3 ms·

Doesn't the majority of LinkedIn's revenue come from recruiters? It makes sense that LinkedIn, Zillow, and Pandora are off more than the market as recruiting,

Doesn't the majority of LinkedIn's revenue come from recruiters? It makes sense that LinkedIn, Zillow, and Pandora are off more than the market as recruiting, ads, and real estate tend to get hit harder than the broader economy. Groupon was born during the recession, so may fare better than others. Deep discounting and coupons are counter-cyclical.

jonnathanson 15y ago
"Deep discounting and coupons are counter-cyclical" Not if they're mostly (or even significantly) in discretionary categories and experiences, though. You could offer me 90% off a tennis lesson, or 99% off a trial run of Invisalign braces, but if I'm struggling to make ends meet on the basics, such offers are of little use to me. In fairness, I have no idea what percentage of Groupon's offers are discretionary. (Though, anecdotally, it sure seems like a big number). But my point is that I wouldn't put it past many analysts to assume that it's a significant percentage. And that's all you need to move the price of the stock.
- jcampbell1 15y ago
  I don't think the term "discretionary", captures what happens during a recession in the first world. I mean, when unemployment goes from 6% to 9%, 3% of the population stops going out for dinner, and 70% of the population cuts back on spending based on fear. That 70% of the population starts cutting coupons and buying generic products, and shops at Walmart instead of Whole Foods. Fashion industries get hit hard, but entertainment generally doesn't. I really think the "deals" or "coupon" space is counter-cyclical no matter whether the coupons are for skydiving or pickles. I personally don't have a gut instinct for this space, as I am not a customer of Groupon, but I am interested in the question "If you neighbor lost his job, would you buy more or less Groupons?".

3 ms·

Doesn't the majority of LinkedIn's revenue come from recruiters? It makes sense that LinkedIn, Zillow, and Pandora are off more than the market as recruiting,

by jcampbell1 15y ago

jonnathanson 15y ago
"Deep discounting and coupons are counter-cyclical" Not if they're mostly (or even significantly) in discretionary categories and experiences, though. You could offer me 90% off a tennis lesson, or 99% off a trial run of Invisalign braces, but if I'm struggling to make ends meet on the basics, such offers are of little use to me. In fairness, I have no idea what percentage of Groupon's offers are discretionary. (Though, anecdotally, it sure seems like a big number). But my point is that I wouldn't put it past many analysts to assume that it's a significant percentage. And that's all you need to move the price of the stock.
- jcampbell1 15y ago
  I don't think the term "discretionary", captures what happens during a recession in the first world. I mean, when unemployment goes from 6% to 9%, 3% of the population stops going out for dinner, and 70% of the population cuts back on spending based on fear. That 70% of the population starts cutting coupons and buying generic products, and shops at Walmart instead of Whole Foods. Fashion industries get hit hard, but entertainment generally doesn't. I really think the "deals" or "coupon" space is counter-cyclical no matter whether the coupons are for skydiving or pickles. I personally don't have a gut instinct for this space, as I am not a customer of Groupon, but I am interested in the question "If you neighbor lost his job, would you buy more or less Groupons?".