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So what is Israel likely to do when Iran has a working nuke? I ask as a half jew. These questions are intensely interesting to me. Probably "no one knows" is

So what is Israel likely to do when Iran has a working nuke? I ask as a half jew. These questions are intensely interesting to me. Probably "no one knows" is a decent answer, but I can't help but wonder what sort of plans are already in place. EDIT: I immediately regret asking about politics. Never mind. Hopefully things will work out.

ianleeclark 5y ago
> So what is Israel likely to do when Iran has a working nuke? There's a big assumption in this statement. Hopefully stop attacking them if the assumption holds up.
jsudi 5y ago
Demand the USA pays for an endless war in money and American lives, obviously.
- howmayiannoyyou 5y ago
  An anti-Semitic, inaccurate trope. Israel had no horse in the Afghanistan fiasco, no interest in seeing Iran consume Iraq's power elite (status quo now), no love for Assad's continued reign in Syria, and zero interest in US interventions in Kosovo, Panama, Grenada, Vietnam or Korea. By contrast, Israeli lives sacrificed in Lebanon & Syria & on behalf of Jordan have spared the US any need to intervene significantly (if at all) in those countries. Not to mention Iran's expenditures to undermine Israel limits its ability to undermine the Gulf States.
  - neartheplain 5y ago
    The influence of the Israel lobby on the 2003 Iraq invasion is not an anti-Semitic trope, it is recorded and acknowledged history. The final decision to invade lay with George W. Bush, and the Israel lobby was far from the only factor in his decision, but their influence was significant and cannot be denied. From the London Review of Books on John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt's "The Israel Lobby": >Pressure from Israel and the Lobby was not the only factor behind the decision to attack Iraq in March 2003, but it was critical. Some Americans believe that this was a war for oil, but there is hardly any direct evidence to support this claim. Instead, the war was motivated in good part by a desire to make Israel more secure. >According to Philip Zelikow, a former member of the president’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, the executive director of the 9/11 Commission, and now a counsellor to Condoleezza Rice, the ‘real threat’ from Iraq was not a threat to the United States. The ‘unstated threat’ was the ‘threat against Israel’, Zelikow told an audience at the University of Virginia in September 2002. ‘The American government,’ he added, ‘doesn’t want to lean too hard on it rhetorically, because it is not a popular sell.’ https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v28/n06/john-mearsheimer/the-israel-lobby https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v28/n06/john-mearsheimer/the...
    - joelbluminator 5y ago
      You're quoting Mearsheimer as if it's established truth; he is controversial to say the least and is clearly one sided regarding Israel/Palestine. "Former Director of the CIA James Woolsey also wrote a strongly negative review, remarking that "... Reading [Walt and Mearsheimer's] version of events is like entering a completely different world." Woolsey contends the authors "are stunningly deceptive", and feature a "commitment to distorting the historical record is the one consistent feature of this book", proceeding with a few examples.[53]" "Benny Morris, a professor of Middle East history at Ben-Gurion University, prefaced a very detailed analysis with the remark: "Like many pro-Arab propagandists at work today, Mearsheimer and Walt often cite my own books, sometimes quoting directly from them, in apparent corroboration of their arguments. Yet their work is a travesty of the history that I have studied and written for the past two decades. Their work is riddled with shoddiness and defiled by mendacity" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Israel_Lobby_and_U.S._Foreign_Policy#Criticism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Israel_Lobby_and_U.S._Fore...
      - sofixa 5y ago
        Do you have non-biased ( former director of the CIA? The same guys that lied about WMDs in Iraq? Sure, they're reliable; and a professor of Middle East history in an Israeli university) sources disputing those claims? I haven't read the book in question, just asking.
        joelbluminator 5y ago
        There's a hole bunch of criticisms in the link I shared from all kinds of people, feel free to read it if it interests you.
  - sevensunsets 5y ago
