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1960s Mouse Utopias Led to Grim Predictions for Future of Humanity (2015)
- roenxi 5y agoThis experiment doesn't tell us much of anything about the future of humanity. * There aren't enough parallels between human social patterns and mice. Human intelligence seems to be largely about managing social relationships and we might reasonably expect that to have big implications at scale. * Resource scarcity is still the major problem at the level humans operate at. The global median lifestyle is sustained on less than $10k/annum, and a human can comfortably consume an order of magnitude more than that without giving in to hedonism. There is reason to believe resources will give out before we hit that limit. * The experiment is a bit artificial.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- trhway 5y agothe experiment showcases basics of biology. A biological population is mostly controlled by scarcity of resources. Decreasing scarcity leads to population growth. That leads to increased density. Fast changes don't allow for sufficient smooth adaptation, and instead cause breakdown of existing related patterns (in that particular case fast density increase breaks social behavior patterns which evolved to manage much lesser density). That applicable to any biological system, not just mice and people.
- White_Wolf 5y agoIt's not as simple as that with humans. scarcity is just of factor of many. I don't think there's a scarcity problem these days yet population is still declining(especially in educated/civilized countries). That's been ongoing since the 70's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline
- trhway 5y ago1. scarcity isn't only of food, which is basically solved, there is also other resources which are scarce like place to live, etc. 2.children for humans were a way to hedge against scarcity issue in the old age. With that issue decreasing the children are less needed for that. The point is it still directly connected to scarcity (or lack of it).
- hpoe 5y agoI got fascinated by this experiment and read the paper about it a while back. To me it is haunting what it implies, on the other hand I also have to believe that humanity are not rats and are more capable smarter and able to reason in ways rats cannot. Ultimately whenever I enocunter these apocalyptic Malthusian predictions I also try and remind myself that the original Malthus was wrong, so was everyone else that predicted the end of the world and collapse of society, thus this prediction is likely wrong as well.
- TeMPOraL 5y ago> I also try and remind myself that the original Malthus was wrong Was he wrong in the sense his predictions didn't make sense, or was he just mistaken about the timeline because he didn't predict us getting lucky with Haber–Bosch process and finding shitload of oil to burn? Because I feel it's just the latter - which doesn't invalidate the predictions, just delays them.
- Spooky23 5y agoI suppose a broken clock is right twice a day. When you look at the types of preventable misery inflicted by philosophical sympathizers, such as the Irish Famine, the banal evil of such a lazy train of thought kinda jumps out.
- AtlasBarfed 5y agoMalthus had laughably simple mathematical models (strict geometric growth, strict additive food growth IIRC) but the fact that we are staring a worldwide climate crisis and species extinction problem as we race towards 8 billion people and a very uncertain future seems to validate Malthus more than anything. The 20th century was a century of abundant utilization of resources. Unless space mining takes off, I don't think people in the know consider the 21st century in a similar light. The exploitation curves of oil fields are basically similar to many other things: mines, agriculture, etc. We have resources that are easy to get to and use, and others that are progressively less economical/productive. In oil, we're entering the age of tar sands and fracking to keep things afloat until the switchover to EVs happens. EROEI on those things is far worse than the early 1900s where you could stick a pipe into a ground, dig ten feet down and light sweet crude oil would explode out. Technology keeps bailing us out, but one could view technology the same way: a great deal of simple technology has been pruned from the tech tree. Now we're on 3nm semiconductors, nanostructures, microbiology. Which are all amazing, but those are of increasing complication and increasing cost to bring to market. So almost all resources are "developed" from more difficult to exploit sources now. I think his point is that we have unchecked growth and just one planet currently.
- sbierwagen 5y agohttps://www.gwern.net/Mouse-Utopia https://www.gwern.net/Mouse-Utopia >Mouse Utopia is almost completely unpublished. Despite working on it and similar experiments with NIMH funding for decades (he “continued to work on his research results until his death on September 7, 1995”), Calhoun appears to have published almost nothing substantive about his research, limited to a handful of short summary articles or passing references. >It is unclear just how many experiments Calhoun had to run to get the one result which is always talked about; the name “Universe 25” implies at least 24 prior experiments, and Calhoun speaks vaguely of multiple “series” of experiments, referencing earlier experiments with stable populations (unlike Universe 25), some which were apparently controlled to fixed population sizes and some which apparently were not. Nor did all of the overpopulated universes develop the “behavioral sink” phenomenon Calhoun lays so much stress on, which he attributes to an otherwise-unexplained change in the food type. >No followup literature: only 2 partial replications have ever been done by third parties that I know of; likewise, if unique aspects of Calhoun’s experiment like the “beautiful ones” have been reported since, I have not encountered any references to them. They do not convincingly support the Universe 25 Mouse Utopia narrative.
- throwaway91321 5y agoI've noticed that there were a number of high profile social experiments around that time (50's-70's) that tried to show something inherent elements of humanity that cause us to turn evil. The Stanford prison experiment, Robbers Cave experiment, The Third Wave, etc. When you start to look deep into any of these, they all seem to have mostly been done by charlatans who manipulated results and sensationalized findings in order to get publicity.
- tdeck 5y agoThe popular-audience book Humankind by Rutger Bregman goes into the history of some of these classic experiments. In particular I was pretty shocked at how badly run the Stanford prison experiment was, and how lackluster and different the results were in the BBC's attempt to replicate. Granted, participants in that second experiment knew it would be televised, but that's not necessarily a recipe for good behavior, and they certainly engaged in conflict. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Experiment
- PrinceRichard 5y agoConscious beings must not be subject to these cruel experiments, or any experiments we wouldn't ourselves submit to.
- ccvannorman 5y agoTotally useless information, since overpopulation will never happen (mainly because as countries evolve and middle class emerges, birth rates plummet.) Even by 2100 population will barely top 10 Bn and will take a millennia to reach 15. [0] [0] Pew Research: "By 2100, the world's population is projected to reach approximately 10.9 billion, with annual growth of less than 0.1% – a steep decline from the current rate. Between 1950 and today, the world's population grew between 1% and 2% each year, with the number of people rising from 2.5 billion to more than 7.7 billion"
- gscott 5y agoWhen you fly over the United States most is uninhabited and we have the ability to build up density through height. We are even facing a population crises where we don't have enough people to work the jobs that are open now, much less the number of jobs in the next ten years.
- ta988 5y agoIt is not just space, this we have a lot I agree. It is also the ressources and these we have less and we are dependent on others that are also potentially ressource starved.
- korantu 5y agoIn last 20 years in the US and other first world countries resource consumption and CO2 emissions flattened or even reversed, whereas economic growth continued almost exponentially. We can now do way more with less resources.
- burnafter182 5y agoDefine economic growth.
- korantu 5y agoIt is indeed difficult/impossible to define precisely, but GDP and GDP per capita is a good start
- awb 5y agoHere’s the Wikipedia article about the experiment: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink And the controversy: > Controversy exists over the implications of the experiment. Psychologist Jonathan Freedman's experiment recruited high school and university students to carry out a series of experiments that measured the effects of density on behavior. He measured their stress, discomfort, aggression, competitiveness, and general unpleasantness. He declared to have found no appreciable negative effects in 1975. Researchers argued that "Calhoun's work was not simply about density in a physical sense, as number of individuals-per-square-unit-area, but was about degrees of social interaction."
- MrWiffles 5y agoMy biggest problem with this article isn’t the research itself, but the fact that The Smithsonian caint no grammur guud no mo. Seriously, it reads in places like “hookt on fonix rillee wurkt” for the author.
- crooked-v 5y agoCalling it a "utopia" is pretty weird, and it doubly annoys me that no journalists who talks about this line of experiments ever actually mentions that. The analogous situation for humans wouldn't be a utopia... it would be be a wildly overcrowded prison with no entertainment, no exercise equipment, and no outside access ever. Of course people, and animals, go crazy under those sorts of conditions.
- op00to 5y agoThank you for saying this. All animals need intellectual stimulation, living in a panopticon is not that.
- Borrible 5y agoSo, did someone cared to replicate the experiments? And could Calhouns interpretations in his writings and the culturally pessimistic doomsayings the 1970s loved to spawn be confirmed?
- mseepgood 5y agoIf they do it with humans I want to participate.
- Borrible 5y agoBeware what you wish for, you hedonist sinner, Man shall not live by bread alone and hell is other people. So, is there already a comparative literary and/or sociological study of Steinbecks 'Of Mice and Men' and O'Brien's 'Mrs. Frisby and the Rats of NIMH'?
- eitland 5y agoNot very long ago there was a story posted about some boys from a Catholic boarding school in New Zealand(?) who got lost on an island and how it did not turn into Lord of the Flies. I'll try to find the link, but generally I'll advice to take both science and highly praised fiction (as well supposed debunking of science) with a healthy dose of scepticism. Edit - DDG keeps getting better, not monotonically, but still, I found this on my first try: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/may/09/the-real-lord-of-the-flies-what-happened-when-six-boys-were-shipwrecked-for-15-months https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/may/09/the-real-lord-... Edit 2 - and here is the discussion from 4 months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27375076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27375076
- metadata 5y agoThis is the story you mention, I believe... https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2018746636/the-true-story-of-six-tongan-teenage-castaways-in-1965 https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2...
- ravenstine 5y ago6 boys really doesn't constitute a society besides in its minimal definition. I imagine things may have been different with even just 12 of them since group dynamics can change dramatically. Although I do think we overestimate how easily any group of people can devolve into LOTF when not subjected to governance.
- pontifier 5y agoTo me, this sounds more like a problem with lack of genetic diversity. I'd like to see this experiment done again with a larger and more diverse population to start with.
- White_Wolf 5y agoI would also add: on a much higher surface area. Something like 20000sqm to allow the species(mice in this case) to form different groups/tribes
- jgilias 5y agoOn a somewhat related note, I recently got onto a binge reading about Polynesian people and culture. The story of Polynesian colonization of New Zealand is captivating. It starts with the colonization of a new land with abundant resources. It seems that for the first few centuries the Māori ancestors lived in a relative utopia [3]. Then, as climate changed, population increased, and some resources got depleted competition increased. This is when their culture turned into the genocidal [1] [2] warrior culture that Europeans encountered a few centuries later. Interestingly, around the time of the culture shift part of the population split off for some reason and formed a non-violent pacifist community that later got annihilated [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moriori_genocide https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moriori_genocide [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musket_Wars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musket_Wars [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C4%81ori_culture#Archaic_period_c.1300_AD https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C4%81ori_culture#Archaic_per...
- PicassoCTs 5y agoWhat happened to the HackerNews, that bashes 60s Pschology papers as unreproduceable wall isolation material? No Feynman quotes about how psychology lacks in rigor when testing? No quibs? No jabs. Afraid to hurt oneself on all the ex-socialoutcast edgyness? Were are all those google and fb data-miners, who have anonymized access to the largest psychological db on the planet? Why not for once violate those layers of NDA and give humanity some insight into itself? Can't right now? All those social engineering sims occupied with the Palantir accounts? Can't even run that one, that emulates how indoctrinated employees would behave if they were betraying the enlightenment for idealized privatized interests.. Making the world a beta-place, indeed. The truth is, the mouse-utopias end is doctored. Mouse eats mouse, splits into morlock and eloi, and the habitat waves in horror, as hyper-capitalist predators descent on peaceful mice, trying to retreat, the predators eat themselves, the peaceful mice start to rebound, the experiment never ends, the doctors doctor it so it ends. There, we are just part of nature and nature is horrifying and finding horrific balances. The pig fearing the tiger in the forest, does not sing. PS: Sorry to Dang, i shouldn't but a discussion should go somewhere, and these reposts usually don't. They often don't even accumulate interesting anecdata.
- op00to 5y agoReal cute this guy had children that yielded him grandchildren if he was so convinced of an overpopulation hypothesis.