8 ms·

It seems like a bit of an overreaction. Is shipbuilding that important to France?

manacit 5y ago
That's part of it, but it's mostly a larger political play around France and Europe being less dependent on the USA as a partner around the world. France has been pushing on 'strategic autonomy' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_autonomy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_autonomy) for quite some time now, and this played right into their hands as an opportunity of the USA not being reliable. Whether or not it's true, or if this will work, will take a lot more time to figure out.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
elefanten 5y ago
Also genuinely curious. With no judgment, I want to understand the French perspective here. And can anyone weigh in on whether these deals getting scuttled is so rare. Esp for advanced military equipment, I’d think that it’s quite common.
- SiempreViernes 5y ago
  A large part is the behaviour of Australia and the US who just said "Surprise! We're a couple now! Oh, by the way France, I texted you that you've been dumped this morning" And the reason they did it this way is basically because it was domestically convenient for them to have a press release last Wednesday and they didn't want to bother with first cancelling the contract and waiting even a month with announcing the new alliance that at the moment is entirely on paper.
- WastingMyTime89 5y ago
  France is more annoyed that the point wasn't raised during its summit with Australia during the summer nor by the USA during their last meetings. They consider that to be a deep breach of trust between allies and therefore recalled their ambassadors.
conradfr 5y ago
€50B over 50 years, dubbed "the contract of the century".
- chrisseaton 5y ago
  The French were messing up the contract all on their own. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-20/australia-attack-class-submarines-project-costs-delays-criticism/13074440 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-20/australia-attack-clas...
allemagne 5y ago
It's always about domestic politics. Macron doesn't want to look weak in the leadup to the 2022 election, and it's not hard to see why France would be upset here.
- ekabod 5y ago
  When Merkel decided to welcome one million refugees on german soil, it was about domestic politics?
  - markus_zhang 5y ago
    Refugee is essential a business in Germany.
  - allemagne 5y ago
    Not sure what you're trying to poke at here, so I'll just clarify. Basically any diplomatic actions that on their face appear to be overreactions, or intense provocations, are better understood as communicating something to a domestic audience in a context that rewards it. Classic example is "wolf warrior diplomacy", where tweets from Chinese officials can seem to indicate that the PLA is about to deploy tanks when in reality it's just a diplomat trying to look as nationalistic as they can for their bosses' approval. Or when France opposed the Iraq War in 2003, the "Freedom Fries" nonsense in America was really more about the general patriotic hysteria of the moment rather than a sign that there was any enduring hatred for France.
  - Leparamour 5y ago
    > When Merkel decided to welcome one million refugees on german soil, it was about domestic politics? No, that was about personal revenge for the press eviscerating her and calling her the "Ice Queen"[1] after an interview segment was shown on TV in which Merkel can be seen rejecting a refugee girl's teary-eyed plead to bend the asylum law solely for her. [1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CKBa2VvUMAE1Ymv?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CKBa2VvUMAE1Ymv?format=jpg&name=... [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/7/29/a-refugees-hope-young-girl-takes-on-merkel https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/7/29/a-refugees-hope...
skissane 5y ago
It isn’t just that Australia cancelled the deal and made a new one with someone else. It is they kept their plans secret from France instead of letting them know about it and giving them a chance to make a counter-offer or save some face. France has nuclear submarines too, so maybe France could still have played some role? Maybe AUKUS could have been AFUKUS? They didn’t allow France into the negotiation room, and they told France “everything is fine, we are sticking with your submarines” even while secretly negotiating with the US and UK. I think being excluded and lied to upsets Macron far more than the submarines themselves do.
- ericmay 5y ago
  Looks to me like political hardball being played and it’s surprising France (and to a lesser extent the EU). Frankly, France and the EU have been trying to straddle a middle ground between the US and China, and strategically Europe is mostly irrelevant outside of the UK (yes I know France can project some power I’m not downplaying them) but they have been dragging their feet and the action is just not going to be in Europe anymore. Australia (and the UK) are far, far more important to the United States. Europe has been unwilling to throw their cards in with America 100% and America is saying well… ok then we can’t rely on you so we’ll do something else. Look at the repercussions now. France is huffing and puffing and what exactly is going to happen? The Us is still buying French wine and German cars, and the EU is still buying US products and trade is just going to continue on as normal. Who cares? On the other hand, Australia is vital. I don’t think NATO exists in a meaningful way anymore and this is just window dressing around what has already happened. Russia is Europe’s problem. And the US is losing a reason to engage when Europe is seemingly not willing to. Think about it. If you take away the saber rattling why would the US give a shit about Russia? It’s an economic backwater. Europe doesn’t want to pony up and show teeth. What is to be gained? Hell, the US and Russia will probably forge better ties going forward. And yes I’m an American, but I’m just looking at this as I see it geopolitically.
  - SiempreViernes 5y ago
    Actually, France has far more territory in the Pacific than the UK, and better positioned too. The UK is part on the basis of historical ties, not because someone looked at a map and said "hey, that guy controls some important bits". It also seems distressingly naive to say "it's been two days and nothing's happened, so nobody cares" when talking about the EU reaction. The only fast EU action you ever get is the statements, and those have been supportive of France. The interesting thing is to see what happens this spring when France has the EU presidency. Anyway, the big benefit of NATO is to keep Europe and the US aligned; Europe has lived with Russia for a long time before NATO existed and the big trouble in Europe was about keeping whatever nations where large at the time from attacking each other. I don't see the US and Russia getting along much better, precisely because, as you say, Americans don't think they need to respect the Russians very much, a judgment which the Russians don't agree with.
roenxi 5y ago
France has a GDP of ~2,600 billion and the contact was something like 40 billion + potential overruns. Recalling an ambassador over a 1-2% of GDP slight seems pretty proportionate. It is a lot of money.
- le-mark 5y ago
  Agreed, this was huge huge deal for them. Reporting from Washington was Biden admin totally downplayed France objections, I was surprised actually. I think Macron is right to raise a fuss, but nothing will come of it. Europe doesn’t have a defense leg to stand on, that’s the current world order, right or wrong. The other thing that surprises me is the Anglo centric makeup of AUKUS, Oceana anyone?

