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Looking at the post you quoted again, in paragraph 2 it says it did include expectation of a volcanic eruption: > Scenario B and C had an ‘El Chichon’ sized vo
by Uhhrrr 5y ago
Looking at the post you quoted again, in paragraph 2 it says it did include expectation of a volcanic eruption:
> Scenario B and C had an ‘El Chichon’ sized volcanic eruption in 1995.
EDIT: Looking at the graph once again, he predicted in scenario B that we would see more than .6 deg C of warming between 2000 and 2020.
But it appears that we've only had about .3 deg C of warming in the past 20 years: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-ocean-surface-temperature-data-hadcrut5 https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-o...
- jbay808 5y agoYour objection was that his prediction was "often below". You can see that a big part of this is 1991-1995, as his volcano guess was a few years late. This chart is to the same scale as in the realclimate link. As of 2020, we're about 0.1 to 0.2 degrees below the Scenario B forecast, at +1 instead of ~+1.15. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/ https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/ What do you think a good 1988 model prediction would look like?
- Uhhrrr 5y agoYour new chart overlays all ten years for each decade over each other with the same color. This is great for obscuring, but not much else. Is there a reason you don't like the more legible chart I posted? Looking again at your original link, Hansen's scenario B predicts a ~1.45 deg increase from 1988. So, in answer to your question, not that.
- jbay808 5y agoIf you scroll down just a bit you'll see this one. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.png https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Glob... And, where do you see 1.45 C forecast for 2020 outside of Scenario A? Scenario B doesn't even come close to the 1.25 indicator line.
- Uhhrrr 5y agoThe realclimate.org graph (https://www.realclimate.org/images/Hansen88_forc.jpg https://www.realclimate.org/images/Hansen88_forc.jpg) shows B as off the chart by 2020, but 1988 is around .2 and 2015 is around 1.45. Extending another 5 years, should be about 1.45 deg C difference by 2020. The NASA chart shows a rise of about .7 during that time.