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Something I do not understand: there are keys difference between automation in e.g. aircraft, and what Tesla at al are failing at, e.g., how constrained the e

Something I do not understand: there are keys difference between automation in e.g. aircraft, and what Tesla at al are failing at, e.g., how constrained the environment is; and what the exposure is to anomalous conditions is; and what the opportunity window usually is to turn control back over to a human. The thing I don't understand is, we have a much more comparable environment in ground travel: federal highways. Innumerable regressions and bugs and lapses aside, I do not understand why so much effort is being wasted on a problem which IMO obviously requires AGI to reach a threshold of safety we are collectively liable to consider reasonable; when we could be putting the same effort into the (also IMO) much more valuable and impactful case of optimizing automated traffic flow in highway travel. Not only is the problem domain much more constrained, there is a single regulatory body, which could e.g. support and mandate coordination and federated and data sharing/emergent networking, to promote collective behavior to optimize flow in ways that humans limited-information self-interested human drivers cannot. The benefits are legion. And, I would pay 10x as much to be able to cede control at the start of a 3-hour trip to LA, than to be able to get to work each morning. Though for a lot of Americans, that also is highway travel. Not just this, why not start with the low-hanging case of highway travel, and work out from there onto low-density high-speed multi-lane well-maintained roads? Yes that means Tesla techs who live in Dublin don't get it first. Oh well... IMO there will never be true, safe FSD in areas like my city (SF) absent something more more comparable to AGI. The problem is literally too hard and the last-20% is not amenable to brute forcing with semantically vacuous ML. I just don't get it. Unless we take Occam's razor, and assume it's just grift and snake oil to drive valuation and investment. Maybe the quiet part and reason for engineering musical chairs is just what you'd think, everyone knows this is not happening; but shhhh the VC.

