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> Presumably this has already occurred. COVID daily death rates in the US are on track to meet or exceed the previous all time high. It is undeniable at this po

> Presumably this has already occurred. COVID daily death rates in the US are on track to meet or exceed the previous all time high. It is undeniable at this point that the vaccine effectively eliminates the possibility of death from COVID-19, so there are presumably still many Americans without protective immunity. It’s a bit tough to follow the logic of this comment. If we have more vaccinated than ever, but there are more cases and deaths than ever, how does it therefore follow that it is “undeniable” that the vaccines are doing exactly what we want? Maybe and perhaps that can be partially explained through mutations, but with more than half the population fully vaccinated by now, you’d think that infection rates would be declining, not increasing. It’s very easy to see how vaccine skeptics would continue to think that everything doesn’t fully add up here. PS: What tests did your friends use to differentiate between alpha and delta infection?

Rebelgecko 5y ago
>If we have more vaccinated than ever, but there are more cases and deaths than ever, how does it therefore follow that it is “undeniable” that the vaccines are doing exactly what we want? In my area, most people are vaccinated. If the vaccine wasn't very effective, you'd expect that most people dying of COVID would be vaccinated. In reality, something like 98% of deaths are among the unvaccinated
- Izkata 5y ago
  That stat comes from a report that came out in May, using data from before that point. Y'know, back when percent vaccinated was still pretty low... I vaguely recall seeing it had dropped to 95% a month or two ago, but that was still counting from the beginning of the year and not weighting by percent vaccinated.
  - Rebelgecko 5y ago
    I don't know what report you're referring to, I'm looking at the daily stats released today for my county. Since September 1, there have been 435 COVID deaths. 70% of people in my county are vaccinated, so you'd expect that if vaccines were useless then 304 of those deaths would be amongst fully vaccinated people. But the real number is actually 81. However the 81 includes anyone who died with an active COVID infection, so I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was much lower. But assuming that 81 is it, it looks like the effect is more like a ~75% reduction in death odds
    - Izkata 5y ago
      That fits more with numbers I've seen from several countries (UK, Israel, and I think Germany). I was referring to the US in my last comment, it's the only one I'd seen so far that was so skewed to >95%.
jasonlaramburu 5y ago
Sorry, if you won’t concede that the vaccines save lives then it is not possible to have a further discussion in good faith. They didn’t get a test but they got symptomatic covid at the height of both waves.
- logicalmonster 5y ago
  I try and use my words very precisely, so I will state this. As far as I can tell, the data shows that the Covid vaccines, on an individual level, do seem to dramatically minimize symptoms. As far as science can tell, the vaccines usually turn a severe Covid outcome (which is still very rare if you're not geriatric, fat, or otherwise unhealthy) into something far less severe. We're basically in agreement with that, right? Let's stop there for a second and analyze the current social situation up to here. At least 50% of people in the US are fully vaccinated. And more people have at least 1 injection and at least some protection from symptoms. And many more have natural immunity from past cases too. If the vaccines were having the exact social effect we expected, it would be reasonable to assume that cases and deaths would be falling in light of increased vaccination. Cases and deaths are not falling though, right? So what gives? Something doesn't add up with the vaccines' overall impact. If there's a reasonable theory why this is, please explain. This isn't just an issue with stubborn Americans. I believe that no democracy has been more aggressive about vaccinations than Israel, and they're having significant problems right now too. If the vaccines will work on a societal level as intended, what gives? There's more than one theory here, but I'd suggest that the properties of the vaccines (minimizing symptoms) makes it so that vaccinated people don't quickly realize that they're sick and go about their business normally and some can act as unwitting super-spreaders. This wouldn't happen as readily with unvaccinated people who feel that they're sick and would be more likely to stay at home. Ironically, the mass vaccinations may be driving the spread. Another scarier theory is that these leaky vaccines are creating a Marek's Disease type of situation in humans where the vaccinated are creating the mutations that are killing the unvaccinated. Another possibility is of course that mutations are being driven by the unvaccinated. (it's a possibility worth mentioning, but I'd discount it as unlikely given how viruses tend to mutate towards being less lethal in order to spread more) Am I trying to have a discussion in good faith or not? I think I am and am bringing up some reasonable points. Just my $0.02.

Rebelgecko 5y ago

>If we have more vaccinated than ever, but there are more cases and deaths than ever, how does it therefore follow that it is “undeniable” that the vaccines are doing exactly what we want? In my area, most people are vaccinated. If the vaccine wasn't very effective, you'd expect that most people dying of COVID would be vaccinated. In reality, something like 98% of deaths are among the unvaccinated

Izkata 5y ago
That stat comes from a report that came out in May, using data from before that point. Y'know, back when percent vaccinated was still pretty low... I vaguely recall seeing it had dropped to 95% a month or two ago, but that was still counting from the beginning of the year and not weighting by percent vaccinated.
- Rebelgecko 5y ago
  I don't know what report you're referring to, I'm looking at the daily stats released today for my county. Since September 1, there have been 435 COVID deaths. 70% of people in my county are vaccinated, so you'd expect that if vaccines were useless then 304 of those deaths would be amongst fully vaccinated people. But the real number is actually 81. However the 81 includes anyone who died with an active COVID infection, so I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was much lower. But assuming that 81 is it, it looks like the effect is more like a ~75% reduction in death odds
  - Izkata 5y ago
    That fits more with numbers I've seen from several countries (UK, Israel, and I think Germany). I was referring to the US in my last comment, it's the only one I'd seen so far that was so skewed to >95%.

jasonlaramburu 5y ago

Sorry, if you won’t concede that the vaccines save lives then it is not possible to have a further discussion in good faith. They didn’t get a test but they got symptomatic covid at the height of both waves.

logicalmonster 5y ago
I try and use my words very precisely, so I will state this. As far as I can tell, the data shows that the Covid vaccines, on an individual level, do seem to dramatically minimize symptoms. As far as science can tell, the vaccines usually turn a severe Covid outcome (which is still very rare if you're not geriatric, fat, or otherwise unhealthy) into something far less severe. We're basically in agreement with that, right? Let's stop there for a second and analyze the current social situation up to here. At least 50% of people in the US are fully vaccinated. And more people have at least 1 injection and at least some protection from symptoms. And many more have natural immunity from past cases too. If the vaccines were having the exact social effect we expected, it would be reasonable to assume that cases and deaths would be falling in light of increased vaccination. Cases and deaths are not falling though, right? So what gives? Something doesn't add up with the vaccines' overall impact. If there's a reasonable theory why this is, please explain. This isn't just an issue with stubborn Americans. I believe that no democracy has been more aggressive about vaccinations than Israel, and they're having significant problems right now too. If the vaccines will work on a societal level as intended, what gives? There's more than one theory here, but I'd suggest that the properties of the vaccines (minimizing symptoms) makes it so that vaccinated people don't quickly realize that they're sick and go about their business normally and some can act as unwitting super-spreaders. This wouldn't happen as readily with unvaccinated people who feel that they're sick and would be more likely to stay at home. Ironically, the mass vaccinations may be driving the spread. Another scarier theory is that these leaky vaccines are creating a Marek's Disease type of situation in humans where the vaccinated are creating the mutations that are killing the unvaccinated. Another possibility is of course that mutations are being driven by the unvaccinated. (it's a possibility worth mentioning, but I'd discount it as unlikely given how viruses tend to mutate towards being less lethal in order to spread more) Am I trying to have a discussion in good faith or not? I think I am and am bringing up some reasonable points. Just my $0.02.