4 ms·

Some situations are fully-qualifiable IMO. For instance, on those 80mph highway sweeping curves, my car is nailing the centerline better than i possibly ever co

by elif 5y ago

Some situations are fully-qualifiable IMO. For instance, on those 80mph highway sweeping curves, my car is nailing the centerline better than i possibly ever could. As a result i'm glancing at the cars around me, both visually and using the 3D model, rather than focusing on where my tires go.

romwell 5y ago
Yeah, and nailing the curves does not equal more attention. Knowing where the tires are going is also important, like in that case where a Tesla accelerated into a highway divider.
- Enginerrrd 5y ago
  Yeah there's a reason that forward attention is the default. Spreading attention to lower probability and lower gravity issues may not be optimal, even if it feels better. I'd guess it's riskier than maintaining attention in the direction of momentum. But it depends on the statistics of autopilot failure.
  - elif 5y ago
    That's like saying "There's a reason bash scripting is the default." when first confronting high level languages. Yup. Legacy. Humans are legacy equipment, required up until very recently. Constant forward-looking may seem beneficial since most things come at you from the front. You might think they are the most important class of problems because you're forced to focus on them constantly. However, when you're on the 9's tail of problems you encounter on the road, very few of them are things approaching you from the front. Many of them are unexpected things on your sides, rears, and blind spot. The implication of alot of these comments that assisted drivers HAVE to pay full attention to all minutae of driving just as if they were driving is really debased from the reality of self-driving i experience. In terms of statistics right now AP is 4x safer than average human per mile travelled.
    - romwell 5y ago
      >However, when you're on the 9's tail of problems you encounter on the road, very few of them are things approaching you from the front. >very few of them are things approaching you from the front. Yeah, most of them are stationary, like that highway divider that Tesla's autopilot crashed into, killing the driver. Most things are approaching you from the front in driver's frame of reference. And the autopilot still sucks at detecting them.
      - elif 5y ago
        since you're so invested in that particular crash i looked into it. The driver was doing 68 in a 55 around a corner while playing "Three Kingdoms" on his phone and crashed 10 seconds after engaging autopilot (not FSD). Using that as your basis of reasoning about AP safety is self-delusion. Watch some FSD beta 10 videos. Irresponsible driving is irresponsible driving.
    - romwell 5y ago
      >In terms of statistics right now AP is 4x safer than average human per mile travelled. Because the profile of the average autopilot useris: poor, overworked, young, inexperienced driver, driving a 10 year old Honda civic without any active safety features? Yeah, that's a fair comparison. Also, citation needed.
      - elif 5y ago
        that was musk's number from AI day.
    - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
      "In terms of statistics right now AP is 4x safer than average human per mile travelled." My father has driven through a switchback mountain path without markings, during hailstorm, and wasn't always sober. On a car that has hasn't seen a mechanic in years. Autopilot doesn't even work in those conditions, it gets all it's miles on a straight highway in good weather. You play the game on easy mode, you get a better score.
- elif 5y ago
  words are a terrible tool for communicating expanded awareness. I can only try to do my best. Attempting to characterize the system through describing its exceptions is not really accurate.
  - romwell 5y ago