That's part of it, but it's mostly a larger political play around France and Europe being less dependent on the USA as a partner around the world. France has been pushing on 'strategic autonomy' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_autonomy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_autonomy) for quite some time now, and this played right into their hands as an opportunity of the USA not being reliable. Whether or not it's true, or if this will work, will take a lot more time to figure out.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

elefanten 5y ago

Also genuinely curious. With no judgment, I want to understand the French perspective here. And can anyone weigh in on whether these deals getting scuttled is so rare. Esp for advanced military equipment, I’d think that it’s quite common.

SiempreViernes 5y ago
A large part is the behaviour of Australia and the US who just said "Surprise! We're a couple now! Oh, by the way France, I texted you that you've been dumped this morning" And the reason they did it this way is basically because it was domestically convenient for them to have a press release last Wednesday and they didn't want to bother with first cancelling the contract and waiting even a month with announcing the new alliance that at the moment is entirely on paper.
WastingMyTime89 5y ago
France is more annoyed that the point wasn't raised during its summit with Australia during the summer nor by the USA during their last meetings. They consider that to be a deep breach of trust between allies and therefore recalled their ambassadors.

conradfr 5y ago

€50B over 50 years, dubbed "the contract of the century".

chrisseaton 5y ago
The French were messing up the contract all on their own. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-20/australia-attack-class-submarines-project-costs-delays-criticism/13074440 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-20/australia-attack-clas...

allemagne 5y ago

It's always about domestic politics. Macron doesn't want to look weak in the leadup to the 2022 election, and it's not hard to see why France would be upset here.

