In the US, lending standards in 2005-2008 were openly silly and terrible. Lending standards today are much stricter, though not perfect. I'd bet on a horizonta

In the US, lending standards in 2005-2008 were openly silly and terrible. Lending standards today are much stricter, though not perfect. I'd bet on a horizontal. (<-- PERSONAL PREDICTION HERE) The government is in a bind now -- they cannot just allow a housing pop because that affects the middle and upper-middle class voter base. Ending ZIRP would also pop the equity bubble -- again bad for the wealthy and middle-class voter base. The best they can do is try to contain it. We've already seen the government too scared to reign in monetary policy in 2009-2021 even when things were good -- so thats a good indication of how scared they are to normalize things again. The best they can do is allow controlled inflation, as they are doing, and allowing real prices to stabalize on an inflation adjusted basis. Unfortunately, in all this, US fiscal and monetary policy has truly punished the young.