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Do you seriously propose that 'defund the police' has no effect whatsoever on the murder rate? Here is a list of largest 100 American cities by party affiliatio

Do you seriously propose that 'defund the police' has no effect whatsoever on the murder rate? Here is a list of largest 100 American cities by party affiliation. Feel free to research whether political affiliation of the city leadership, thus propensity to embrace 'defund the police' policies, has anything to do with the spike in murders. Unfortunately I am not aware of professional studies of the matter. Perhaps there will never be. Given an academic system that is 99% affiliated with one political party, difficult to find people willing to scuttle their careers by researching topics that might place policies associated with that political party in anything but the most positive light. https://ballotpedia.org/Party_affiliation_of_the_mayors_of_the_100_largest_cities https://ballotpedia.org/Party_affiliation_of_the_mayors_of_t... Edit: Here is a chart showing sharp decline in 'officers in service' numbers in a progressive West Coast city that embraced 'defund the police': https://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2020/10/after-september-spike-in-seattle-police-separations-durkan-warns-against-deeper-department-cutbacks https://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2020/10/after-september-s... And the spike in murders in the same city: https://www.seattlepi.com/local/seattlenews/article/2020-crime-Seattle-highest-homicide-rate-15864266.php https://www.seattlepi.com/local/seattlenews/article/2020-cri... > Crime dashboard data shows that 52 homicides occurred in 2020 compared to 35 in 2019 — an increase of 48.57%.

