7 ms·

SEC Doesn’t See Cryptocurrencies Lasting Long

31 points by Hedgemaster 5y ago

lifeplusplus 5y ago
Because it's only Good for gambling
- tryptophan 5y ago
  Eh, I don't think this is the best take. I'd say they are bad because they just don't work right now. Scaling is a huge issue. Yeah yeah there are 100 theoretical ways to scale to 100000 tx/s with low fees, but until I see it, I will maintain that crypto is useless.
- sleepybrett 5y ago
  That's unfair, it's also a good medium to extract ransoms with!
imagetic 5y ago
Sounds extremely short sighted on so many levels.
anon9001 5y ago
> “I don’t think there’s long-term viability for five or six thousand private forms of money,” Mr. Gensler said in a virtual event hosted by the Washington Post. That's going to age like milk.
- verdverm 5y ago
  As a consumer, how many currencies do I want to deal with? How many consumers will be willing to do currency conversions on a per transaction basis?
  - soultrees 5y ago
    As a consumer you will (are?) likely only involved in a few economic Microsystems. If you break it down, you probably spend a lot of your money through the same companies as it is, so it’s not a far fetch to think that each of these companies will use a main coin or have their own coin in the long run. This is only going to amplify as more of our payment systems are consolidated under big monolith corporations. So while you may be involved in some economic Microsystems, I will be involved in others. Each having their own currency needs and only having to go in an out of some main coin. For example take Apple - you have the App Store , iTunes, app purchases, Apple Pay, the new Apple Card and more I probably forgetting. As time goes on, it’s not far fetched to assume that you might rarely leave the Apple economic ecosystem or even need to since everything you have is provided by one corporation. This applies to Amazon, Facebook (not as embedded as Amazon or Apple but has ambitions to get there), and more. So the idea of there being an Amazon coin or an Apple coin, once things mature in the cryptocurrency industry, is not totally out to lunch.
    - verdverm 5y ago
      The main issue is that people think in terms of USD. The prices on the page would still be USD. Every currency is talked about in terms of it's price in USD. Why have the extra coins and conversions, as a consumer? Even if the companies want to use them like DerpCoin (see Hermitcraft), they will still have to take USD. So will they really ever gain sufficient usage to warrant the company time / people investment into supporting them? I also suspect most people are involved in many more economic microsystems, which sounds like a business I transact with by another name.
  - Sargos 5y ago
    There are hundreds of "official" currencies in the world today, is dealing with them a problem you deal with in your life? I assume many people here travel (or did pre-covid) frequently and mostly don't even notice the currency that's being used when you swipe your credit card when making a purchase. The details such as whether the merchant gets USD, EUR, or GBP are abstracted away from you and all you care about is buying your souvenir and figuring out where to go next.
    - verdverm 5y ago
      Well, 99%+ of my transactions are in USD When abroad, prices are listed in the local currency, and I have to do some mental math, but yes the transaction does currency conversion automatically, with a fee that is typically higher than I would have realized if I swapped beforehand. The point is, what currency will prices be listed in and do I have to jump through these mental hoops everywhere I buy things? Unlikely that most consumers will want this situation and extra layer. If it's listed in USD, why not just pay in USD and avoid the conversion stuff all together? That is why a plethora of currencies will not pan out. It's not a out technology, it's about people's minds and behaviors.
      - Sargos 5y ago
        Well worst case nothing changes and the prices are still listed in the same currencies they are today. But if crypto is even a little bit successful then perhaps the number of currencies used to display prices will reduce to a smaller number and make things simpler. For the buyer they can use any currency they want transparently and for displaying prices things can only get better.
        verdverm 5y ago
        > Well worst case nothing changes and the prices are still listed in the same currencies they are today. I would call this best case. There would need to be significant (likely unattainable) effort to change the standard. How many laws, signs, and code would need to be changed?
- mekster 5y ago
  Isn't the title another click bait? He said he doesn't see viability for 5000 cryptocurrencies and not cryptocurrency in general. Of course no one thinks every dust coins have a future.
- megameter 5y ago
  It really does sound like the analogous statement about "only five or six computers in the world" from the 1950's.
bconnorwhite 5y ago
"...banks issued their own currencies, which they sometimes refused to redeem for their purported value in gold or silver." Fortunately the government stepped in with its own currency to refuse to redeem for gold
heyitsguay 5y ago
