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As the article mentions, murder rates rose across the country. And not many cities actually had official support, let alone took action, for defunding or restr

As the article mentions, murder rates rose across the country. And not many cities actually had official support, let alone took action, for defunding or restructuring police forces. Honestly, blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is a lazy oversimplification. Even if cops decided to patrol or investigate less because of that movement, I wouldn't expect a massive spike in the murder rate. Sure, people might pick pockets or rob houses if they think nobody's watching, but murder?

nickthemagicman 5y ago
No actually you're wrong. Believe it or not, there's a direct co-orelation between police having resources available to fight crime and reduced crime! Crazy right? https://archive.is/5fIqM https://archive.is/5fIqM But we can't eliminate the possibility that all those thousands of new murders were all done by racist police officers. Has anyone looked into this? Could be a huge story. Wouldn't want anyone to get the crazy idea that police actually do good things for black communities.
- eurasiantiger 5y ago
  How does that article prove your claim?
  - nickthemagicman 5y ago
    Well I'll let the headline of the Washington post article do the 'splainin' "Cities Reverse Defunding the Police Amid Rising Crime"
    - eurasiantiger 5y ago
      Your proposition: 1. Cities increase police funding in response to increased crime 2. Therefore, decreasing police funding increases crime. However, 2. does not follow from 1, since many other factors affect crime rates, from legislation to enforcement and from social issues to societal issues. In fact, even the inverse of 2. does not follow from 1: increasing police funding does not decrease crime rates. If you disagree, please provide an academic source for the direct causal relationship between police funding and crime rate.
      - nickthemagicman 5y ago
        There's academia and then there's real life and in real life the leaders are realizing Defunding the Police is a stupid idea. Can you explain why these leaders with highly paid staff of analysts who have way more knowledge and data, are doing this? EDIT: while you're downvoting me, be sure to downvote the leaders and news media who lied to you as well. """In New York City, Mayor Bill de Blasio said he would reinstate $92 million for a new precinct after scrapping the project last summer. The mayor of Baltimore, who led efforts as a city councilman to cut the police budget by $22 million last year, recently proposed a $27 million increase. After attacks on Asian-Americans and a rise in homicides in Oakland, Calif., city lawmakers in April restored $3.3 million of the $29 million in police cuts, and the mayor is now proposing to increase the department’s budget by $24 million. Los Angeles’s mayor has proposed an increase of about $50 million after the city cut $150 million from its police department last year."""
        jbboehr 5y ago
        "I told you so" never felt so good.
        eurasiantiger 5y ago
        What’s this army of dumb doing on HN?
        nickthemagicman 5y ago
        That's just an article, depicting the mayors of 4 of the biggest cities in America, rolling back their cuts to defunding the police. Like that thing where someone says something, but then does the opposite. There's a term for that but it escapes me right now. Edit: Oh yeah just remembered, that term is Lying. lol
angelzen 5y ago
Do you seriously propose that 'defund the police' has no effect whatsoever on the murder rate? Here is a list of largest 100 American cities by party affiliation. Feel free to research whether political affiliation of the city leadership, thus propensity to embrace 'defund the police' policies, has anything to do with the spike in murders. Unfortunately I am not aware of professional studies of the matter. Perhaps there will never be. Given an academic system that is 99% affiliated with one political party, difficult to find people willing to scuttle their careers by researching topics that might place policies associated with that political party in anything but the most positive light. https://ballotpedia.org/Party_affiliation_of_the_mayors_of_the_100_largest_cities https://ballotpedia.org/Party_affiliation_of_the_mayors_of_t... Edit: Here is a chart showing sharp decline in 'officers in service' numbers in a progressive West Coast city that embraced 'defund the police': https://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2020/10/after-september-spike-in-seattle-police-separations-durkan-warns-against-deeper-department-cutbacks https://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2020/10/after-september-s... And the spike in murders in the same city: https://www.seattlepi.com/local/seattlenews/article/2020-crime-Seattle-highest-homicide-rate-15864266.php https://www.seattlepi.com/local/seattlenews/article/2020-cri... > Crime dashboard data shows that 52 homicides occurred in 2020 compared to 35 in 2019 — an increase of 48.57%.
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  Thanks for those references. Being from New Orleans, a majority black city, its absolutely crazy to me that this is even a debate. I think these BLM people seriously believe that police do more harm than good in black communities. And they think that there's no co-orelation between funding and performance for the police.