nickthemagicman 5y ago
Thanks for those references. Being from New Orleans, a majority black city, its absolutely crazy to me that this is even a debate. I think these BLM people seriously believe that police do more harm than good in black communities. And they think that there's no co-orelation between funding and performance for the police.
- angelzen 5y ago
  There is a tragedy of the commons at play, of which 'defund the police' is but the last installment. The local Seattle prosecutor was notorious for years for not prosecuting crime. He recently lost his primary and will likely be replaced from the left by a true 'defund the police' candidate. Seattle hasn't even experienced 'defund the police' to its fullest extent, the worst is yet to come. > A repeat offender who was released from the King County Jail last weekend after attacking a security guard in Seattle was re-arrested a few hours later for a brutal attack that ended with that victim being hospitalized in intensive care, according to court documents and police. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/assault-suspect-leaves-king-county-jail-but-re-arrested-hours-later-for-brutal-attack/ar-BB1ckVVm https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/assault-suspect-leaves-... https://www.teenvogue.com/story/abolitionist-candidates-running-for-office https://www.teenvogue.com/story/abolitionist-candidates-runn...
  - mijkal 5y ago
    'Defund the police' means we reallocate the every-increasing funding for armed agents who want for nothing (not unlike the US military — look at the municipal budget allocations for police vs schools etc) and invest those funds into: 1) Alternative first responder services, such as mental health experts to deescalate incidents that far too often end in tragedy 2) Invest in preventative measures to ensure communities and society at-large is healthy: provide educational, medical, and economic opportunities to materially improve people's lives And more generally, police in America are long overdue for major reform. 'Qualified immunity' has let officers use violent and lethal force with impunity. They are supposed to be the trained professionals, yet their bar for use of force is _lower_ than an untrained civilian's. The oversight boards are a joke, with no teeth to actually hold police accountable. It's crazy when you think about all the principles espoused by America re: limited gov't and power to the People yet we have this superset class above the law they are meant to enforce. I expect them to be held to a higher standard, and to actually know the laws and people's rights so as not to infringe on them without consequence. And from talking with a (civilian) criminologist inside SPD who studies this up close, the mentality of cops is disturbing — very 'us-vs-them' — they aren't 'peace officers' who 'protect and serve', but are above us and demand 'respect' and unquestioning compliance above all else. They're the high school bullies equipped with guns and a badge. Their training by US/Israeli ex-military is disturbing because they react to all of us a potential mortal threats rather than as a member of a common community. There's a reason we had Posse Comitatus, but now we've militarized police at the local level, and surprise — they act like it. I enthusiastically am voting for NTK in the general. The fact is heavily-funded and well-armed police for decades _has not_ and cannot improve the situation anymore than the military occupation in Afghanistan did. Crime is a symptom of more systemic issues, particularly poverty and loss of faith in public institutions. In short, hopelessness and despair.
derstander 5y ago
> Do you seriously propose that 'defund the police' has no effect whatsoever on the murder rate? This is a straw man of the parent’s position. They say “ blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is a lazy oversimplification”, not that it had “no effect whatsoever”. It certainly seems plausible to me that having loads of people — particularly those in lower socio-economic strata - without employment for an extended period of time could certainly contribute to crime rate increases. There’s no need for straw-manning/hysterics here, we can have a measured conversation or debate.
- angelzen 5y ago
  Compare: > Honestly, blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is a lazy oversimplification Alternatively: > While the 'defund the police' movement is likely making matters worse, there are other potential confounding causes. For example, having loads of people — particularly those in lower socio-economic strata - without employment for an extended period of time [...] I am all for the 2nd approach, but I will object to the 1st.
  - xmprt 5y ago
    Your second approach is just a different way of saying the first.
curriculum 5y ago
As a counterpoint to your example of Seattle, Republican-led Fort Worth saw it's homicide numbers increase by 59% in 2020 (even more than Seattle) despite increasing their police budget over the same period: https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/crime/article248169720.html https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/crime/article248169...
- Proven 5y ago
  1) You could also find some not so random city where murders decreased. I don't think anyone has any doubts where murders went up and why. 2) From your article it shows it could be due to a very similar reason (the difference is here they didn't intentionally cut down on it). > Manny Ramirez, the president of a union representing officers, has said that a decrease in proactive policing is a factor.
renewiltord 5y ago
That’s nothing. You should see the graph of pirates vs global warming. To think Bluebeard was rescuing us from the deleterious effects of too much CO2 in the air!
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  The graph of illegal immigrants to crime is crazy too!
- Zababa 5y ago
  I would bet that there are more pirates now that at pretty much any point in history.
  - renewiltord 5y ago
    They must be causing global warming.
pseudalopex 5y ago
Seattle cut less than 1% of the 2020 police budget in August.[1] About as much as they increased it from 2019.[2] And your source for the murder spike said other violent crimes decreased. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-race-protests-seattle-idUSKCN2570CM https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-race-protests-seat... [2] https://www.seattle.gov/documents/Departments/FinanceDepartment/19adoptedbudget/SPD.pdf https://www.seattle.gov/documents/Departments/FinanceDepartm...
- angelzen 5y ago
  https://apnews.com/article/seattle-police-government-and-politics-e0ce15086d8bf06502659386148d94fa https://apnews.com/article/seattle-police-government-and-pol... > Over 200 Seattle police officers quit amid nation protests, April 28, 2021 > Police Chief Adrian Diaz said Tuesday that the department is in a “staffing crisis” after more than 180 police officers quit last year and another 66 officers left their jobs so far this year, according to police data. “We are at record lows in the city right now. I have about 1,080 deployable officers. This is the lowest I’ve seen our department,” Diaz told KING-TV. Why would the city lose 20% of its police force in 2 years? It is a mystery. What we know beyond reasonable doubt: * The loss in deployable officers is not related to the City Council publicly embracing 'defund the police'. * The loss in deployable officers has very little to do with the mysterious spike in murders that occurred during the same time period. Obviously anyone that raises absolutely unfounded concerns around those points is just exhibiting hysteric lazy thinking.
  - pseudalopex 5y ago
    You seem determined to ignore murders spiked in places unlike Seattle last year too. And how does your hypothesis explain less total violent crime? You haven't shown the city council embraced defunding the police either. They cut a fraction of a percent from the police budget last year. Lots of cities had to make cuts to lots of departments. The $5.4 million the article said they fought about this year is under 2%. And it's just what the police spent over budget last year.[1] [1] https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-police-have-exceeded-overtime-budget-city-council-will-consider-additional-cut-next-year/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-p...
kenjackson 5y ago
Has there been any data that indicates that policing has an impact on murder rates ever? Even the murders in the CHAZ in Seattle at the height of defund the police were much more spur of the moment incidents. Not the type of thing someone is likely to reconsider if the police force were doubled. And given that the murder rate increase was national and not regional, it seems much more likely that it was nationally impacted. Maybe something like a pandemic which led to social stresses, economic stresses, and increases in gun purchases. Another city in Washington, Spokane, saw about a tripling in homicides in 2020 and there was no "defund the police" movement in that city, no reduction in police force -- and also has a Republican mayor and a generally much more conservative take than Seattle. You're simply reaching for a narrative rather than looking at the data.