    There's nothing wrong with discussing the reality of Israeli Zionist influence on US & World governemnts. "To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize" If you'd like to learn more, simply read Culture of Critique (google Culture of Critique PDF for a free version) to learn about the principles of Judaism and the (lack of) respect they have for non-Jews (considered "cattle" by "the chosen"). Nah, let's lose the facade. Israel, Mossad, and the Zionist Lobby has been playing this game for a long time, but we of the free internet have been watching and discussing the situation for years. It has long been time for this discussion to exit the shadows. It is not anti-semitic to note the disporportionate influence Israeli & Zionists have on all leadership of all three branches of the US government. (Not to mention their involvement in other governments as well as revolutions-- Bolshevik & Chinese communist revolutions were funded & advised by Jews.) imho: it's Anti-American not to discuss this situation. Biden's administration leadership is majority populated by Jews: TLDR List: https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jews-in-the-biden-administration https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jews-in-the-biden-admin... More in depth background info in this list: https://www.timesofisrael.com/all-the-jews-biden-has-tapped-for-top-roles-in-his-new-administration/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/all-the-jews-biden-has-tapped-... His head of intelligence is an orthodox Jewish woman https://www.timesofisrael.com/biden-to-pick-orthodox-jewish-woman-for-white-house-cybersecurity-post-report/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/biden-to-pick-orthodox-jewish-... This article ends with a list of Jewish administration leaders in Trump's circle: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/joe-bidens-a-team-of-jewish-advisers-cabinet-members-and-staff-658350 https://www.jpost.com/opinion/joe-bidens-a-team-of-jewish-ad... (Fun fact: all of Biden's and Trump's children are married to Jews as well.)
shoo 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction#Criticism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction#Cri...
pengaru 5y ago
Israel seems likely to receive a similarly smuggled-in remotely-activated attack, in the form of a small nuclear bomb, with no clear evidence of who's responsible. MAD doesn't seem effective if you don't know who to attack...
- dogma1138 5y ago
  MAD can still be effective if you say any non conventional attack by any actor would trigger it. That said MAD in this case isn’t viable due to the inequality in geographic size and population. A single warhead even a small one would cripple Israel complete whilst Iran can take multiple warheads and survive. A 50 kiloton warhead detonated over Tel Aviv would reduce Israel’s economy to basically nothing.
  - pengaru 5y ago
    > MAD can still be effective if you say any non conventional attack by any actor would trigger it. Isn't this a terrorist's wet dream?
  - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    >A 50 kiloton warhead detonated over Tel Aviv would reduce Israel’s economy to basically nothing. At which point America would step in.
    - dogma1138 5y ago
      It wouldn’t change the outcome.
      - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
        It would for Iran.
  - joelbluminator 5y ago
    It's really unlikely a nuke on TLV will be reciprocated with one nuke of the same exact magnitute on Iran; it's more likely Israel will use everything it has to destroy Iran. Tehran's larger metro area is 15 million people with most of the economy and jobs there. What do you think a few hydrogen bombs (which Israel is known to have) will do to Iran's economy or regime survival? It's mutually assured destruction, period. No side is gonna win a nuclear war.
bawolff 5y ago
I imagine they will continue to do whatever they think serves their geopolitical position best. Nukes would give iran a significant power boost and bargaining chip, but it wouldn't magically make them rulers of the world. Iran's geopolitical enemies would still try to contain them, iran would still try and not be contained. Similar to what happened when the soviets got nukes, but on a much smaller regional scale.
- FridayoLeary 5y ago
  The only local enemies capable of containing Iran is Israel. Even the Saudis are afraid of Iran. Hence the Abraham Accords and a peace treaty between Israel and Saudi Arabia is imminent. And Israel isn't intimidating every single one of its neighbours and trying to control them and starting proxy wars with them. And committing acts of terror against random Iranians all over the world. So Israel have the moral upper ground here.
  - LegitShady 5y ago
    when iran gets nukes, saudi will get nukes.
joelbluminator 5y ago
As you said nobody knows. When Iran has a working nuke it's arguable too late. Then we should all hope there will be mutually assured destruction that will lessen the probability of war. Also - there will probably be countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt who will try to acquire nukes if Iran gets them. So I understand the thought this only touches Jews or half Jews but it really is a global problem.

