3 ms·
So is the weather forecast though. 10% chance of rain tomorrow means, yeah it could rain. Doesn't mean it isn't useful.
by rapind 5y ago
So is the weather forecast though. 10% chance of rain tomorrow means, yeah it could rain. Doesn't mean it isn't useful.
- pid-1 5y agoYou can check rain forecast results thousands of times and estimate how often they are correct. Assigning probabilities to events that happen infrequently (US pres. Elections, wars, end of the world...) is bullshit IMO.
- ekianjo 5y agoIt's on the aggregate of predictions that you can see the accuracy. If my weather app tells me hundred times there is 10% change of rain but it rains 50% of the time after 100 days, it's completely useless. Same for FiveThirtyEight. They have been massively wrong on multiple counts.