liber8 5y ago
I'm on my third Tesla. FSD on highways has improved so much in the last 6 years. On my first Tesla, autopilot would regularly try to kill you by running you into a gore point or median (literally once per trip on my usual commute). I now can't even remember the last time I had an issue on the highway. Anywhere else is basically a parlor trick. Yes, it sorta works, a lot of the time, but you have to monitor it so closely that it isn't really beneficial. As you point out, its going to take some serious advances (which in all likelihood are 30+ years away) for FSD to reliably work in city centers. I think the issue you've highlighted is one of governance. There's only so much Tesla can do regarding highways. You really need the government to step in to mandate coordination of the type I think you're envisioning. And the government is pretty much guaranteed to fuck it up and adopt some dumb standard that kills all innovation after about 6 months, so it never actually becomes usable. I think automakers will eventually figure this out themselves. As you say, there are too many benefits for this not to happen organically. Once vehicles can talk to each other, everything will change.
- ChuckNorris89 5y ago
  >On my first Tesla, autopilot would regularly try to kill you by running you into a gore point or median (literally once per trip on my usual commute) And people paid money for this privilege?
  - liber8 5y ago
    To be fair, it still felt like magic. My car would drive me 20 miles without me really having to do anything, other than make sure it didn't kill me at an interchange. And I'm now trying to remember, but I think autopilot was initially free (or at least was included with every car I looked at, so it didn't seem like an extra fee). Auotpilot is now standard on all Teslas, but FSD is an extra $10k, which IMO is a joke.
    - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
      I bet it felt magic, but if my car would actively try to kill me, it would go back to the dealer ASAP. I'm not paying with money and my life to be a corporation's guinea pig.
    - kaba0 5y ago
      Humans are ridiculously bad at overseeing something that mostly works. That’s why it is insanely more dangerous. Also, the problem is “easy” for the general case, but the edge cases are almost singularity-requiring. The former is robot vacuum level, the latter is out of our reach for now.
- aaroninsf 5y ago
  Part of what I don't get so to speak, is why there we haven't seen the feds stepping in via the transportation agency to develop and regulate exactly this, with appropriate attention paid to commercial, personal, and emergency vehicle travel. The opportunities there appear boundless and the mechanisms for stimulating development equally so... I really don't get it. Then I think about DiFi and I kind of do.
ghaff 5y ago
>Unless we take Occam's razor, and assume it's just grift and snake oil to drive valuation and investment. I think there's some of that. Some overconfidence because of the advances that have been made. General techno-optimism. And certainly a degree of their jobs depending on a belief. I know there is a crowd of mostly young urbanites who don't want to own a car and want to be driven around. But I agree. Driving to the grocery store is not a big deal for me. Driving for hours on a highway is a pain. I would totally shell out $10K or more for a full self-driving system even if it only worked on interstates in decent weather.
nemothekid 5y ago
Highway self driving has been around for decades[1] - and Tesla's general release autopilot can already do all that. As I understand it from ramp on to ramp off, in production vehicles, Tesla can provide an automated experience. I'm not sure how much "better" it can get. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMl97OsH1FQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMl97OsH1FQ
- null_shift 5y ago
  better would be that i can legally go to sleep and let the car drive the highway portion of my trip. then i wake up and complete the final leg of the trip. as you say, i don’t think this is entirely out of reach (even if it required specialized highway infrastructure or car to car communication). seems like lower hanging fruit than trying to get full self driving working on local/city roads. i would pay a ton for the highway only capability…
- dev_tty01 5y ago
  >Highway self driving has been around for decades[1] Driver assisted highway has been around for years... Level 5 driving requires no human attention. Huge difference. I think what is wanted by many is level 5 on the highways. I want to sleep, watch a movie, whatever. That is much, much "better" than what we have now. Like many others, I would be most interested in full level 5 on highways and me driving in the city. That is also much easier to implement and test. The scope of the problem is greatly reduced. I think Tesla and others are wasting tremendous resources trying to get the in-city stuff working. It makes cool videos, but being able to do other activities during a 5 hour highway drive has much more value (to me at least) than riding inside a high risk video game on the way to work. (edit) I get that I am misusing the definition of "level 5" a bit, but I think my meaning is clear. Rated for no human attention for the long highway portion of a trip.
kempbellt 5y ago
Even lower-level automation for highway driving would be super useful. I would appreciate a simple "keep-distance-wrt-speed" function for bumper-to-bumper situations. Where worst case scenario, you rear-end a car at relatively low speeds. I'd happily keep control over steering in this situation and just keep my foot over the brake, though lane-keep assist would probably be handy here as well. A couple radar sensors/cameras/or lidar sensors would probably be enough for basic functionality. Disable if the steering-wheel is turned more than X degrees - maybe 20 or 25?. Disable if speed goes over X speed - maybe 15mph? Most cruise controls require a minimum speed (like 25mph) to activate. Trying to do full driving automation, especially in a city like Seattle, is like diving into the ocean to learn how to swim. As cool as that sounds, I'd trust incremental automation advancements much more.
- liber8 5y ago
  I would appreciate a simple "keep-distance-wrt-speed" function for bumper-to-bumper situations. This has been widespread for at least a decade. I'm not even aware of a mainstream auto brand that doesn't offer adaptive cruise control at this point. Every one I've used works in stop and go traffic. The other features you want are exactly what Tesla has basically perfected in their autopilot system, and work almost exactly as you describe (not the FSD, just the standard autopilot).
  - kempbellt 5y ago
    > This has been widespread for at least a decade. I can't say that my experience agrees with this. Maybe some higher-end vehicles had it a decade ago, but it seems to be getting more popular over the past 5 years or so. I still don't see it offered on lower priced vehicles where basic cruise functionality is there, but I doubt ever will be a part of "entry level" considering the tech required. None of the vehicles my family owns have a "stop-and-go" cruise control function - all newer than 10 years. ACC at higher speeds is available on one, but it will not auto-resume if the vehicle stops.
- sleepybrett 5y ago
  In this same vein cars with automated parallel/back-in-angle parking. I think an even more 'sensor fusion' approach needs to be adopted. I think the roads need to be 'smart' or at least 'vocal'. Markers of some kind placed in the roadway to hint cars about things like speed limit, lane edge, etc. Anything that would be put on a sign that matters should be broadcast by the road locally. Combine that with cameras/lidar/whatever for distance keeping and transient obstacle detection. Then network all the cars cooperatively to minimize further the impacts of things like traffic jams or accident re-routing. Perfect zipper merges around debris in the roadway. Once a road is fully outfitted with the marker system, then and only then would I be comfortable with a 'full autopilot' style system. Start with the freeway/highway system, get the logistics industry on board with special lanes dedicated to them and it becomes essentially a train where any given car can just detach itself to make it's drop off.

liber8 5y ago

I'm on my third Tesla. FSD on highways has improved so much in the last 6 years. On my first Tesla, autopilot would regularly try to kill you by running you into a gore point or median (literally once per trip on my usual commute). I now can't even remember the last time I had an issue on the highway. Anywhere else is basically a parlor trick. Yes, it sorta works, a lot of the time, but you have to monitor it so closely that it isn't really beneficial. As you point out, its going to take some serious advances (which in all likelihood are 30+ years away) for FSD to reliably work in city centers. I think the issue you've highlighted is one of governance. There's only so much Tesla can do regarding highways. You really need the government to step in to mandate coordination of the type I think you're envisioning. And the government is pretty much guaranteed to fuck it up and adopt some dumb standard that kills all innovation after about 6 months, so it never actually becomes usable. I think automakers will eventually figure this out themselves. As you say, there are too many benefits for this not to happen organically. Once vehicles can talk to each other, everything will change.

