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I think the Australian actions here were reasonable, the project was massively over budget and well behind schedule. The regional security situation has shifted
by jeeeb 5y ago
I think the Australian actions here were reasonable, the project was massively over budget and well behind schedule. The regional security situation has shifted a lot in the last 5 years since this project was announced.
The news could have been delivered more nicely but there was always going to be fallout. Ultimately Australia doesn’t owe France a submarine contract, and France wasn’t doing Australia a favour by letting it buy submarines. It was a commercial agreement that Australia no longer wishes to pursue.
For Australia I think the strategic calculus is in a way simple. The US is the only country that can credibly oppose China. If a significant escalation of tensions with China is at all likely, then Australia’s best chance would be to operate closely with and support the US in opposing China.
The submarines come as part of a larger package including larger US forces being based out of Australia and the placement of tomahawk missiles in Australia.
The more interesting questions I think are is open conflict with China likely and does China actually pose a threat to Australian sovereignty?
- siderax 5y agoThe thing that make the french government angry is not much the cancellation of the contract, but how it was done it completely in secret behind his back. You just don't do that to ally on the geopolitical stage.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- greenhatman 5y agoI think the contract was important for France for soft power in the around the Pacific ocean as well. It's probably a very big loss to them in that regard, and I can't see how they can ever make up for that again. They're permanently hamstrung basically.
- jeeeb 5y agoI do think it could have been handled in a more diplomatic fashion, but there was never going to be a nice way to break the news. Further I think if the Naval Group had been anywhere close to delivering on time and on budget then it would have been a fundamentally different discussion. France would have been at the table and part of the deal. I think the big problem for France now is how to protect the reputation of the Naval Group. If this is seen as a failure to deliver by the Naval Group then future export opportunities may be threatened. So instead France is aiming to portray as a grand betrayal by Australia and the US.
- siderax 5y agoIt is somewhat a betrayal. Secret negotiation is a way for US and Australia of telling to France (after 30 years of collaboration in Pacific) "We don't want to work on strategic stuff with France anymore".