4 ms·

Another thing that some people don't realize is that this reconciliation bill could be the last attempt at Biden passing any meaningful legislation. If it fails

by m_ke 5y ago

Another thing that some people don't realize is that this reconciliation bill could be the last attempt at Biden passing any meaningful legislation. If it fails dems are guaranteed to lose seats in the midterms, giving up their slim majority and effectively turning Biden into a lame duck president.

jimbob45 5y ago
I'm happy to disagree with you on that one. Consider the actual Senate elections[0]. There are 20 R seats up vs 14 D seats. The R side is mathematically on the defense. In addition, if you look at the forecasts, most of the seats are foregone conclusions - we're down to ~5 seats that will be actual contests. This isn't to say one side will or will not win but neither side is likely to get the decisive win that each want. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elec...
- m_ke 5y ago
  I hope you're right but: 1. His approval numbers are tanking https://news.gallup.com/poll/354872/biden-approval-rating-hits-new-low-harris.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/354872/biden-approval-rating-hi... 2. Summer is just ending and we're up to 2000 Americans dying from COVID a day, once cold weather hits the northern states we'll probably see those numbers rise even more. 3. Thanks to the filibuster reconciliation is the only chance democrats have at passing anything through the senate. If the infrastructure deal fails we'll see none of the campaign promises pass. 4. Depending on how China handles Evergrande, there's a decent chance that we'll see the stock market tank in the next 6 months.
- munk-a 5y ago
  As Bernie is getting a bit older he might chose this election to stand down as well - but even if a "republican" won the seat it'd be a VT Republican (maybe even Gov. Scott) so that race might be more interesting than it might appear now - but the conclusion is probably going to be pretty predictably liberal.
  - jimbob45 5y ago
    Bernie’s an interesting one. He and Warren should have been appointed high seats in the WH but instead had to occupy their senate seats because their governors are Rs (and would have appointed Rs in their vacancies, wrecking the majority). The minute it becomes clear that the spending bill won’t pass, the DNC should shrewdly push the two of them into government positions to galvanize enthusiasm for the 2022 election. Granted, that requires the DNC to be capable of shrewd moves and I don’t recall the last time the DNC or the RNC actually made a shrewd move.

by m_ke 5y ago

jimbob45 5y ago

I'm happy to disagree with you on that one. Consider the actual Senate elections[0]. There are 20 R seats up vs 14 D seats. The R side is mathematically on the defense. In addition, if you look at the forecasts, most of the seats are foregone conclusions - we're down to ~5 seats that will be actual contests. This isn't to say one side will or will not win but neither side is likely to get the decisive win that each want. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elec...

m_ke 5y ago
I hope you're right but: 1. His approval numbers are tanking https://news.gallup.com/poll/354872/biden-approval-rating-hits-new-low-harris.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/354872/biden-approval-rating-hi... 2. Summer is just ending and we're up to 2000 Americans dying from COVID a day, once cold weather hits the northern states we'll probably see those numbers rise even more. 3. Thanks to the filibuster reconciliation is the only chance democrats have at passing anything through the senate. If the infrastructure deal fails we'll see none of the campaign promises pass. 4. Depending on how China handles Evergrande, there's a decent chance that we'll see the stock market tank in the next 6 months.
munk-a 5y ago
As Bernie is getting a bit older he might chose this election to stand down as well - but even if a "republican" won the seat it'd be a VT Republican (maybe even Gov. Scott) so that race might be more interesting than it might appear now - but the conclusion is probably going to be pretty predictably liberal.
- jimbob45 5y ago
  Bernie’s an interesting one. He and Warren should have been appointed high seats in the WH but instead had to occupy their senate seats because their governors are Rs (and would have appointed Rs in their vacancies, wrecking the majority). The minute it becomes clear that the spending bill won’t pass, the DNC should shrewdly push the two of them into government positions to galvanize enthusiasm for the 2022 election. Granted, that requires the DNC to be capable of shrewd moves and I don’t recall the last time the DNC or the RNC actually made a shrewd move.