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Seems to me that there are two problems. As jobs and facilities are becoming more centralized. Cities are expanding and rural towns are shrinking. So even with

Seems to me that there are two problems. As jobs and facilities are becoming more centralized. Cities are expanding and rural towns are shrinking. So even without any population growth, houses that people actually want become more expensive. And the second problem is the expectation that a piece of land near a city will always be more in demand tomorrow than it is today. This is almost certainly true based on the first point and doubled by the fact that populations are still expanding. This expectation means you can buy a house for way more than you believe it is worth since you know it will be worth even more later. The only solution I can possibly see is moving more people from single family houses in to apartment buildings which allows virtually infinite supply within close range to jobs and facilities that people demand.

noahtallen 5y ago
The main problem with that solution is that most young-ish people know that if they ever want to own a house, they need to get into the game early so they can build equity. Besides that, rentals are often way too expensive (matching or exceeding a mortgage payment in big cities) without providing a similar amount of value: - Can’t do what you like to the interior, like painting walls. - Not built with the same sort of layout homes have. For examples, loads of three bed/three bath rentals meant to be split by roommates, but not many with a nice room for a home office. - Often does not provide an important amenity (like AC). - Almost definitely less space. - Likely less peaceful, especially if noise insulation between units is poor. (Getting bothered by a neighbor is a lot easier.) If we want to attract the type of people who want to buy a home to instead rent for the long term, those aspects need to become better. Apartments need to be more desirable than houses. And that means the folks building apartments and the apartment management companies need to offer a lot more for less. And since apartment buildings are also investments, that will never happen, because the ultimate goal is profit. I feel like in both cases, it comes back to the fact that property is an investment. It doesn’t make sense for anyone to loose value on an investment, which means there is an inherent pressure to make prices go up over time
qwerty456127 5y ago
> The only solution I can possibly see is moving more people from single family houses in to apartment buildings which allows virtually infinite supply within close range to jobs This is convenient in a lot of ways (e.g. apartment-first cities have better public transport and less segregation) but doesn't really solve this particular problem. The apartments still are very expensive and the prices grow rapidly. Again nobody except rich entrepreneurs can afford buying them without a mortgage and the rent still is everyone's single biggest expense. I even suspect even Hongkongers living in "cage homes" still spend the most of their income on these.
- SilverRed 5y ago
  Apartments are still expensive but they are affordable. The average person could realistically buy one while house/land prices are rising much faster than savings so if you aren't already able to buy, you become further and further behind. The HK problem seems to be that they are so overpopulated that even apartments have run out of space. Most of the world does not have this problem and will never have this problem because the enviornment would collapse before the population of Australia or the US fills apartments on every block of land available.
qwerty456127 5y ago
I would add government requirements to the list of problems. You can't just build a house the way you like/can and live there like you could in the past. Today you have to get the authorities approve every detail in your house construction design, hire licensed builders, use certified materials etc. This makes sense in cities but is required in rural areas too, all over the developed world. As a kid I spent some time in a number of houses built by their owners out of scrap and "hobby market" materials with just their hands, simple tools and no serious design and that was great.

noahtallen 5y ago

The main problem with that solution is that most young-ish people know that if they ever want to own a house, they need to get into the game early so they can build equity. Besides that, rentals are often way too expensive (matching or exceeding a mortgage payment in big cities) without providing a similar amount of value: - Can’t do what you like to the interior, like painting walls. - Not built with the same sort of layout homes have. For examples, loads of three bed/three bath rentals meant to be split by roommates, but not many with a nice room for a home office. - Often does not provide an important amenity (like AC). - Almost definitely less space. - Likely less peaceful, especially if noise insulation between units is poor. (Getting bothered by a neighbor is a lot easier.) If we want to attract the type of people who want to buy a home to instead rent for the long term, those aspects need to become better. Apartments need to be more desirable than houses. And that means the folks building apartments and the apartment management companies need to offer a lot more for less. And since apartment buildings are also investments, that will never happen, because the ultimate goal is profit. I feel like in both cases, it comes back to the fact that property is an investment. It doesn’t make sense for anyone to loose value on an investment, which means there is an inherent pressure to make prices go up over time

qwerty456127 5y ago

> The only solution I can possibly see is moving more people from single family houses in to apartment buildings which allows virtually infinite supply within close range to jobs This is convenient in a lot of ways (e.g. apartment-first cities have better public transport and less segregation) but doesn't really solve this particular problem. The apartments still are very expensive and the prices grow rapidly. Again nobody except rich entrepreneurs can afford buying them without a mortgage and the rent still is everyone's single biggest expense. I even suspect even Hongkongers living in "cage homes" still spend the most of their income on these.

SilverRed 5y ago
Apartments are still expensive but they are affordable. The average person could realistically buy one while house/land prices are rising much faster than savings so if you aren't already able to buy, you become further and further behind. The HK problem seems to be that they are so overpopulated that even apartments have run out of space. Most of the world does not have this problem and will never have this problem because the enviornment would collapse before the population of Australia or the US fills apartments on every block of land available.

qwerty456127 5y ago

I would add government requirements to the list of problems. You can't just build a house the way you like/can and live there like you could in the past. Today you have to get the authorities approve every detail in your house construction design, hire licensed builders, use certified materials etc. This makes sense in cities but is required in rural areas too, all over the developed world. As a kid I spent some time in a number of houses built by their owners out of scrap and "hobby market" materials with just their hands, simple tools and no serious design and that was great.