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If anyone is interested, I've been building dashboards that display trades made by U.S. congressmen and estimate their returns over time from their trading whil

If anyone is interested, I've been building dashboards that display trades made by U.S. congressmen and estimate their returns over time from their trading while in office. https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/senatetrading https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/senatetrading https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/housetrading https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/housetrading One weakness of the performance visualization is that some of the most extreme results are from people who have only made one or two trades while in office, as their returns are more volatile off of those few transactions.

Emma_Goldman 5y ago
Very cool. It would be good if you could overlay Congress' returns with the returns of the market, or a median institutional investor, for comparison. Also, to disaggregate investments by asset class, active/passive funds, etc., so we can really figure out what's going on. Those things make a big difference. I realise this is a passion project though, and that's probably too much work.
nielsbot 5y ago
What’s the lag time on congressional trade reporting? Too bad it’s not fast enough for me to make the same trades. (And would it be considered insider trading then?)
vdalal 5y ago
https://housestockwatcher.com/ https://housestockwatcher.com/ & https://senatetockwatcher.com/ https://senatetockwatcher.com/ ref: NPR article https://www.npr.org/2021/09/21/1039313011/tiktokers-are-trading-stocks-by-watching-what-members-of-congress-do https://www.npr.org/2021/09/21/1039313011/tiktokers-are-trad...
quickthrowman 5y ago
> and estimate their returns over time from their trading while in office. Sorry, but there is no possible way to do this with any sort of precision or accuracy with a 45 day lag time on reporting trades.
- nzealand 5y ago
  The disclosures include the date the trade was made. The only ambiguity is the amount invested. Also, estimate <> precision or accuracy :)
nzealand 5y ago
Does it measure performance vs the market? E.g. If I followed Nancy Pelosi's disclosed trades on the day that she disclosed them in accordance with her minimum allocations, I would outperform S&P 500 by 7.7% pa? Btw, I think something is wrong with your calculations for Derek Kilmer. The poor chap is trading index funds and somehow is performing worse than just about anyone else.

Emma_Goldman 5y ago

Very cool. It would be good if you could overlay Congress' returns with the returns of the market, or a median institutional investor, for comparison. Also, to disaggregate investments by asset class, active/passive funds, etc., so we can really figure out what's going on. Those things make a big difference. I realise this is a passion project though, and that's probably too much work.

nielsbot 5y ago

What’s the lag time on congressional trade reporting? Too bad it’s not fast enough for me to make the same trades. (And would it be considered insider trading then?)

vdalal 5y ago

https://housestockwatcher.com/ https://housestockwatcher.com/ & https://senatetockwatcher.com/ https://senatetockwatcher.com/ ref: NPR article https://www.npr.org/2021/09/21/1039313011/tiktokers-are-trading-stocks-by-watching-what-members-of-congress-do https://www.npr.org/2021/09/21/1039313011/tiktokers-are-trad...

quickthrowman 5y ago

> and estimate their returns over time from their trading while in office. Sorry, but there is no possible way to do this with any sort of precision or accuracy with a 45 day lag time on reporting trades.

nzealand 5y ago
The disclosures include the date the trade was made. The only ambiguity is the amount invested. Also, estimate <> precision or accuracy :)

nzealand 5y ago

Does it measure performance vs the market? E.g. If I followed Nancy Pelosi's disclosed trades on the day that she disclosed them in accordance with her minimum allocations, I would outperform S&P 500 by 7.7% pa? Btw, I think something is wrong with your calculations for Derek Kilmer. The poor chap is trading index funds and somehow is performing worse than just about anyone else.