    The exceptions being "the system FUCKING KILLS you", it must be noted.
    - elif 5y ago
      the system FUCKING KILLS you less than humans.
- Retric 5y ago
  And a huge number of people have done the same thing and completely ignored their surroundings while using AP. The question isn’t if people reading a book are capable of using auto pilot safely, the question is if people can supervise level 3 self driving systems or if they need to evaluated assuming generally inattentive drivers. Counterintuitively, the less people have been paying attention when AP is engaged the closer it is to being a level 4 system. Aka if people are catching 90% of potentially fatal mistakes then in level 4 it would be 10x as deadly. Alternatively, if their catching 10% of potentially fatal mistakes it would be almost as safe as a level 4 system.
  - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
    "the question is if people can supervise level 3 self driving systems or if they need to evaluated assuming generally inattentive drivers." Finally someone in the thread points out that we are pretending that the agreement "you are responsible for intervening at a moments' notice to avoid a crash" is anything but a cover-your-ass legal fiction. This is like allowing an airline to pass off responsibility for engine failure to it's customer. It should not be legally valid unless we can prove that this method actually works. It's not just the driver's life at stake, it's also pedestrians and other people around them that did not get a 'choice'
- reissbaker 5y ago
  If you want data on whether Autopilot is harmful or helpful, you could take a look at crash statistics for highway Autopilot-on miles vs highway miles of average vehicles. The Autopilot-on miles are much better than the American national average. Visual behavior pattern changes are a microbenchmark that may not even be measuring attention at all. Regardless, the pattern changes don't seem to increase crash risk as compared to not using Autopilot in any study that I'm aware of. If there is data supporting a claim that Autopilot actually increases crashes, I would be curious to see it. "A Tesla crashed on Autopilot once" is just an anecdote; humans crash cars constantly, and the question is whether Autopilot results in greater or fewer crashes.
  - romwell 5y ago
    >If you want data on whether Autopilot is harmful or helpful, you could take a look at crash statistics for highway Autopilot-on miles vs highway miles of average vehicles. The Autopilot-on miles are much better than the American national average. Source please. Also a comparison with autopilot-off miles in Teslas would be necessary here to control for Tesla owners not being representative of average driver in the US. Poor young overworked mininum wage job drivers aren't driving Teslas. Nor is Tesla with autopilot off comparable to 1999 Honda Civic in terms of safety. More food for thought https://www.herrmanandherrman.com/blog/what-does-new-data-reveal-about-link-between-income-levels-and-car-accidents/ https://www.herrmanandherrman.com/blog/what-does-new-data-re...
    - reissbaker 5y ago
      Tesla releases safety reports every quarter. In the most recent quarter, crash rate for Autopilot-on miles beat the national average by about 10x. Also a comparison with autopilot-off miles in Teslas would be necessary here to control for Tesla owners not being representative of average driver in the US. Luckily, they also release crash rates for Autopilot-off miles, as per your desire; Autopilot-on beats Autopilot-off by about 2x. Disabling all active safety features is of course even worse, losing to Autopilot by roughly 4x — although still beating the national average handily, since as you hypothesized, Tesla cars and drivers tend to not be similar to 1999 Honda cars and drivers. Quarter-by-quarter breakdowns: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

