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I'm wondering about the transition dynamics, and the likelihood of a step-change. Initially, petrol stations will see declining sales but still be profitable.
by toss1 5y ago
I'm wondering about the transition dynamics, and the likelihood of a step-change.
Initially, petrol stations will see declining sales but still be profitable. But at some point, there will be few enough miles being driven in petrol-powerd cars that it will be come unprofitable. They will either need to find a new way of making money or close.
This will rapidly turn the tables and range anxiety will become a feature of petrol cars - where on the trip can I find a filling station? There might be a period of substantially increased petrol prices to keep the stations afloat. This will result in petrol-powered automobiles becoming stranded assets.
While this ideally happens slowly enough that most vehicles are used for their full useful lives, it seems more likely that this will be more of a step-change transition — and a lot of people will be left with big expensive lawn ornaments when the music stops.
The other big question is when this will occur. The Norwegians are likely very well off in this regard, as I presume that they can still sell their petrol cars to other areas in the EU. But what about when these charts apply to entire markets like the EU or North America?
Any insights?