2 ms·
That is a good point, but I wonder how significant the effect really is. If you look at charts of oil prices for the last 20 years [1] vs US oil consumption t
by danans 5y ago
That is a good point, but I wonder how significant the effect really is. If you look at charts of oil prices for the last 20 years [1] vs US oil consumption the last 20 years [2], the only significant drops in either appear to be due to a) the 2008 financial crisis, and b) the COVID19 pandemic.
Therefore, it seems like demand for oil has been fairly inelastic to oil price, but instead is tied to the underlying rate of economic activity - AKA people drive less when they don't have jobs.
Now of course that was also because there was no significant alternative to oil as a transportation fuel. Today we have an alternative, so perhaps the volatility will manifest in a shift away from petroleum investment. Even on the consumption side, nearly everywhere in the US electricity is multiples less than the price of gasoline per vehicle mile driven, so it's a bit of an obvious change of fuel on an economic basis alone.
1. https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha...
2. https://www.statista.com/statistics/264825/oil-consumption-in-the-united-states/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/264825/oil-consumption-i...