I understand the appeal and benefits of decentralized services, and how they could apply to currency, but I think there's something wrong with the idea that a successful currency should increase in value by orders of magnitude (or even at all). Like, E-mail is a very successful decentralized service, and people make money in relation to e-mail protocol specifications by providing value on top of it. Nobody got rich just for getting their gmail account early. I know there is a lot of experimentation being done in stablecoins, but it seems like speculative quests for the next 1000x return drive development instead of just trying to solve the problem of safely, quickly, and reliably digitally storing and exchanging value.
- thehappypm 5y ago
  I do think it’s counterproductive that it was even possible for people to use Bitcoin as an asset. I doubt that Satoshi foresaw Bitcoin billionaires. Currencies have historically worked that they’re stable (ish). And to become rich you have to acquire more units. Not hope your units grow in value. If you expect appreciation then your currency is deflationary which makes it unsuitable for a currency.
  - atatatat 5y ago
    So, the USD, which has been inflated every time they expanded the empire over the last XXX years, but their citizenship/working class feels it's deflationary, so they keep chasing it as fast as they possibly can...?
    - thehappypm 5y ago
      What?
      - atatatat 5y ago
        You're claiming inflationary currencies have never been suitable. Nonsense. Until recently, we've seen the currencies of large empires like Britain and US do nothing but inflate, yet their currency and their economies function just fine.
axiosgunnar 5y ago
Famous last words
rvz 5y ago
Some cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects come and go. Let’s wait 8 years then.
Havoc 5y ago
The finance equivalent of our system is unhackable. Might take a couple of years but this will age like milk
huitzitziltzin 5y ago
Obviously they could be wrong, but this prediction feels very reasonable to me. I am extremely skeptical of cryptocurrencies in general, so you may take all of my claims with a grain of salt, but coinmarketcap.com tracks something like 6800 different cryptocurrencies. I very much doubt all but a tiny, tiny fraction of them have any use case at all. After more than ten years, I still don't see a use case for Bitcoin (perhaps El Salvador will surprise me, but I doubt it!). There is nothing I'm aware of that I need to do financially which I can do with Bitcoin (or the like) which I'm not better able to do with the regular banking system. (I don't have much need for contracts in my life, smart or otherwise, but I would vastly prefer to deal with a real lawyer and the actual legal system, expense included, than rely on a smart contract.) It could be that that amazing use for cryptocurrencies is right around the corner, but after a decade I don't expect to ever see one. Certainly it's not NFTs!
- achenatx 5y ago
  you dont live in a failing economy or one where the govt intervention prevents the free flow of money. 1)chinese were able to smuggle money out of china 2)venezuelans are using it in lieu of their failed currency 3) criminals are using it to launder money and buy/sell illegal products 4) people are using it to send money across national borders without paying fees/tariffs (e.g. to mexico) I remember not that long ago when the money supply was about 6T. Now with 30T in debt that automatically becomes the defacto money supply. Crypto can act as a stable store of value because all fiat is inflationary, though it is incredibly volatile now.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - thehappypm 5y ago
    These are four reasons why the governments of the world would want to ban crypto.
- chromatin 5y ago
  > There is nothing I'm aware of that I need to do financially which I can do with Bitcoin (or the like) which I'm not better able to do with the regular banking system. I would suggest that your life experience may not be the best yardstick for every other human. I will provide an example of a recent situation in which I would have loved to be able to use e.g. Bitcoin. I (US based] did some consulting work for a company in France and they owed me something like $6k. Arranging an incoming international bank wire was a huge pain (if you don’t do this regularly, you’ll have to navigate multiple layers at your bank to find someone who can provide the actual wire details to provide to the counterparty), it took many days to finalize, AND I was charged $25 by my bank for the privilege. In contrast, I should have been able to provide the French company a BTC address, have had them transmit for pennies or a few dollars at most, and have payment secured and confirmed within the hour.
zewp 5y ago
Then ignore them? The beauty of voluntary systems is that they can thrive or fail and the only people impacted are those that choose to use them. The SEC picks and chooses which rules to enforce and which parties to police, monetary policy is decided by authorities with no input from or regard for 99.9% of the population. It's not surprising that people would opt-in to building alternatives with transparent and programmatic rules. It's also not surprising that these alternative systems will be fiercely fought after being ignored and laughed at, and it won't be surprising when they win.
MengerSponge 5y ago
Yeah, they're probably right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Great_Filter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Great_Filter
ruchin_k 5y ago
Famous last words!

