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This article uses the false assumption that Africa and the Islamic World fertility rates would follow the ones of Europe, America and Asia. This assumption whic

by Nesco 5y ago

This article uses the false assumption that Africa and the Islamic World fertility rates would follow the ones of Europe, America and Asia. This assumption which was ludicrous since the beginning has proved false overtime with - incompetent in my opinion - demographers forced to increase their estimates of the peak number of humans earth will host every five years. There may be two P-Bombs: America, East Asia and Europe which spirals toward demographic collapse on one hand and Africa and - a bit less - the Islamic World which spirals toward overpopulation on the other hand. E.g. Egypt which is already overpopulated fails to succeed to drive its fertility rate under 3. Maghreb countries such as Algeria and Morocco actually saw their fertility rates increase again after decreasing for the past decades. And that does even include demographic nightmares like Niger where half the population is systematically under 15

giantg2 5y ago
"This article uses the false assumption that Africa and the Islamic World fertility rates would follow the ones of Europe, America and Asia. This assumption which was ludicrous since the beginning has proved false overtime" Do you have any data for that? It's supposed to follow development and modernization, which seems to still be lagging.
- pepperonipizza 5y ago
  https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_POPSOC_551_0001--why-has-fertility-been-increasing-in.htm#:~:text=The%20fertility%20increase%20observed%20in,their%20children%20earlier%20in%20life https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_POPSOC_551_0001--why-ha....
- Nesco 5y ago
  This article explains a bit the findings: https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2013/08/demographic-transition-stalled-sub-saharan-africa/ https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2013/08/demographic-transiti... Tl;dr Demographers have previously assumed that since Asia followed the same path, the European model of demographic transition was a universal truth. However they underestimated the impact of cultures (in Africa having large families is considered has an assurance as if one of the children succeed the parents will be protected), religion (in Islam even if contraception is legal, one need a valid reason and procreation is heavily encouraged), traditions, genetic differences (I think I read somewhere the age of puberty is a bit lower for people of West African descent) etc. A documentary about this phenomenon in Niger: https://youtu.be/btMUecYNBc4 https://youtu.be/btMUecYNBc4
  - giantg2 5y ago
    But we have seen fertility numbers in Africa drop from about 6 to 4. Infant mortality has greatly decreased too, so the chances of kids surviving is higher. Theres a lot of talk about traditions and cultural norms. Do these people realize that the traditions and culture norms in the US, European, and Asia are not only diverse but have also changed over time as well?
Factorium 5y ago
Fertility is negatively correlated to IQ: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289607000244 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016028960... "There were strong negative correlations found between national IQ and three national indicators of fertility."
ed_balls 5y ago
> Africa and - a bit less - the Islamic World which spirals towards overpopulation on the other hand. I don't think this is true. Every single country is on the decline. They may sill grow in this century, but it's very likely that it would stop in 50 years.
- Nesco 5y ago
  Northern African countries curves seems to be impervious to the final part of the phenomenon, their fertility rates seemingly unable to going under the 2.1 bar and even going the other way. And in the case of Niger, Mali, Nigeria etc, when their TFR would eventually cross the 2.1 limit of demographic transition according to the standard model nearly half the global population would live there at the end of this century. It is insane and completely unsustainable even when not taking climate change and ressources depletion into account
  - ed_balls 5y ago
    That's why it's never gonna happen, they don't have resources to support this population growth.
    - aeternum 5y ago
      Which resources specifically? We are now exceedingly good at growing food, and water is just an energy problem (can use desalination or purification). Solar alone might be sufficient given the cost and efficiency curves.
      - ed_balls 5y ago
        We are, but not Niger.

by Nesco 5y ago

giantg2 5y ago

"This article uses the false assumption that Africa and the Islamic World fertility rates would follow the ones of Europe, America and Asia. This assumption which was ludicrous since the beginning has proved false overtime" Do you have any data for that? It's supposed to follow development and modernization, which seems to still be lagging.

pepperonipizza 5y ago
https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_POPSOC_551_0001--why-has-fertility-been-increasing-in.htm#:~:text=The%20fertility%20increase%20observed%20in,their%20children%20earlier%20in%20life https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_POPSOC_551_0001--why-ha....
Nesco 5y ago
This article explains a bit the findings: https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2013/08/demographic-transition-stalled-sub-saharan-africa/ https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2013/08/demographic-transiti... Tl;dr Demographers have previously assumed that since Asia followed the same path, the European model of demographic transition was a universal truth. However they underestimated the impact of cultures (in Africa having large families is considered has an assurance as if one of the children succeed the parents will be protected), religion (in Islam even if contraception is legal, one need a valid reason and procreation is heavily encouraged), traditions, genetic differences (I think I read somewhere the age of puberty is a bit lower for people of West African descent) etc. A documentary about this phenomenon in Niger: https://youtu.be/btMUecYNBc4 https://youtu.be/btMUecYNBc4
- giantg2 5y ago
  But we have seen fertility numbers in Africa drop from about 6 to 4. Infant mortality has greatly decreased too, so the chances of kids surviving is higher. Theres a lot of talk about traditions and cultural norms. Do these people realize that the traditions and culture norms in the US, European, and Asia are not only diverse but have also changed over time as well?

Factorium 5y ago

Fertility is negatively correlated to IQ: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289607000244 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016028960... "There were strong negative correlations found between national IQ and three national indicators of fertility."

ed_balls 5y ago

> Africa and - a bit less - the Islamic World which spirals towards overpopulation on the other hand. I don't think this is true. Every single country is on the decline. They may sill grow in this century, but it's very likely that it would stop in 50 years.

Nesco 5y ago
Northern African countries curves seems to be impervious to the final part of the phenomenon, their fertility rates seemingly unable to going under the 2.1 bar and even going the other way. And in the case of Niger, Mali, Nigeria etc, when their TFR would eventually cross the 2.1 limit of demographic transition according to the standard model nearly half the global population would live there at the end of this century. It is insane and completely unsustainable even when not taking climate change and ressources depletion into account
- ed_balls 5y ago
  That's why it's never gonna happen, they don't have resources to support this population growth.
  - aeternum 5y ago
    Which resources specifically? We are now exceedingly good at growing food, and water is just an energy problem (can use desalination or purification). Solar alone might be sufficient given the cost and efficiency curves.
    - ed_balls 5y ago
      We are, but not Niger.