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> Well Europe certainly won't ally with China barring something insane happening. They've chosen the path of keeping more neutral, which lends to your first poi

> Well Europe certainly won't ally with China barring something insane happening. They've chosen the path of keeping more neutral, which lends to your first point about the stable configuration. European neutrality is all that China could hope for and it is good enough for strategic detente. > This move just upped the ante and is yet another signal of Anglosphere commitment to the region. If it is about moving US troops and assets out of harm's way by stationing them down under, it will be a strategic retreat dressed up as pivot. It is good for peace but it also gets US out of the play. US will be like Aaron Burr: out of the room where the play is made. > well why are European countries saber rattling against Chinese influence? Because some peripheral European countries are desperate to keep US engaged. As much as they don't like the Russians, they won't necessarily welcome German overlords either.

ericmay 5y ago
> European neutrality is all that China could hope for and it is good enough for strategic detente. Right which is why the US is moving forces out of the EU. But the problem is in the event of an actual war the EU will either be neutral (unlikely) or pro-US. It also doesn’t matter because the EU was never going to Asia anyway. So nothing of importance listed > If it is about moving US troops and assets out of harm's way by stationing them down under, it will be a strategic retreat dressed up as pivot. It is good for peace but it also gets US out of the play. US will be like Aaron Burr: out of the room where the play is made. No the US and the Anglosphere is just arming Australia. The US hasn’t withdrawn any troops. > Because some peripheral European countries are desperate to keep US engaged. As much as they don't like the Russians, they won't necessarily welcome German overlords either. Sure. That just means a thorn in the side of the Russians and Chinese.
- fspeech 5y ago
  > The US hasn’t withdrawn any troops. Sure but I thought your point is that US should or will leave Europe. I actually don't believe that will happen. > No the US and the Anglosphere is just arming Australia. The first sub is not expected to be in service before 2040.
  - ericmay 5y ago
    Well unless there is a reason to you’re probably not giving up bases but what I mean is that in terms of geopolitics the US is shifting remaining away from Europe. The region no longer supports the US interests (logistically or otherwise) because all the future action is in Asia. > The first sub is not expected to be in service before 2040. Right. So if you wanted to say that wasn’t meaningful, then they wouldn’t do it because the timeline is perceived to be too long. But I think they’re operating on longer time scales. But also this is just one action of many. Wouldn’t surprised to see something like a joint US, UK, Australian base in Australia or similar.

ericmay 5y ago

> European neutrality is all that China could hope for and it is good enough for strategic detente. Right which is why the US is moving forces out of the EU. But the problem is in the event of an actual war the EU will either be neutral (unlikely) or pro-US. It also doesn’t matter because the EU was never going to Asia anyway. So nothing of importance listed > If it is about moving US troops and assets out of harm's way by stationing them down under, it will be a strategic retreat dressed up as pivot. It is good for peace but it also gets US out of the play. US will be like Aaron Burr: out of the room where the play is made. No the US and the Anglosphere is just arming Australia. The US hasn’t withdrawn any troops. > Because some peripheral European countries are desperate to keep US engaged. As much as they don't like the Russians, they won't necessarily welcome German overlords either. Sure. That just means a thorn in the side of the Russians and Chinese.

fspeech 5y ago
> The US hasn’t withdrawn any troops. Sure but I thought your point is that US should or will leave Europe. I actually don't believe that will happen. > No the US and the Anglosphere is just arming Australia. The first sub is not expected to be in service before 2040.
- ericmay 5y ago
  Well unless there is a reason to you’re probably not giving up bases but what I mean is that in terms of geopolitics the US is shifting remaining away from Europe. The region no longer supports the US interests (logistically or otherwise) because all the future action is in Asia. > The first sub is not expected to be in service before 2040. Right. So if you wanted to say that wasn’t meaningful, then they wouldn’t do it because the timeline is perceived to be too long. But I think they’re operating on longer time scales. But also this is just one action of many. Wouldn’t surprised to see something like a joint US, UK, Australian base in Australia or similar.