nickthemagicman 5y ago

Thanks for those references. Being from New Orleans, a majority black city, its absolutely crazy to me that this is even a debate. I think these BLM people seriously believe that police do more harm than good in black communities. And they think that there's no co-orelation between funding and performance for the police.

angelzen 5y ago
There is a tragedy of the commons at play, of which 'defund the police' is but the last installment. The local Seattle prosecutor was notorious for years for not prosecuting crime. He recently lost his primary and will likely be replaced from the left by a true 'defund the police' candidate. Seattle hasn't even experienced 'defund the police' to its fullest extent, the worst is yet to come. > A repeat offender who was released from the King County Jail last weekend after attacking a security guard in Seattle was re-arrested a few hours later for a brutal attack that ended with that victim being hospitalized in intensive care, according to court documents and police. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/assault-suspect-leaves-king-county-jail-but-re-arrested-hours-later-for-brutal-attack/ar-BB1ckVVm https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/assault-suspect-leaves-... https://www.teenvogue.com/story/abolitionist-candidates-running-for-office https://www.teenvogue.com/story/abolitionist-candidates-runn...
- mijkal 5y ago
  'Defund the police' means we reallocate the every-increasing funding for armed agents who want for nothing (not unlike the US military — look at the municipal budget allocations for police vs schools etc) and invest those funds into: 1) Alternative first responder services, such as mental health experts to deescalate incidents that far too often end in tragedy 2) Invest in preventative measures to ensure communities and society at-large is healthy: provide educational, medical, and economic opportunities to materially improve people's lives And more generally, police in America are long overdue for major reform. 'Qualified immunity' has let officers use violent and lethal force with impunity. They are supposed to be the trained professionals, yet their bar for use of force is _lower_ than an untrained civilian's. The oversight boards are a joke, with no teeth to actually hold police accountable. It's crazy when you think about all the principles espoused by America re: limited gov't and power to the People yet we have this superset class above the law they are meant to enforce. I expect them to be held to a higher standard, and to actually know the laws and people's rights so as not to infringe on them without consequence. And from talking with a (civilian) criminologist inside SPD who studies this up close, the mentality of cops is disturbing — very 'us-vs-them' — they aren't 'peace officers' who 'protect and serve', but are above us and demand 'respect' and unquestioning compliance above all else. They're the high school bullies equipped with guns and a badge. Their training by US/Israeli ex-military is disturbing because they react to all of us a potential mortal threats rather than as a member of a common community. There's a reason we had Posse Comitatus, but now we've militarized police at the local level, and surprise — they act like it. I enthusiastically am voting for NTK in the general. The fact is heavily-funded and well-armed police for decades _has not_ and cannot improve the situation anymore than the military occupation in Afghanistan did. Crime is a symptom of more systemic issues, particularly poverty and loss of faith in public institutions. In short, hopelessness and despair.

derstander 5y ago

> Do you seriously propose that 'defund the police' has no effect whatsoever on the murder rate? This is a straw man of the parent’s position. They say “ blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is a lazy oversimplification”, not that it had “no effect whatsoever”. It certainly seems plausible to me that having loads of people — particularly those in lower socio-economic strata - without employment for an extended period of time could certainly contribute to crime rate increases. There’s no need for straw-manning/hysterics here, we can have a measured conversation or debate.

