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Why not focus instead on countries that did get this under control then? Some of them are even western.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
You mean island countries? South Korea is essentially an Island, since it has been completely shut off from NK for decades.
- wbl 5y ago
  There is an entire ocean between the US and China.
- varelse 5y ago
  If instead of studying the winners you obsess on justifying why you are a loser then it seems unlikely you will find success in tech or any other endeavor. Are they now offering a degree in excuses and rationalizations?
thedrbrian 5y ago
Because it's going to be very hard to move France or Germany into the Pacific. Hell just moving them a few hundred miles into the Atlantic will be difficult .
taeric 5y ago
Are there good patterns here? Last I looked, it seemed more that there were nations that just hadn't been hit, yet. Especially as more of the heavy hit nations get it under control with vaccines, unless full isolation is the plan for the other nations, I'm not seeing an end game.
- varelse 5y ago
  Pattern #1: Don't politicize the pandemic. Pattern #2: Enforce mask mandates Pattern #3: terminate public officials who won't enforce immediately I'd say something about vaccines as well but I don't want to trigger the engineer epidemiologist demographic they are very fragile. But, you know, Israel (not an island nation even).
  - taeric 5y ago
    While I agree with those points, my understanding is that the evidence is actually rather thin right now. About the only pattern that has consistently played out, is nations getting cocky and then getting smashed. And this doesn't address the end game. Vaccines are about the only route that makes sense. The rest seems to be akin to thinking condoms alone could solve STDs. They definitely help. They aren't getting is to the end, though.
    - varelse 5y ago
      Condoms bought time to come up with a treatment for HIV in the same way that masks bought time for us to arrive at vaccines, no?
      - taeric 5y ago
        I mean... Maybe? I don't think I ever saw evidence that they moved that needle. And to your previous point, a ton of damage came from politicizing the issue.
        varelse 5y ago
        https://www.aidsmap.com/about-hiv/do-condoms-work https://www.aidsmap.com/about-hiv/do-condoms-work
        taeric 5y ago
        I'm not sure what you are getting at with posting that. Of course condoms work when used properly. Problem is that there is a high rate of not getting used properly, such that I'm not clear on how effective that is as a policy. The very first key takeaway is "Laboratory testing shows that condoms are impermeable to viruses, but protection rates are lower in real-world studies." Seeming to support my "maybe?" That is, I did not intend my "maybe" to cover the question of if condoms can do what they are designed to do. I meant that I wasn't aware of any studies showing how effective they are as a policy. And again, to your point, there are plenty of places where these are taken off the table as a policy, out of some misguided sense of propriety for the population. Please do not take my point as one that is against the use.
8note 5y ago
From a practical standpoint, different countries are really different both in culture and infrastructure. What worked in China was welding people into their houses, but that's not going to work of most people don't have metal doors
- varelse 5y ago
  I'm long past the point of believing anti-vaxxers who insist on loudly cosplaying this like it's the Holocaust should be welded into their homes if only because it's a lot cheaper than building camps for them to really enhance that cosplay they themselves opted into. And you don't even have to actually weld them in there all you need to do is put ankle monitors on them.

You mean island countries? South Korea is essentially an Island, since it has been completely shut off from NK for decades.

wbl 5y ago
There is an entire ocean between the US and China.
varelse 5y ago
If instead of studying the winners you obsess on justifying why you are a loser then it seems unlikely you will find success in tech or any other endeavor. Are they now offering a degree in excuses and rationalizations?

thedrbrian 5y ago

Because it's going to be very hard to move France or Germany into the Pacific. Hell just moving them a few hundred miles into the Atlantic will be difficult .

taeric 5y ago

Are there good patterns here? Last I looked, it seemed more that there were nations that just hadn't been hit, yet. Especially as more of the heavy hit nations get it under control with vaccines, unless full isolation is the plan for the other nations, I'm not seeing an end game.

varelse 5y ago
Pattern #1: Don't politicize the pandemic. Pattern #2: Enforce mask mandates Pattern #3: terminate public officials who won't enforce immediately I'd say something about vaccines as well but I don't want to trigger the engineer epidemiologist demographic they are very fragile. But, you know, Israel (not an island nation even).
- taeric 5y ago
  While I agree with those points, my understanding is that the evidence is actually rather thin right now. About the only pattern that has consistently played out, is nations getting cocky and then getting smashed. And this doesn't address the end game. Vaccines are about the only route that makes sense. The rest seems to be akin to thinking condoms alone could solve STDs. They definitely help. They aren't getting is to the end, though.
  - varelse 5y ago
    Condoms bought time to come up with a treatment for HIV in the same way that masks bought time for us to arrive at vaccines, no?
    - taeric 5y ago
      I mean... Maybe? I don't think I ever saw evidence that they moved that needle. And to your previous point, a ton of damage came from politicizing the issue.
      - varelse 5y ago
        https://www.aidsmap.com/about-hiv/do-condoms-work https://www.aidsmap.com/about-hiv/do-condoms-work
        taeric 5y ago
        I'm not sure what you are getting at with posting that. Of course condoms work when used properly. Problem is that there is a high rate of not getting used properly, such that I'm not clear on how effective that is as a policy. The very first key takeaway is "Laboratory testing shows that condoms are impermeable to viruses, but protection rates are lower in real-world studies." Seeming to support my "maybe?" That is, I did not intend my "maybe" to cover the question of if condoms can do what they are designed to do. I meant that I wasn't aware of any studies showing how effective they are as a policy. And again, to your point, there are plenty of places where these are taken off the table as a policy, out of some misguided sense of propriety for the population. Please do not take my point as one that is against the use.

8note 5y ago

From a practical standpoint, different countries are really different both in culture and infrastructure. What worked in China was welding people into their houses, but that's not going to work of most people don't have metal doors

varelse 5y ago
I'm long past the point of believing anti-vaxxers who insist on loudly cosplaying this like it's the Holocaust should be welded into their homes if only because it's a lot cheaper than building camps for them to really enhance that cosplay they themselves opted into. And you don't even have to actually weld them in there all you need to do is put ankle monitors on them.