ianleeclark 5y ago

> So what is Israel likely to do when Iran has a working nuke? There's a big assumption in this statement. Hopefully stop attacking them if the assumption holds up.

jsudi 5y ago

Demand the USA pays for an endless war in money and American lives, obviously.

howmayiannoyyou 5y ago
An anti-Semitic, inaccurate trope. Israel had no horse in the Afghanistan fiasco, no interest in seeing Iran consume Iraq's power elite (status quo now), no love for Assad's continued reign in Syria, and zero interest in US interventions in Kosovo, Panama, Grenada, Vietnam or Korea. By contrast, Israeli lives sacrificed in Lebanon & Syria & on behalf of Jordan have spared the US any need to intervene significantly (if at all) in those countries. Not to mention Iran's expenditures to undermine Israel limits its ability to undermine the Gulf States.
- neartheplain 5y ago
  The influence of the Israel lobby on the 2003 Iraq invasion is not an anti-Semitic trope, it is recorded and acknowledged history. The final decision to invade lay with George W. Bush, and the Israel lobby was far from the only factor in his decision, but their influence was significant and cannot be denied. From the London Review of Books on John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt's "The Israel Lobby": >Pressure from Israel and the Lobby was not the only factor behind the decision to attack Iraq in March 2003, but it was critical. Some Americans believe that this was a war for oil, but there is hardly any direct evidence to support this claim. Instead, the war was motivated in good part by a desire to make Israel more secure. >According to Philip Zelikow, a former member of the president’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, the executive director of the 9/11 Commission, and now a counsellor to Condoleezza Rice, the ‘real threat’ from Iraq was not a threat to the United States. The ‘unstated threat’ was the ‘threat against Israel’, Zelikow told an audience at the University of Virginia in September 2002. ‘The American government,’ he added, ‘doesn’t want to lean too hard on it rhetorically, because it is not a popular sell.’ https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v28/n06/john-mearsheimer/the-israel-lobby https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v28/n06/john-mearsheimer/the...
  - joelbluminator 5y ago
    You're quoting Mearsheimer as if it's established truth; he is controversial to say the least and is clearly one sided regarding Israel/Palestine. "Former Director of the CIA James Woolsey also wrote a strongly negative review, remarking that "... Reading [Walt and Mearsheimer's] version of events is like entering a completely different world." Woolsey contends the authors "are stunningly deceptive", and feature a "commitment to distorting the historical record is the one consistent feature of this book", proceeding with a few examples.[53]" "Benny Morris, a professor of Middle East history at Ben-Gurion University, prefaced a very detailed analysis with the remark: "Like many pro-Arab propagandists at work today, Mearsheimer and Walt often cite my own books, sometimes quoting directly from them, in apparent corroboration of their arguments. Yet their work is a travesty of the history that I have studied and written for the past two decades. Their work is riddled with shoddiness and defiled by mendacity" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Israel_Lobby_and_U.S._Foreign_Policy#Criticism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Israel_Lobby_and_U.S._Fore...
    - sofixa 5y ago
      Do you have non-biased ( former director of the CIA? The same guys that lied about WMDs in Iraq? Sure, they're reliable; and a professor of Middle East history in an Israeli university) sources disputing those claims? I haven't read the book in question, just asking.
      - joelbluminator 5y ago
        There's a hole bunch of criticisms in the link I shared from all kinds of people, feel free to read it if it interests you.
- sevensunsets 5y ago
  There's nothing wrong with discussing the reality of Israeli Zionist influence on US & World governemnts. "To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize" If you'd like to learn more, simply read Culture of Critique (google Culture of Critique PDF for a free version) to learn about the principles of Judaism and the (lack of) respect they have for non-Jews (considered "cattle" by "the chosen"). Nah, let's lose the facade. Israel, Mossad, and the Zionist Lobby has been playing this game for a long time, but we of the free internet have been watching and discussing the situation for years. It has long been time for this discussion to exit the shadows. It is not anti-semitic to note the disporportionate influence Israeli & Zionists have on all leadership of all three branches of the US government. (Not to mention their involvement in other governments as well as revolutions-- Bolshevik & Chinese communist revolutions were funded & advised by Jews.) imho: it's Anti-American not to discuss this situation. Biden's administration leadership is majority populated by Jews: TLDR List: https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jews-in-the-biden-administration https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jews-in-the-biden-admin... More in depth background info in this list: https://www.timesofisrael.com/all-the-jews-biden-has-tapped-for-top-roles-in-his-new-administration/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/all-the-jews-biden-has-tapped-... His head of intelligence is an orthodox Jewish woman https://www.timesofisrael.com/biden-to-pick-orthodox-jewish-woman-for-white-house-cybersecurity-post-report/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/biden-to-pick-orthodox-jewish-... This article ends with a list of Jewish administration leaders in Trump's circle: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/joe-bidens-a-team-of-jewish-advisers-cabinet-members-and-staff-658350 https://www.jpost.com/opinion/joe-bidens-a-team-of-jewish-ad... (Fun fact: all of Biden's and Trump's children are married to Jews as well.)