31 points by Hedgemaster 5y ago

lifeplusplus 5y ago

Because it's only Good for gambling

tryptophan 5y ago
Eh, I don't think this is the best take. I'd say they are bad because they just don't work right now. Scaling is a huge issue. Yeah yeah there are 100 theoretical ways to scale to 100000 tx/s with low fees, but until I see it, I will maintain that crypto is useless.
sleepybrett 5y ago
That's unfair, it's also a good medium to extract ransoms with!

imagetic 5y ago

Sounds extremely short sighted on so many levels.

anon9001 5y ago

> “I don’t think there’s long-term viability for five or six thousand private forms of money,” Mr. Gensler said in a virtual event hosted by the Washington Post. That's going to age like milk.

verdverm 5y ago
As a consumer, how many currencies do I want to deal with? How many consumers will be willing to do currency conversions on a per transaction basis?
- soultrees 5y ago
  As a consumer you will (are?) likely only involved in a few economic Microsystems. If you break it down, you probably spend a lot of your money through the same companies as it is, so it’s not a far fetch to think that each of these companies will use a main coin or have their own coin in the long run. This is only going to amplify as more of our payment systems are consolidated under big monolith corporations. So while you may be involved in some economic Microsystems, I will be involved in others. Each having their own currency needs and only having to go in an out of some main coin. For example take Apple - you have the App Store , iTunes, app purchases, Apple Pay, the new Apple Card and more I probably forgetting. As time goes on, it’s not far fetched to assume that you might rarely leave the Apple economic ecosystem or even need to since everything you have is provided by one corporation. This applies to Amazon, Facebook (not as embedded as Amazon or Apple but has ambitions to get there), and more. So the idea of there being an Amazon coin or an Apple coin, once things mature in the cryptocurrency industry, is not totally out to lunch.
  - verdverm 5y ago
    The main issue is that people think in terms of USD. The prices on the page would still be USD. Every currency is talked about in terms of it's price in USD. Why have the extra coins and conversions, as a consumer? Even if the companies want to use them like DerpCoin (see Hermitcraft), they will still have to take USD. So will they really ever gain sufficient usage to warrant the company time / people investment into supporting them? I also suspect most people are involved in many more economic microsystems, which sounds like a business I transact with by another name.
- Sargos 5y ago
  There are hundreds of "official" currencies in the world today, is dealing with them a problem you deal with in your life? I assume many people here travel (or did pre-covid) frequently and mostly don't even notice the currency that's being used when you swipe your credit card when making a purchase. The details such as whether the merchant gets USD, EUR, or GBP are abstracted away from you and all you care about is buying your souvenir and figuring out where to go next.
  - verdverm 5y ago
    Well, 99%+ of my transactions are in USD When abroad, prices are listed in the local currency, and I have to do some mental math, but yes the transaction does currency conversion automatically, with a fee that is typically higher than I would have realized if I swapped beforehand. The point is, what currency will prices be listed in and do I have to jump through these mental hoops everywhere I buy things? Unlikely that most consumers will want this situation and extra layer. If it's listed in USD, why not just pay in USD and avoid the conversion stuff all together? That is why a plethora of currencies will not pan out. It's not a out technology, it's about people's minds and behaviors.
    - Sargos 5y ago
      Well worst case nothing changes and the prices are still listed in the same currencies they are today. But if crypto is even a little bit successful then perhaps the number of currencies used to display prices will reduce to a smaller number and make things simpler. For the buyer they can use any currency they want transparently and for displaying prices things can only get better.
      - verdverm 5y ago
        > Well worst case nothing changes and the prices are still listed in the same currencies they are today. I would call this best case. There would need to be significant (likely unattainable) effort to change the standard. How many laws, signs, and code would need to be changed?
mekster 5y ago
Isn't the title another click bait? He said he doesn't see viability for 5000 cryptocurrencies and not cryptocurrency in general. Of course no one thinks every dust coins have a future.
megameter 5y ago
It really does sound like the analogous statement about "only five or six computers in the world" from the 1950's.