  - angelzen 5y ago
    There is a tragedy of the commons at play, of which 'defund the police' is but the last installment. The local Seattle prosecutor was notorious for years for not prosecuting crime. He recently lost his primary and will likely be replaced from the left by a true 'defund the police' candidate. Seattle hasn't even experienced 'defund the police' to its fullest extent, the worst is yet to come. > A repeat offender who was released from the King County Jail last weekend after attacking a security guard in Seattle was re-arrested a few hours later for a brutal attack that ended with that victim being hospitalized in intensive care, according to court documents and police. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/assault-suspect-leaves-king-county-jail-but-re-arrested-hours-later-for-brutal-attack/ar-BB1ckVVm https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/assault-suspect-leaves-... https://www.teenvogue.com/story/abolitionist-candidates-running-for-office https://www.teenvogue.com/story/abolitionist-candidates-runn...
darthnebula 5y ago
>>Honestly, blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is a lazy oversimplification No, I think ignoring the facts is clinging to your ideology at all costs. Not many cities had official support? You can't be serious.
iammisc 5y ago
This is the most disingenuous form of misinformation imaginable. While certainly true that murder is up everywhere, it is not true that it is up the same amount. As the article says, murder is up more in cities with pop >100k. Under 25k, the murder rate rose 25%. In larger cities, up to 40%. That is a substantial difference. No one is claiming that some places had fewer murders than before. People are claiming that policies make differences (in this case, population size is a good correlate with party).
- xmprt 5y ago
  Why are you correlating population size with party when you can literally look up the voting records of cities? What's more likely? 1. High population size implies Democratic party policies implies less police funding implies higher murder rate OR 2. High population size implies higher murder rate (potentially because of higher poor populations or more population density or many other reasons that aren't because of party).
  - iammisc 5y ago
    > High population size implies Democratic party policies implies less police funding implies higher murder rate Democratic party politics are correlated with higher population size. This is not controversial. A high population size ought to correlate with more overall murders, but a similar murder rate. Moreover, in many countries, urban areas are less violent.
    - xmprt 5y ago
      I agree with your first statement. However, this is one case where we don't have to make any guesses. City voting records are public. If you actually checked, then you'll see that Democratic and Republican controlled cities have seen an uptick in murder rate. In some cases, Republicans have a higher increase. So this isn't an issue with any particular party. > in many countries, urban areas are less violent This might be because of better mental healthcare, less drug/gang related violence, better gun control, or a variety of factors. If America had the same laws as other countries then this discrepancy would be strange however the US has been very slow at getting up to the current standards that most developed countries have adopted.
floor2 5y ago
Crime doesn't really work the way you're suggesting. Someone robbing houses is directly going to cause a massive uptick in violent crime. What if the resident is home and tries to defend themselves? The victim (of the home invasion) might shoot the invader in self-defense but be charged with murder anyway. Or the robber might kill the homeowner during a struggle even if they only intended to steal property initially. Plus, people aren't inherently "good" and "bad" or "criminals and non-criminals". There's complexity to how being a victim of crime can lead a person to commit other crimes, how "non-violent" crimes can quickly become violent, etc. Blaming "Defund the police" is kinda short-sighted, but certainly there have been massive shifts in how police see themselves, their jobs and their communities and how people see and interact with the police, and that those changes are part of the cascade of changes that lead to increases in murder rates.
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dumpsterdiver 5y ago
You don't have to blame the defunding movement for the rise in homicide rates to wonder if the people in charge thought it through. The scariest part about having my city's police force defunded (aside from cops not wanting to work here anymore) is the realization that my city council members are strongly influenced by the news cycles. News cycles can be tampered with. Truly, what is the news, but a way to tamper with our opinions? Opinions can be changed through repetition, and rage can be incited seemingly with little effort. The modern warfront in the United States is our news feed. You can't exactly waltz an army into a country that's packing nukes. What you can do is hire an army to sway public opinion in a country in order to weaken them. Who knows, maybe next time we'll defund our military.