ekabod 5y ago
When Merkel decided to welcome one million refugees on german soil, it was about domestic politics?
- markus_zhang 5y ago
  Refugee is essential a business in Germany.
- allemagne 5y ago
  Not sure what you're trying to poke at here, so I'll just clarify. Basically any diplomatic actions that on their face appear to be overreactions, or intense provocations, are better understood as communicating something to a domestic audience in a context that rewards it. Classic example is "wolf warrior diplomacy", where tweets from Chinese officials can seem to indicate that the PLA is about to deploy tanks when in reality it's just a diplomat trying to look as nationalistic as they can for their bosses' approval. Or when France opposed the Iraq War in 2003, the "Freedom Fries" nonsense in America was really more about the general patriotic hysteria of the moment rather than a sign that there was any enduring hatred for France.
- Leparamour 5y ago
  > When Merkel decided to welcome one million refugees on german soil, it was about domestic politics? No, that was about personal revenge for the press eviscerating her and calling her the "Ice Queen"[1] after an interview segment was shown on TV in which Merkel can be seen rejecting a refugee girl's teary-eyed plead to bend the asylum law solely for her. [1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CKBa2VvUMAE1Ymv?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CKBa2VvUMAE1Ymv?format=jpg&name=... [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/7/29/a-refugees-hope-young-girl-takes-on-merkel https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/7/29/a-refugees-hope...

skissane 5y ago

It isn’t just that Australia cancelled the deal and made a new one with someone else. It is they kept their plans secret from France instead of letting them know about it and giving them a chance to make a counter-offer or save some face. France has nuclear submarines too, so maybe France could still have played some role? Maybe AUKUS could have been AFUKUS? They didn’t allow France into the negotiation room, and they told France “everything is fine, we are sticking with your submarines” even while secretly negotiating with the US and UK. I think being excluded and lied to upsets Macron far more than the submarines themselves do.

ericmay 5y ago
Looks to me like political hardball being played and it’s surprising France (and to a lesser extent the EU). Frankly, France and the EU have been trying to straddle a middle ground between the US and China, and strategically Europe is mostly irrelevant outside of the UK (yes I know France can project some power I’m not downplaying them) but they have been dragging their feet and the action is just not going to be in Europe anymore. Australia (and the UK) are far, far more important to the United States. Europe has been unwilling to throw their cards in with America 100% and America is saying well… ok then we can’t rely on you so we’ll do something else. Look at the repercussions now. France is huffing and puffing and what exactly is going to happen? The Us is still buying French wine and German cars, and the EU is still buying US products and trade is just going to continue on as normal. Who cares? On the other hand, Australia is vital. I don’t think NATO exists in a meaningful way anymore and this is just window dressing around what has already happened. Russia is Europe’s problem. And the US is losing a reason to engage when Europe is seemingly not willing to. Think about it. If you take away the saber rattling why would the US give a shit about Russia? It’s an economic backwater. Europe doesn’t want to pony up and show teeth. What is to be gained? Hell, the US and Russia will probably forge better ties going forward. And yes I’m an American, but I’m just looking at this as I see it geopolitically.
- SiempreViernes 5y ago
  Actually, France has far more territory in the Pacific than the UK, and better positioned too. The UK is part on the basis of historical ties, not because someone looked at a map and said "hey, that guy controls some important bits". It also seems distressingly naive to say "it's been two days and nothing's happened, so nobody cares" when talking about the EU reaction. The only fast EU action you ever get is the statements, and those have been supportive of France. The interesting thing is to see what happens this spring when France has the EU presidency. Anyway, the big benefit of NATO is to keep Europe and the US aligned; Europe has lived with Russia for a long time before NATO existed and the big trouble in Europe was about keeping whatever nations where large at the time from attacking each other. I don't see the US and Russia getting along much better, precisely because, as you say, Americans don't think they need to respect the Russians very much, a judgment which the Russians don't agree with.

roenxi 5y ago

France has a GDP of ~2,600 billion and the contact was something like 40 billion + potential overruns. Recalling an ambassador over a 1-2% of GDP slight seems pretty proportionate. It is a lot of money.

le-mark 5y ago
Agreed, this was huge huge deal for them. Reporting from Washington was Biden admin totally downplayed France objections, I was surprised actually. I think Macron is right to raise a fuss, but nothing will come of it. Europe doesn’t have a defense leg to stand on, that’s the current world order, right or wrong. The other thing that surprises me is the Anglo centric makeup of AUKUS, Oceana anyone?