This is not a trolley problem. The trolley problem has two assured outcomes - both leading to harm - and requires active intervention to choose the lower harm.

This is not a trolley problem. The trolley problem has two assured outcomes - both leading to harm - and requires active intervention to choose the lower harm. This has definitive harm for a potential gain against future potential harm, versus stopping an active harm at no direct real cost. It's a bird in hand versus two in the bush. You can't use people in wagers like that.