You've certainly identified some of the issues with the video tag for replacing Flash for video. But the thing that may keep Flash kicking for years to come ma

You've certainly identified some of the issues with the video tag for replacing Flash for video. But the thing that may keep Flash kicking for years to come may actually be advertising. It's a pretty small matter for Google to reencode their youtube library as WebM (which they are doing) compared to getting all web advertising firms to switch from Flash (for which they know well and have well established tools and workflows) to HTML/HTML5 based advertising.