by elif 5y ago

romwell 5y ago

Yeah, and nailing the curves does not equal more attention. Knowing where the tires are going is also important, like in that case where a Tesla accelerated into a highway divider.

Enginerrrd 5y ago
Yeah there's a reason that forward attention is the default. Spreading attention to lower probability and lower gravity issues may not be optimal, even if it feels better. I'd guess it's riskier than maintaining attention in the direction of momentum. But it depends on the statistics of autopilot failure.
- elif 5y ago
  That's like saying "There's a reason bash scripting is the default." when first confronting high level languages. Yup. Legacy. Humans are legacy equipment, required up until very recently. Constant forward-looking may seem beneficial since most things come at you from the front. You might think they are the most important class of problems because you're forced to focus on them constantly. However, when you're on the 9's tail of problems you encounter on the road, very few of them are things approaching you from the front. Many of them are unexpected things on your sides, rears, and blind spot. The implication of alot of these comments that assisted drivers HAVE to pay full attention to all minutae of driving just as if they were driving is really debased from the reality of self-driving i experience. In terms of statistics right now AP is 4x safer than average human per mile travelled.
  - romwell 5y ago
    >However, when you're on the 9's tail of problems you encounter on the road, very few of them are things approaching you from the front. >very few of them are things approaching you from the front. Yeah, most of them are stationary, like that highway divider that Tesla's autopilot crashed into, killing the driver. Most things are approaching you from the front in driver's frame of reference. And the autopilot still sucks at detecting them.
    - elif 5y ago
      since you're so invested in that particular crash i looked into it. The driver was doing 68 in a 55 around a corner while playing "Three Kingdoms" on his phone and crashed 10 seconds after engaging autopilot (not FSD). Using that as your basis of reasoning about AP safety is self-delusion. Watch some FSD beta 10 videos. Irresponsible driving is irresponsible driving.
  - romwell 5y ago
    >In terms of statistics right now AP is 4x safer than average human per mile travelled. Because the profile of the average autopilot useris: poor, overworked, young, inexperienced driver, driving a 10 year old Honda civic without any active safety features? Yeah, that's a fair comparison. Also, citation needed.
    - elif 5y ago
      that was musk's number from AI day.
  - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
    "In terms of statistics right now AP is 4x safer than average human per mile travelled." My father has driven through a switchback mountain path without markings, during hailstorm, and wasn't always sober. On a car that has hasn't seen a mechanic in years. Autopilot doesn't even work in those conditions, it gets all it's miles on a straight highway in good weather. You play the game on easy mode, you get a better score.
elif 5y ago
words are a terrible tool for communicating expanded awareness. I can only try to do my best. Attempting to characterize the system through describing its exceptions is not really accurate.
- romwell 5y ago
  The exceptions being "the system FUCKING KILLS you", it must be noted.
  - elif 5y ago
    the system FUCKING KILLS you less than humans.
Retric 5y ago
And a huge number of people have done the same thing and completely ignored their surroundings while using AP. The question isn’t if people reading a book are capable of using auto pilot safely, the question is if people can supervise level 3 self driving systems or if they need to evaluated assuming generally inattentive drivers. Counterintuitively, the less people have been paying attention when AP is engaged the closer it is to being a level 4 system. Aka if people are catching 90% of potentially fatal mistakes then in level 4 it would be 10x as deadly. Alternatively, if their catching 10% of potentially fatal mistakes it would be almost as safe as a level 4 system.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  "the question is if people can supervise level 3 self driving systems or if they need to evaluated assuming generally inattentive drivers." Finally someone in the thread points out that we are pretending that the agreement "you are responsible for intervening at a moments' notice to avoid a crash" is anything but a cover-your-ass legal fiction. This is like allowing an airline to pass off responsibility for engine failure to it's customer. It should not be legally valid unless we can prove that this method actually works. It's not just the driver's life at stake, it's also pedestrians and other people around them that did not get a 'choice'
reissbaker 5y ago
If you want data on whether Autopilot is harmful or helpful, you could take a look at crash statistics for highway Autopilot-on miles vs highway miles of average vehicles. The Autopilot-on miles are much better than the American national average. Visual behavior pattern changes are a microbenchmark that may not even be measuring attention at all. Regardless, the pattern changes don't seem to increase crash risk as compared to not using Autopilot in any study that I'm aware of. If there is data supporting a claim that Autopilot actually increases crashes, I would be curious to see it. "A Tesla crashed on Autopilot once" is just an anecdote; humans crash cars constantly, and the question is whether Autopilot results in greater or fewer crashes.
- romwell 5y ago
  >If you want data on whether Autopilot is harmful or helpful, you could take a look at crash statistics for highway Autopilot-on miles vs highway miles of average vehicles. The Autopilot-on miles are much better than the American national average. Source please. Also a comparison with autopilot-off miles in Teslas would be necessary here to control for Tesla owners not being representative of average driver in the US. Poor young overworked mininum wage job drivers aren't driving Teslas. Nor is Tesla with autopilot off comparable to 1999 Honda Civic in terms of safety. More food for thought https://www.herrmanandherrman.com/blog/what-does-new-data-reveal-about-link-between-income-levels-and-car-accidents/ https://www.herrmanandherrman.com/blog/what-does-new-data-re...
  - reissbaker 5y ago
    Tesla releases safety reports every quarter. In the most recent quarter, crash rate for Autopilot-on miles beat the national average by about 10x. Also a comparison with autopilot-off miles in Teslas would be necessary here to control for Tesla owners not being representative of average driver in the US. Luckily, they also release crash rates for Autopilot-off miles, as per your desire; Autopilot-on beats Autopilot-off by about 2x. Disabling all active safety features is of course even worse, losing to Autopilot by roughly 4x — although still beating the national average handily, since as you hypothesized, Tesla cars and drivers tend to not be similar to 1999 Honda cars and drivers. Quarter-by-quarter breakdowns: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport