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Justin Trudeau Vows Two-Year Ban on Foreign Home Buyers in Canada Election
- brailsafe 5y agoSeems like he's scrambling, and probably thought his odds were good enough going in without having to bring this up, even though it's probably even a more contentious issue than the pandemic response. With a single-bedroom condo costing between 550 and 750k in the suburbs of Vancouver, people who work locally are leaving for the more affordable pastures of the prairies and taking the work with them if they can.
- rkk3 5y agoSerious question. With the borders closed have there even been many foreign home buyers?
- ALittleLight 5y agoMy understanding is that the foreign buyers use the real estate as an investment, so they wouldn't be deterred if they couldn't visit their property in person.
- accountofme 5y agoThe same thing is happening here in Australia (foreign investment). Frankly, this might backfire for Trudeau, as yes housing prices are insane, but a lot of voters also own houses. Anything that could now cause prices to drop is seen as a negative and therefore will find voter backlash. Labor in Australia tried something similar at the last election with IIRC removal of negative gearing (tax cuts for investment properties), they lost.
- kenned3 5y agoThey are using housing to jump the queue for immigration : https://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=653&top=6 https://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=653... it gives them a place to flee later in life. many of the houses bought by foreigners are vacant and have never been occupied. For a gimps into this, look at Meng Wanzhou’s Vancouver mansions How many mansions does a chinese national need in Vancouver?
- rkk3 5y ago> They are using housing to jump the queue for immigration : That is a link to a startup visa program... > it gives them a place to flee later in life. many of the houses bought by foreigners are vacant and have never been occupied. > For a gimps into this, look at Meng Wanzhou’s Vancouver mansions So Vancouver is expensive because a Billionaire's daughter has a 4m USD and a 11m USD Mansion ?
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- Rebelgecko 5y agoA temporary ban seems like it won't be very impactful in the long term. Have these sorts of policies, even when permanent, had much of an impact on places where they're implemented? From what I've heard it doesn't seem to have cooled off the market in places like New Zealand
- potatochup 5y agoIt didn't have measurable impact in NZ. NZ has many other, bigger, problems w.r.t. housing affordability though. I think it's a policy worth doing even if it doesn't actually reduce house prices because it removes an obvious scapegoat, and shifts the discussion to other, hopefully more effective solutions.
- bllguo 5y agothe blame-the-foreigners narrative has always sounded too convenient to be entirely true. People used to love saying this in California, when there clearly are so many other problems with housing like Prop 13 and zoning. Is there any data from reputable sources that actually quantifies this effect?
- bushbaba 5y agoProp 13 protects existing long-term home owners. Ive seen no solid report that it has impact on current prices. I’d wager CEQ and zoning laws have done more harm than prop 13. Government backed lending is a primary cause. Just like how student loans enabled university costs to skyrocket.
- khuey 5y ago"protecting existing long-term home owners" is another way of saying "reducing available supply" which is absolutely going to have an impact on prices.
- freyr 5y agoYou might try this paper (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2020.1842340 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2020.1...). From the abstract: “Using new data from the Canadian Housing Statistics Program (CHSP), this paper provides a basis for an integrated account of the Canadian housing market in the last two decades. It shows how the housing markets in Vancouver and, to a lesser extent, Toronto have become de-coupled from local incomes due to significant flows of foreign capital.” Regardless, is there a case to be made why a country should allow its housing supply to be treated as an investment vehicle, instead of the more beneficial purpose of housing its citizens? In cases like this, where a state’s obligation to the welfare of its people seems self-evident, the burden of proof is on you to to show that the massive and widespread foreign investment in real estate leading up to a housing affordability crisis somehow was not a factor.
- dginbfesdbjo 5y agoThis is the wrong approach, solving a superficial symptom of a deeper root cause. The problem is that housing is a commodity, not that foreign persons are purchasing the commodity. I guarantee you that if he follows through on this we'll see enterprising Canadian "entrepreneurs" buying the homes and creating securities to hide the ownership details and then selling those securities abroad. If the market exists, wealthy folks will find a way to play in that market.
- aelzeiny 5y agoXenophobia is a classic way to win an election. From that perspective this is a great policy for him.
- dontparticipate 5y agoMaybe I don't know enough about how this works in Canada in particular, but will this do anything? I thought a lot of the issue was from housing as an investment vehicle, and not specifically foreign investment. And are foreign investors really buying the real estate directly, or are they purchasing REITs and the trusts are buying them on their behalf (laundering the "foreignness" of the investment)? And, as always, what does this do to address housing supply? Are foreigners also restricted from investing in new construction which might actually lower or slow housing costs?
- exporectomy 5y agoWe had this in New Zealand a few years ago too. Prices kept climbing regardless (in my area, prices have doubled in the 3 years since the ban). The real problem is normal owner-occupier homebuyers since they do most of the buying. But they're also the common people and the "victims" so they can't easily blame themselves for their own greed and need a scapegoat like foreigners or investors.
- mixmastamyk 5y agoIf that’s the case, with enough housing supply prices would be stable. Both can’t be true however.
- exporectomy 5y agoNot entirely. In NZ, people really favor single family homes near or in big cities. That just doesn't scale because of finite land. Nobody wants to settle for a duplex or worse, an apartment. Perhaps eventually prices for those high density homes will be stable and single-family-home owners will be super rich.
- mixmastamyk 5y agoWell yes, there’s always been more desirable properties. Location, location, location, and now especially? SFH.
- krickkrack 5y agoTypical - print 100s of billions, when assets inflate blame x, y or z. How about Justin explains how foreigners owning 2% of homes in Canada has ANY impact whatsoever on prices?
- epa 5y agoIt has been an issue in the Canadian market for 20 years now and has had a material impact on housing prices in certain big markets.
- krickkrack 5y agoI understand that this is the narrative, but show me what markets specifically. Even if ownership is 10%. That means 90% of homes that are bought and sold are NOT to foreigners. The fact is that inflation has eroded away the value of $$ and houses that should cost $50,000 now cost $700k.
- SantalBlush 5y agoWhen supply isn't moving much, a 10% increase in quantity demanded is a lot. That would make a big difference in a market.
- throw0101a 5y ago> The fact is that inflation has eroded away the value of $$ and houses that should cost $50,000 now cost $700k. There's a particular problem with that hypothesis: > Over the past 5 years, single-family home prices are up 150% in London-St. Thomas [Ontario], but down in Regina. They've barely budged in Edmonton. Monetary policy provides no explanation for that phenomenon. * https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1430892821968392198 https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1430892821968392198 Meanwhile, when you increase the population, but do not have a corresponding increase in supply: * https://mikepmoffatt.medium.com/ontarians-on-the-move-2021-edition-e91f0cec927f https://mikepmoffatt.medium.com/ontarians-on-the-move-2021-e... There's no need to get into hard money, gold bug tropes about asset prices when supply and demand effects can explain regional price rises.
- vmception 5y agoAs someone that's been a moderately successful transplant in many cities, I have seen local populations point the fingers at very arbitrary reasons or people for why people can't afford anything. The commonalities between these populations is that they seems to neglect general macroeconomic trends, as well as local zoning gaffs. Makes it almost impossible for me to empathize if everyone is so far off the mark. Fortunately, being a melanin-infused minority I get to blend in to the left side of the inequality bell curve. So, that's a nice privilege in the populist uprising. "Gotta watch out for those gentrifiers I'll let you know if I see any! I can't believe anyone would have the audacity to pay the listed prices or leases set by landlords already here." A foreign buyer ban will also miss the mark.
- lwansbrough 5y agoNice, this will curb the unacceptably high 4% of home buyers who are foreign who are definitely responsible for driving the market prices up. It certainly couldn't be driven up by the fact that if you ask virtually any person under 40 if they will purchase a home once they can afford one they will say yes. If only there was a way you could put more than one home on a single lot so you could actually meet demand without building $300m apartment buildings.
- baybal2 5y agoI lived in Vancouver for 6 years. > Nice, this will curb the unacceptably high 4% of home buyers who are foreign who are definitely responsible for driving the market prices up. These 4% are driving up prices of the most elite real estate, and crowding out rich elite upper-middle-class Canadians, who invest in real estate, and live in big cities (read Toronto, and Vancouver.) That's the real problem for them. So, these unacceptably high 4% is mostly visible on West Georgia, and Cambie, and then DT Vancouver, and Toronto. Most people unhappy about it are rich recent immigrants wanting to buy a house themselves. Please make a distinction in between migrants with Canadian passport, or PR, and foreign buyers without any relationship to the country.
- kenned3 5y agothey also use this to jump to the head of the line for their PR. https://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=653&top=6 https://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=653...
- lwansbrough 5y agoMy whole post was being sarcastic. None of those groups are responsible for the vast majority of demand in this country, it is people who have been living here their whole lives like myself who are priced out simply because there isn't supply for them. The population has grown but the housing has not. And we're doing nothing to meet that demand with additional supply, just slightly cutting down the demand, which doesn't do anything to address the underlying problem.
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- rubayeet 5y agoForeign ownership of houses comprises only small % of the housing market [1]. The measures promised (but all political parties, not just Trudeau) have been applied in New Zealand and their housing market still remain white hot. The root cause is low supply of houses in Canada, the red tape around land / property development keeps construction of housing slow and costly. [1] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-626-x/11-626-x2017078-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-626-x/11-626-x2017078...
- jseliger 5y agoThe housing discourse has long since reached the point of satire: Canada will try absolutely anything to lower the price of housing except build more housing: https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/i-will-do-anything-to-end-homelessness-except-build-more-homes https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/i-will-do-anything-to-en.... Meanwhile, https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-everything/ https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-e...
- klyrs 5y agoIt's even worse than that. Developers are building huge skyscrapers full of housing. Problem is, it's all luxury housing, well above average prices for comparable square footage. Then, people who don't want that luxury will end up stretching their budgets to buy it due to a lack of options in their price range. Developers have huge influence on local politics, so I don't really see a way to escape this.
- gruez 5y ago> Problem is, it's all luxury housing, well above average prices for comparable square footage but that's fine right? The people rich people moving into the "luxury" apartments will free up the "nice" apartments for middle class people to move into, who will subsequently free up the "okay" apartments. Building $30k cars also doesn't help the college student/single parent who has a budget of <$3000, yet we don't try to outlaw those cars or mandate "affordable" cars because "people who don't want that luxury will end up stretching their budgets to buy it due to a lack of options in their price range".
- anon7725 5y agoImmigration is likely a much larger driver of housing price increases than foreign ownership. Canada admits 300k immigrants per year, 2/3 of those are economic/skilled entrants who will be looking to buy property 3-5 years after arrival.
- itake 5y agoyelp is shifting their engineering office to canada for the cheap talent and friendly immigration laws.
- Proven 5y agowasn't everyone moving to work from home and remotely, why would they need an office?
- baybal2 5y agoYes, and not to say, Canada grants PR, or Citizenship very fast. 2-4 years in most cases.
- idoh 5y agoIt’s so crazy, the government just has to get out of the way of developers and then the problem will just sort of solve itself. We are sitting on the biggest economic opportunity thinkable because there is 30+ years of pent up construction demand. Simply letting that happen would unlock so much prosperity for decades.
- justicezyx 5y agoI support this! Curbs the transfer of dirty money by the robber barons in China.
- kenned3 5y agoThis is such BS on so many levels. First, how is this still an issue given affordable housing was his platform in 2015? October 5, 2015 Infrastructure: The Liberals want to invest $20 billion in public transit over 10 years, almost $20 billion more over 10 years for affordable housing, seniors’ facilities, early learning and recreational facilities; and $6 billion for green infrastructure over four years. They would also create various tax incentives and other programs to encourage the construction of both rental market and social housing. Next, all this will do is encourage the use of "numbered corporations" to do the buying. How many homes in Canada are already owned this way? use the existing anti-money laundering laws and stop the using Canada as a means to launder ill gotten gains.
- rmk 5y agoLooking at the similar moves by politicians in the US (e.g, a package of bills to incentivize housing development by eliminating single-family zoning passed in California), Hong Kong (some measures to help people afford property by increasing land supply) and elsewhere, I can't help but think that the millennials are finally coming into their own as a political constituency.
- cryptodan 5y agoGood way to prevent immigration.
- autoliteInline 5y agoSo the foreign buyers enter in a partnership with a bank like they do in parts of Mexico. Net change = nothing.
- phendrenad2 5y agoNever thought I'd see Trudeau go for the cheap easy "Canada first" policy, but here we are. I guess four years of Trump did something to him.
- sevilo 5y agoJustin Trudeau has been in power for 6 years and now he finally wants to address a problem that contributes to a percentage as large as 4% of the real estate market. This man will seriously say whatever feel good crap people wanna hear but don’t actually address problems just to hold onto power. And yet the amount of support he somehow still has in Canada makes me feel reassured it was a good decision to leave, people in this country will vote for whoever’s most woke even if their actions tell the exact opposite of what they said they stand for.