(I'm the author of the post - thanks to whoever posted this to HN!) This is a good point, if probability of success decreased 5x while average outcome increase

(I'm the author of the post - thanks to whoever posted this to HN!) This is a good point, if probability of success decreased 5x while average outcome increased 10x, then a 2x increase in seed valuations would be reasonable. I don't actually know the differences in probability of success / expected value for the typical seed stage startup, but anecdotally it doesn't feel less likely. It is definitely harder to get off the ground, but I see a lot fewer companies (anecdotally) stumbling in the "middle" part of the journey between $2M to $100M in ARR or so, whereas I feel like in the past a lot more hot SaaS companies used to stall out. So I think that washes out against the harder initial stages.