nickthemagicman 5y ago

No actually you're wrong. Believe it or not, there's a direct co-orelation between police having resources available to fight crime and reduced crime! Crazy right? https://archive.is/5fIqM https://archive.is/5fIqM But we can't eliminate the possibility that all those thousands of new murders were all done by racist police officers. Has anyone looked into this? Could be a huge story. Wouldn't want anyone to get the crazy idea that police actually do good things for black communities.

eurasiantiger 5y ago
How does that article prove your claim?
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  Well I'll let the headline of the Washington post article do the 'splainin' "Cities Reverse Defunding the Police Amid Rising Crime"
  - eurasiantiger 5y ago
    Your proposition: 1. Cities increase police funding in response to increased crime 2. Therefore, decreasing police funding increases crime. However, 2. does not follow from 1, since many other factors affect crime rates, from legislation to enforcement and from social issues to societal issues. In fact, even the inverse of 2. does not follow from 1: increasing police funding does not decrease crime rates. If you disagree, please provide an academic source for the direct causal relationship between police funding and crime rate.
    - nickthemagicman 5y ago
      There's academia and then there's real life and in real life the leaders are realizing Defunding the Police is a stupid idea. Can you explain why these leaders with highly paid staff of analysts who have way more knowledge and data, are doing this? EDIT: while you're downvoting me, be sure to downvote the leaders and news media who lied to you as well. """In New York City, Mayor Bill de Blasio said he would reinstate $92 million for a new precinct after scrapping the project last summer. The mayor of Baltimore, who led efforts as a city councilman to cut the police budget by $22 million last year, recently proposed a $27 million increase. After attacks on Asian-Americans and a rise in homicides in Oakland, Calif., city lawmakers in April restored $3.3 million of the $29 million in police cuts, and the mayor is now proposing to increase the department’s budget by $24 million. Los Angeles’s mayor has proposed an increase of about $50 million after the city cut $150 million from its police department last year."""
      - jbboehr 5y ago
        "I told you so" never felt so good.
        eurasiantiger 5y ago
        What’s this army of dumb doing on HN?
        nickthemagicman 5y ago
        That's just an article, depicting the mayors of 4 of the biggest cities in America, rolling back their cuts to defunding the police. Like that thing where someone says something, but then does the opposite. There's a term for that but it escapes me right now. Edit: Oh yeah just remembered, that term is Lying. lol

angelzen 5y ago

Do you seriously propose that 'defund the police' has no effect whatsoever on the murder rate? Here is a list of largest 100 American cities by party affiliation. Feel free to research whether political affiliation of the city leadership, thus propensity to embrace 'defund the police' policies, has anything to do with the spike in murders. Unfortunately I am not aware of professional studies of the matter. Perhaps there will never be. Given an academic system that is 99% affiliated with one political party, difficult to find people willing to scuttle their careers by researching topics that might place policies associated with that political party in anything but the most positive light. https://ballotpedia.org/Party_affiliation_of_the_mayors_of_the_100_largest_cities https://ballotpedia.org/Party_affiliation_of_the_mayors_of_t... Edit: Here is a chart showing sharp decline in 'officers in service' numbers in a progressive West Coast city that embraced 'defund the police': https://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2020/10/after-september-spike-in-seattle-police-separations-durkan-warns-against-deeper-department-cutbacks https://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2020/10/after-september-s... And the spike in murders in the same city: https://www.seattlepi.com/local/seattlenews/article/2020-crime-Seattle-highest-homicide-rate-15864266.php https://www.seattlepi.com/local/seattlenews/article/2020-cri... > Crime dashboard data shows that 52 homicides occurred in 2020 compared to 35 in 2019 — an increase of 48.57%.

nickthemagicman 5y ago
Thanks for those references. Being from New Orleans, a majority black city, its absolutely crazy to me that this is even a debate. I think these BLM people seriously believe that police do more harm than good in black communities. And they think that there's no co-orelation between funding and performance for the police.
- angelzen 5y ago
  There is a tragedy of the commons at play, of which 'defund the police' is but the last installment. The local Seattle prosecutor was notorious for years for not prosecuting crime. He recently lost his primary and will likely be replaced from the left by a true 'defund the police' candidate. Seattle hasn't even experienced 'defund the police' to its fullest extent, the worst is yet to come. > A repeat offender who was released from the King County Jail last weekend after attacking a security guard in Seattle was re-arrested a few hours later for a brutal attack that ended with that victim being hospitalized in intensive care, according to court documents and police. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/assault-suspect-leaves-king-county-jail-but-re-arrested-hours-later-for-brutal-attack/ar-BB1ckVVm https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/assault-suspect-leaves-... https://www.teenvogue.com/story/abolitionist-candidates-running-for-office https://www.teenvogue.com/story/abolitionist-candidates-runn...

darthnebula 5y ago

>>Honestly, blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is a lazy oversimplification No, I think ignoring the facts is clinging to your ideology at all costs. Not many cities had official support? You can't be serious.

iammisc 5y ago

This is the most disingenuous form of misinformation imaginable. While certainly true that murder is up everywhere, it is not true that it is up the same amount. As the article says, murder is up more in cities with pop >100k. Under 25k, the murder rate rose 25%. In larger cities, up to 40%. That is a substantial difference. No one is claiming that some places had fewer murders than before. People are claiming that policies make differences (in this case, population size is a good correlate with party).

xmprt 5y ago
Why are you correlating population size with party when you can literally look up the voting records of cities? What's more likely? 1. High population size implies Democratic party policies implies less police funding implies higher murder rate OR 2. High population size implies higher murder rate (potentially because of higher poor populations or more population density or many other reasons that aren't because of party).
- iammisc 5y ago
  > High population size implies Democratic party policies implies less police funding implies higher murder rate Democratic party politics are correlated with higher population size. This is not controversial. A high population size ought to correlate with more overall murders, but a similar murder rate. Moreover, in many countries, urban areas are less violent.
  - xmprt 5y ago
    I agree with your first statement. However, this is one case where we don't have to make any guesses. City voting records are public. If you actually checked, then you'll see that Democratic and Republican controlled cities have seen an uptick in murder rate. In some cases, Republicans have a higher increase. So this isn't an issue with any particular party. > in many countries, urban areas are less violent This might be because of better mental healthcare, less drug/gang related violence, better gun control, or a variety of factors. If America had the same laws as other countries then this discrepancy would be strange however the US has been very slow at getting up to the current standards that most developed countries have adopted.

floor2 5y ago

Crime doesn't really work the way you're suggesting. Someone robbing houses is directly going to cause a massive uptick in violent crime. What if the resident is home and tries to defend themselves? The victim (of the home invasion) might shoot the invader in self-defense but be charged with murder anyway. Or the robber might kill the homeowner during a struggle even if they only intended to steal property initially. Plus, people aren't inherently "good" and "bad" or "criminals and non-criminals". There's complexity to how being a victim of crime can lead a person to commit other crimes, how "non-violent" crimes can quickly become violent, etc. Blaming "Defund the police" is kinda short-sighted, but certainly there have been massive shifts in how police see themselves, their jobs and their communities and how people see and interact with the police, and that those changes are part of the cascade of changes that lead to increases in murder rates.

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dumpsterdiver 5y ago

You don't have to blame the defunding movement for the rise in homicide rates to wonder if the people in charge thought it through. The scariest part about having my city's police force defunded (aside from cops not wanting to work here anymore) is the realization that my city council members are strongly influenced by the news cycles. News cycles can be tampered with. Truly, what is the news, but a way to tamper with our opinions? Opinions can be changed through repetition, and rage can be incited seemingly with little effort. The modern warfront in the United States is our news feed. You can't exactly waltz an army into a country that's packing nukes. What you can do is hire an army to sway public opinion in a country in order to weaken them. Who knows, maybe next time we'll defund our military.