bconnorwhite 5y ago

"...banks issued their own currencies, which they sometimes refused to redeem for their purported value in gold or silver." Fortunately the government stepped in with its own currency to refuse to redeem for gold

heyitsguay 5y ago

I understand the appeal and benefits of decentralized services, and how they could apply to currency, but I think there's something wrong with the idea that a successful currency should increase in value by orders of magnitude (or even at all). Like, E-mail is a very successful decentralized service, and people make money in relation to e-mail protocol specifications by providing value on top of it. Nobody got rich just for getting their gmail account early. I know there is a lot of experimentation being done in stablecoins, but it seems like speculative quests for the next 1000x return drive development instead of just trying to solve the problem of safely, quickly, and reliably digitally storing and exchanging value.

thehappypm 5y ago
I do think it’s counterproductive that it was even possible for people to use Bitcoin as an asset. I doubt that Satoshi foresaw Bitcoin billionaires. Currencies have historically worked that they’re stable (ish). And to become rich you have to acquire more units. Not hope your units grow in value. If you expect appreciation then your currency is deflationary which makes it unsuitable for a currency.
- atatatat 5y ago
  So, the USD, which has been inflated every time they expanded the empire over the last XXX years, but their citizenship/working class feels it's deflationary, so they keep chasing it as fast as they possibly can...?
  - thehappypm 5y ago
    What?
    - atatatat 5y ago
      You're claiming inflationary currencies have never been suitable. Nonsense. Until recently, we've seen the currencies of large empires like Britain and US do nothing but inflate, yet their currency and their economies function just fine.

axiosgunnar 5y ago

Famous last words

rvz 5y ago

Some cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects come and go. Let’s wait 8 years then.

Havoc 5y ago

The finance equivalent of our system is unhackable. Might take a couple of years but this will age like milk

huitzitziltzin 5y ago

Obviously they could be wrong, but this prediction feels very reasonable to me. I am extremely skeptical of cryptocurrencies in general, so you may take all of my claims with a grain of salt, but coinmarketcap.com tracks something like 6800 different cryptocurrencies. I very much doubt all but a tiny, tiny fraction of them have any use case at all. After more than ten years, I still don't see a use case for Bitcoin (perhaps El Salvador will surprise me, but I doubt it!). There is nothing I'm aware of that I need to do financially which I can do with Bitcoin (or the like) which I'm not better able to do with the regular banking system. (I don't have much need for contracts in my life, smart or otherwise, but I would vastly prefer to deal with a real lawyer and the actual legal system, expense included, than rely on a smart contract.) It could be that that amazing use for cryptocurrencies is right around the corner, but after a decade I don't expect to ever see one. Certainly it's not NFTs!

achenatx 5y ago
you dont live in a failing economy or one where the govt intervention prevents the free flow of money. 1)chinese were able to smuggle money out of china 2)venezuelans are using it in lieu of their failed currency 3) criminals are using it to launder money and buy/sell illegal products 4) people are using it to send money across national borders without paying fees/tariffs (e.g. to mexico) I remember not that long ago when the money supply was about 6T. Now with 30T in debt that automatically becomes the defacto money supply. Crypto can act as a stable store of value because all fiat is inflationary, though it is incredibly volatile now.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- thehappypm 5y ago
  These are four reasons why the governments of the world would want to ban crypto.
chromatin 5y ago
> There is nothing I'm aware of that I need to do financially which I can do with Bitcoin (or the like) which I'm not better able to do with the regular banking system. I would suggest that your life experience may not be the best yardstick for every other human. I will provide an example of a recent situation in which I would have loved to be able to use e.g. Bitcoin. I (US based] did some consulting work for a company in France and they owed me something like $6k. Arranging an incoming international bank wire was a huge pain (if you don’t do this regularly, you’ll have to navigate multiple layers at your bank to find someone who can provide the actual wire details to provide to the counterparty), it took many days to finalize, AND I was charged $25 by my bank for the privilege. In contrast, I should have been able to provide the French company a BTC address, have had them transmit for pennies or a few dollars at most, and have payment secured and confirmed within the hour.

zewp 5y ago

Then ignore them? The beauty of voluntary systems is that they can thrive or fail and the only people impacted are those that choose to use them. The SEC picks and chooses which rules to enforce and which parties to police, monetary policy is decided by authorities with no input from or regard for 99.9% of the population. It's not surprising that people would opt-in to building alternatives with transparent and programmatic rules. It's also not surprising that these alternative systems will be fiercely fought after being ignored and laughed at, and it won't be surprising when they win.

MengerSponge 5y ago

Yeah, they're probably right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Great_Filter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Great_Filter

ruchin_k 5y ago

Famous last words!