I am not being nihilistic, I am being realistic. We really can't predict the actions of superintelligence, full stop. Here's what I mean. What makes the lights

I am not being nihilistic, I am being realistic. We really can't predict the actions of superintelligence, full stop. Here's what I mean. What makes the lights on your router blink? Usually, it's packets going in and out. At a coarse level, if your computer is doing something on the internet, the lights are gonna be blinking. But now increase the resolution, from seconds, to milliseconds, to microseconds, to nanoseconds. At a nanosecond level, whether the LED is on or off depends on whether a packet is going over the wire right this nanosecond. Whether a packet is earlier or later by a nanosecond is influenced by a bazillion variables: the router's internal state, its own operating system's scheduling, whether the devices connected to it are sending packets at it, dragging in their state, their scheduling, their programs, packet queues, etc. Gigabytes of state, changing nano-second to nano-second. Oh, and it's connected to the internet. When does the internet decide to send a packet to this router? If those are faster or slower by a nanosecond, it could be due the state along the entire path, all of which are servicing packets from all over the place, decided upon by super-complex distributed systems--datacenters full of them. So even the blinking of a router LED is connected to a supremely complex causality tangle. To understand the blinking nano-second to nano-second, you basically have to replicate the details of the entire internet. So, if I were to ask you instead to predict what will happen tomorrow at 3:33am--will your router be blinking, let's say, fast or slow? Who knows. A DDoS might crop up because someone was mad at Amazon, or maybe your OS downloads a software update, or maybe you are up watching Netflix, or maybe the whole thing is down because nuclear war. It's progressed so far from a simple bell curve that probabilistic reasoning, I would argue, is useless. And that's just without the internet being "intelligent"! Now assume the internet knows this prediction game is afoot, and it gets to bet too. The whole thing goes off the rails. No, we can't predict what aliens will do. This paper is a mathematical exercise that might apply to bacteria or video game characters, not interstellar civilizations.