> Honestly people need to step back and ask if they're out-performing the market, and if so what risks they're taking to do so. There is a further problem abou

> Honestly people need to step back and ask if they're out-performing the market, and if so what risks they're taking to do so. There is a further problem about this even if you are out-performing (for now): the feedback loop delay on if you are (or not) can be a long-time, especially if this is for long-term projects (e.g., retirement). Nick Maggiulli: > But, what about stock picking? How long would it take to determine if someone is a good stock picker? > An hour? A week? A year? > Try multiple years, and even then you still may not know for sure. The issue is that causality is harder to determine with stock picking than with other domains. When you shoot a basketball or write a computer program, the result comes immediately after the action. The ball goes in the hoop or it doesn’t. The program runs correctly or it doesn’t. But, with stock picking, you make a decision now and have to wait for it to pay off. The feedback loop can take years. > And the payoff you do eventually get has to be compared to the payoff of buying an index fund like the S&P 500. So, even if you make money on absolute terms, you can still lose money on relative terms. * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-you-shouldnt-pick-individual-stocks/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-you-shouldnt-pick-individua...