3 ms·

You are being repeatedly downvoted because you are repeatedly saying that the description is not of the classical Monty Hall problem. Here's the description in

You are being repeatedly downvoted because you are repeatedly saying that the description is not of the classical Monty Hall problem. Here's the description in the comic: * Suppose you can pick door A, door B, or door C. * Two doors hide a goat. One hides a prize. * You pick one, then the host reveals that one of the other doors hides a goat. * Should you switch? Let me say that I think that in this description it is fairly clearly implied that: a) The host reveals the presence of a goat by opening one of the other doors; b) The host will open a door, regardless of whether you picked the prize or not; c) The host knows where the prize is, and specifically opens a door to reveal a goat. I believe (a) because we know by counting that one of the other doors hides a goat. If saying "the host reveals that one of the other doors hides a goat" is not content free, then it must imply that the host actually does some revealing. I believe (b) because we are told that the host does reveal a goat in (a). With no conditioning mentioned I believe it is fair to assume that the host will always open a door. I believe (c) because if the host does not know where the prize is, then they must open a door at random, and would not be guaranteed to reveal a goat. I believe the statement as it stands precludes that. So, can you tell us exactly why you think this is an incorrect description? Can you tell us exactly why the probability of winning the prize upon switching are not improved to 2/3?

mrob 5y ago
The implications are not clear. I suspect you only think they're clear because you already know the classical problem, or perhaps because you have more faith in the good intentions of strangers than I do. My personal reaction to the scenario described in the comic would be that the host was trying to trick me because it would make for more dramatic television (only revealing the goat because I'd picked the car), and the correct decision would be to refuse the offer. Your belief (a) is compatible with my common sense assumption that the host's goal is to maximize drama by making me lose the car, not to help me. Your belief (b) is incompatible with my assumption, but it is not required by the wording of the Math Goblins problem. Your belief (c) is compatible with my assumption. All of Jensson's comments in this discussion are correct, and they are being unfairly downvoted.

mrob 5y ago

The implications are not clear. I suspect you only think they're clear because you already know the classical problem, or perhaps because you have more faith in the good intentions of strangers than I do. My personal reaction to the scenario described in the comic would be that the host was trying to trick me because it would make for more dramatic television (only revealing the goat because I'd picked the car), and the correct decision would be to refuse the offer. Your belief (a) is compatible with my common sense assumption that the host's goal is to maximize drama by making me lose the car, not to help me. Your belief (b) is incompatible with my assumption, but it is not required by the wording of the Math Goblins problem. Your belief (c) is compatible with my assumption. All of Jensson's comments in this discussion are correct, and they are being unfairly downvoted.