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Your opinion is duly noted, my opinion is that your opinion has little bearing on what the price of BTC will be if the purchasing power of a dollar drops quickl

by gfodor 5y ago

Your opinion is duly noted, my opinion is that your opinion has little bearing on what the price of BTC will be if the purchasing power of a dollar drops quickly. My prediction is that demand for it will surge and so the price will go up somewhat inversely. I'll note that you're not taking the counter position, just stating why that would be a "very bad idea" for people to demand it. I'm guessing you've been saying the same thing as the price has gone up to $50k. At some point you'll either be proven right in a massive collapse or will have to capitulate that the market is not irrational. What is your threshold? (Year/price threshold where you'd capitulate.) If you're on your death bed and BTC is worth $1M, will you change your mind, or just presume you didn't live long enough to see yourself proven right?

jollybean 5y ago
You talk exactly like an MLM salesperson. Do you have a seminar I can register for? ... But seriously, people will speculate on things and bubbles will happen in all assets, some are more resilient than others. While the future is never easy to know, your predictions can be dismissed out of hand because we definitely have some 'hard parameters' we have to deal with. BTC is definitely an outlet for illegal activity and tax evasion, and to the extent that it becomes material in that way, it will just be banned. And when it's banned in China, EU, USA, UK, Aussie, Canada, Japan, Korea etc. - well it probably won't be of much use to anyone. No regime will allow their tax base to be challenged in that way. And neither will the population, so the banning will be a popular measure. So by nature if it's own design, it can only be an annoying parlour game.
- gfodor 5y ago
  Why resort to personal attacks? You can dismiss my predictions all you want, they're still predictions. Maybe instead of just dismissing them, state your own.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    Because arguments such as "You will regret on your deathbed not going BTC when it could go to $1M" is not an argument, it's something worse than ad hominem - it's snake oil / infomercial marketing masquerading as reason. At least ad hominem is honest. Consider the inanity of BTC trading at $1M, something so utterly volatile couldn't feasibly be used as a currency, for much the same reason we cannot use it now, it's deflationary: nobody wants to spend it, they want to hold it and believe in magic. That's the last thing you want in a currency, it means circulation dries up. BTC has already killed itself as a currency for reasons obvious before it's inception. Chiming in on boards with 'to the moon' / 'don't lose out' / 'you too could be a millionaire' rhetoric is not helping.
    - gfodor 5y ago
      Hilarious - I never said anything about regret. I said simply that either you’ll be proven right in a crash, have some point where you’d be willing to reverse your position, or just never change your mind. These three scenarios are obviously the only outcomes. So I was wondering if you could write down a point in terms of time + price where you’d change your mind. If not, and there is no other scenario where you would, then you’re holding an unfalsifiable position.
- not_really 5y ago
  Personal attacks are a weak argument, friend.

by gfodor 5y ago

jollybean 5y ago

You talk exactly like an MLM salesperson. Do you have a seminar I can register for? ... But seriously, people will speculate on things and bubbles will happen in all assets, some are more resilient than others. While the future is never easy to know, your predictions can be dismissed out of hand because we definitely have some 'hard parameters' we have to deal with. BTC is definitely an outlet for illegal activity and tax evasion, and to the extent that it becomes material in that way, it will just be banned. And when it's banned in China, EU, USA, UK, Aussie, Canada, Japan, Korea etc. - well it probably won't be of much use to anyone. No regime will allow their tax base to be challenged in that way. And neither will the population, so the banning will be a popular measure. So by nature if it's own design, it can only be an annoying parlour game.

gfodor 5y ago
Why resort to personal attacks? You can dismiss my predictions all you want, they're still predictions. Maybe instead of just dismissing them, state your own.
- jollybean 5y ago
  Because arguments such as "You will regret on your deathbed not going BTC when it could go to $1M" is not an argument, it's something worse than ad hominem - it's snake oil / infomercial marketing masquerading as reason. At least ad hominem is honest. Consider the inanity of BTC trading at $1M, something so utterly volatile couldn't feasibly be used as a currency, for much the same reason we cannot use it now, it's deflationary: nobody wants to spend it, they want to hold it and believe in magic. That's the last thing you want in a currency, it means circulation dries up. BTC has already killed itself as a currency for reasons obvious before it's inception. Chiming in on boards with 'to the moon' / 'don't lose out' / 'you too could be a millionaire' rhetoric is not helping.
  - gfodor 5y ago
    Hilarious - I never said anything about regret. I said simply that either you’ll be proven right in a crash, have some point where you’d be willing to reverse your position, or just never change your mind. These three scenarios are obviously the only outcomes. So I was wondering if you could write down a point in terms of time + price where you’d change your mind. If not, and there is no other scenario where you would, then you’re holding an unfalsifiable position.
not_really 5y ago
Personal attacks are a weak argument, friend.