shoo 5y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction#Criticism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction#Cri...

pengaru 5y ago

Israel seems likely to receive a similarly smuggled-in remotely-activated attack, in the form of a small nuclear bomb, with no clear evidence of who's responsible. MAD doesn't seem effective if you don't know who to attack...

dogma1138 5y ago
MAD can still be effective if you say any non conventional attack by any actor would trigger it. That said MAD in this case isn’t viable due to the inequality in geographic size and population. A single warhead even a small one would cripple Israel complete whilst Iran can take multiple warheads and survive. A 50 kiloton warhead detonated over Tel Aviv would reduce Israel’s economy to basically nothing.
- pengaru 5y ago
  > MAD can still be effective if you say any non conventional attack by any actor would trigger it. Isn't this a terrorist's wet dream?
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  >A 50 kiloton warhead detonated over Tel Aviv would reduce Israel’s economy to basically nothing. At which point America would step in.
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    It wouldn’t change the outcome.
    - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
      It would for Iran.
- joelbluminator 5y ago
  It's really unlikely a nuke on TLV will be reciprocated with one nuke of the same exact magnitute on Iran; it's more likely Israel will use everything it has to destroy Iran. Tehran's larger metro area is 15 million people with most of the economy and jobs there. What do you think a few hydrogen bombs (which Israel is known to have) will do to Iran's economy or regime survival? It's mutually assured destruction, period. No side is gonna win a nuclear war.

bawolff 5y ago

I imagine they will continue to do whatever they think serves their geopolitical position best. Nukes would give iran a significant power boost and bargaining chip, but it wouldn't magically make them rulers of the world. Iran's geopolitical enemies would still try to contain them, iran would still try and not be contained. Similar to what happened when the soviets got nukes, but on a much smaller regional scale.

FridayoLeary 5y ago
The only local enemies capable of containing Iran is Israel. Even the Saudis are afraid of Iran. Hence the Abraham Accords and a peace treaty between Israel and Saudi Arabia is imminent. And Israel isn't intimidating every single one of its neighbours and trying to control them and starting proxy wars with them. And committing acts of terror against random Iranians all over the world. So Israel have the moral upper ground here.
- LegitShady 5y ago
  when iran gets nukes, saudi will get nukes.

joelbluminator 5y ago

As you said nobody knows. When Iran has a working nuke it's arguable too late. Then we should all hope there will be mutually assured destruction that will lessen the probability of war. Also - there will probably be countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt who will try to acquire nukes if Iran gets them. So I understand the thought this only touches Jews or half Jews but it really is a global problem.