angelzen 5y ago
Compare: > Honestly, blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is a lazy oversimplification Alternatively: > While the 'defund the police' movement is likely making matters worse, there are other potential confounding causes. For example, having loads of people — particularly those in lower socio-economic strata - without employment for an extended period of time [...] I am all for the 2nd approach, but I will object to the 1st.
- xmprt 5y ago
  Your second approach is just a different way of saying the first.

curriculum 5y ago

As a counterpoint to your example of Seattle, Republican-led Fort Worth saw it's homicide numbers increase by 59% in 2020 (even more than Seattle) despite increasing their police budget over the same period: https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/crime/article248169720.html https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/crime/article248169...

Proven 5y ago
1) You could also find some not so random city where murders decreased. I don't think anyone has any doubts where murders went up and why. 2) From your article it shows it could be due to a very similar reason (the difference is here they didn't intentionally cut down on it). > Manny Ramirez, the president of a union representing officers, has said that a decrease in proactive policing is a factor.

renewiltord 5y ago

That’s nothing. You should see the graph of pirates vs global warming. To think Bluebeard was rescuing us from the deleterious effects of too much CO2 in the air!

nickthemagicman 5y ago
The graph of illegal immigrants to crime is crazy too!
Zababa 5y ago
I would bet that there are more pirates now that at pretty much any point in history.
- renewiltord 5y ago
  They must be causing global warming.

pseudalopex 5y ago

Seattle cut less than 1% of the 2020 police budget in August.[1] About as much as they increased it from 2019.[2] And your source for the murder spike said other violent crimes decreased. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-race-protests-seattle-idUSKCN2570CM https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-race-protests-seat... [2] https://www.seattle.gov/documents/Departments/FinanceDepartment/19adoptedbudget/SPD.pdf https://www.seattle.gov/documents/Departments/FinanceDepartm...

angelzen 5y ago
https://apnews.com/article/seattle-police-government-and-politics-e0ce15086d8bf06502659386148d94fa https://apnews.com/article/seattle-police-government-and-pol... > Over 200 Seattle police officers quit amid nation protests, April 28, 2021 > Police Chief Adrian Diaz said Tuesday that the department is in a “staffing crisis” after more than 180 police officers quit last year and another 66 officers left their jobs so far this year, according to police data. “We are at record lows in the city right now. I have about 1,080 deployable officers. This is the lowest I’ve seen our department,” Diaz told KING-TV. Why would the city lose 20% of its police force in 2 years? It is a mystery. What we know beyond reasonable doubt: * The loss in deployable officers is not related to the City Council publicly embracing 'defund the police'. * The loss in deployable officers has very little to do with the mysterious spike in murders that occurred during the same time period. Obviously anyone that raises absolutely unfounded concerns around those points is just exhibiting hysteric lazy thinking.
- pseudalopex 5y ago
  You seem determined to ignore murders spiked in places unlike Seattle last year too. And how does your hypothesis explain less total violent crime? You haven't shown the city council embraced defunding the police either. They cut a fraction of a percent from the police budget last year. Lots of cities had to make cuts to lots of departments. The $5.4 million the article said they fought about this year is under 2%. And it's just what the police spent over budget last year.[1] [1] https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-police-have-exceeded-overtime-budget-city-council-will-consider-additional-cut-next-year/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-p...

kenjackson 5y ago

Has there been any data that indicates that policing has an impact on murder rates ever? Even the murders in the CHAZ in Seattle at the height of defund the police were much more spur of the moment incidents. Not the type of thing someone is likely to reconsider if the police force were doubled. And given that the murder rate increase was national and not regional, it seems much more likely that it was nationally impacted. Maybe something like a pandemic which led to social stresses, economic stresses, and increases in gun purchases. Another city in Washington, Spokane, saw about a tripling in homicides in 2020 and there was no "defund the police" movement in that city, no reduction in police force -- and also has a Republican mayor and a generally much more conservative take than Seattle. You're simply reaching for a narrative rather than looking at the data.