4 ms·

Are we close to another housing bubble like in 2008?

by marcodiego 5y ago

m_ke 5y ago
We're in an everything bubble that's about to pop. Evergrande is about to take it all down.
- TameAntelope 5y ago
  How long will you and your Reddit pals keep saying this before you realize how untrue it is? Last prediction I heard was that everything was going to crash today. Now it's next week. Next week will it be November? 2022? 2024? 2030? Over and over again, I see newly minted retail investors discover the only hard part about investing; actually knowing when things will happen. If you can't say when the MOASS (or whatever the "bad thing" is this time) will actually happen, it's useless to keep doomsaying about it in the meantime.
  - m_ke 5y ago
    I don't hold a single share of public stock nor crypto and have never posted on any investing forums. Evergrande could end up tanking the Chinese real estate market and a take bunch of banks down in the process unless the CCP steps in and nationalizes it.
    - TameAntelope 5y ago
      It could indeed do that highly unlikely and globally catastrophic thing, or it could be mitigated substantially by the amount of time and resources that "bunch of banks" have now that this has been going on for some weeks. Ever since Taleb wrote about "Black Swan events", it feels like people are falling over themselves to identify the next one at every opportunity, and when (through random chance) some group or person gets it right, it's going to be paraded about as some kind of indication of their sage wisdom.
- the__alchemist 5y ago
  Are you shorting any stocks / indexes?
TuringNYC 5y ago
In the US, lending standards in 2005-2008 were openly silly and terrible. Lending standards today are much stricter, though not perfect. I'd bet on a horizontal. (<-- PERSONAL PREDICTION HERE) The government is in a bind now -- they cannot just allow a housing pop because that affects the middle and upper-middle class voter base. Ending ZIRP would also pop the equity bubble -- again bad for the wealthy and middle-class voter base. The best they can do is try to contain it. We've already seen the government too scared to reign in monetary policy in 2009-2021 even when things were good -- so thats a good indication of how scared they are to normalize things again. The best they can do is allow controlled inflation, as they are doing, and allowing real prices to stabalize on an inflation adjusted basis. Unfortunately, in all this, US fiscal and monetary policy has truly punished the young.

Are we close to another housing bubble like in 2008?

m_ke 5y ago

We're in an everything bubble that's about to pop. Evergrande is about to take it all down.

TameAntelope 5y ago
How long will you and your Reddit pals keep saying this before you realize how untrue it is? Last prediction I heard was that everything was going to crash today. Now it's next week. Next week will it be November? 2022? 2024? 2030? Over and over again, I see newly minted retail investors discover the only hard part about investing; actually knowing when things will happen. If you can't say when the MOASS (or whatever the "bad thing" is this time) will actually happen, it's useless to keep doomsaying about it in the meantime.
- m_ke 5y ago
  I don't hold a single share of public stock nor crypto and have never posted on any investing forums. Evergrande could end up tanking the Chinese real estate market and a take bunch of banks down in the process unless the CCP steps in and nationalizes it.
  - TameAntelope 5y ago
    It could indeed do that highly unlikely and globally catastrophic thing, or it could be mitigated substantially by the amount of time and resources that "bunch of banks" have now that this has been going on for some weeks. Ever since Taleb wrote about "Black Swan events", it feels like people are falling over themselves to identify the next one at every opportunity, and when (through random chance) some group or person gets it right, it's going to be paraded about as some kind of indication of their sage wisdom.
the__alchemist 5y ago
Are you shorting any stocks / indexes?

TuringNYC 5y ago

In the US, lending standards in 2005-2008 were openly silly and terrible. Lending standards today are much stricter, though not perfect. I'd bet on a horizontal. (<-- PERSONAL PREDICTION HERE) The government is in a bind now -- they cannot just allow a housing pop because that affects the middle and upper-middle class voter base. Ending ZIRP would also pop the equity bubble -- again bad for the wealthy and middle-class voter base. The best they can do is try to contain it. We've already seen the government too scared to reign in monetary policy in 2009-2021 even when things were good -- so thats a good indication of how scared they are to normalize things again. The best they can do is allow controlled inflation, as they are doing, and allowing real prices to stabalize on an inflation adjusted basis. Unfortunately, in all this, US fiscal and monetary policy has truly punished the young.