ChuckNorris89 5y ago
>On my first Tesla, autopilot would regularly try to kill you by running you into a gore point or median (literally once per trip on my usual commute) And people paid money for this privilege?
- liber8 5y ago
  To be fair, it still felt like magic. My car would drive me 20 miles without me really having to do anything, other than make sure it didn't kill me at an interchange. And I'm now trying to remember, but I think autopilot was initially free (or at least was included with every car I looked at, so it didn't seem like an extra fee). Auotpilot is now standard on all Teslas, but FSD is an extra $10k, which IMO is a joke.
  - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
    I bet it felt magic, but if my car would actively try to kill me, it would go back to the dealer ASAP. I'm not paying with money and my life to be a corporation's guinea pig.
  - kaba0 5y ago
    Humans are ridiculously bad at overseeing something that mostly works. That’s why it is insanely more dangerous. Also, the problem is “easy” for the general case, but the edge cases are almost singularity-requiring. The former is robot vacuum level, the latter is out of our reach for now.
aaroninsf 5y ago
Part of what I don't get so to speak, is why there we haven't seen the feds stepping in via the transportation agency to develop and regulate exactly this, with appropriate attention paid to commercial, personal, and emergency vehicle travel. The opportunities there appear boundless and the mechanisms for stimulating development equally so... I really don't get it. Then I think about DiFi and I kind of do.

ghaff 5y ago

>Unless we take Occam's razor, and assume it's just grift and snake oil to drive valuation and investment. I think there's some of that. Some overconfidence because of the advances that have been made. General techno-optimism. And certainly a degree of their jobs depending on a belief. I know there is a crowd of mostly young urbanites who don't want to own a car and want to be driven around. But I agree. Driving to the grocery store is not a big deal for me. Driving for hours on a highway is a pain. I would totally shell out $10K or more for a full self-driving system even if it only worked on interstates in decent weather.

nemothekid 5y ago

Highway self driving has been around for decades[1] - and Tesla's general release autopilot can already do all that. As I understand it from ramp on to ramp off, in production vehicles, Tesla can provide an automated experience. I'm not sure how much "better" it can get. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMl97OsH1FQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMl97OsH1FQ

null_shift 5y ago
better would be that i can legally go to sleep and let the car drive the highway portion of my trip. then i wake up and complete the final leg of the trip. as you say, i don’t think this is entirely out of reach (even if it required specialized highway infrastructure or car to car communication). seems like lower hanging fruit than trying to get full self driving working on local/city roads. i would pay a ton for the highway only capability…
dev_tty01 5y ago
>Highway self driving has been around for decades[1] Driver assisted highway has been around for years... Level 5 driving requires no human attention. Huge difference. I think what is wanted by many is level 5 on the highways. I want to sleep, watch a movie, whatever. That is much, much "better" than what we have now. Like many others, I would be most interested in full level 5 on highways and me driving in the city. That is also much easier to implement and test. The scope of the problem is greatly reduced. I think Tesla and others are wasting tremendous resources trying to get the in-city stuff working. It makes cool videos, but being able to do other activities during a 5 hour highway drive has much more value (to me at least) than riding inside a high risk video game on the way to work. (edit) I get that I am misusing the definition of "level 5" a bit, but I think my meaning is clear. Rated for no human attention for the long highway portion of a trip.

kempbellt 5y ago

Even lower-level automation for highway driving would be super useful. I would appreciate a simple "keep-distance-wrt-speed" function for bumper-to-bumper situations. Where worst case scenario, you rear-end a car at relatively low speeds. I'd happily keep control over steering in this situation and just keep my foot over the brake, though lane-keep assist would probably be handy here as well. A couple radar sensors/cameras/or lidar sensors would probably be enough for basic functionality. Disable if the steering-wheel is turned more than X degrees - maybe 20 or 25?. Disable if speed goes over X speed - maybe 15mph? Most cruise controls require a minimum speed (like 25mph) to activate. Trying to do full driving automation, especially in a city like Seattle, is like diving into the ocean to learn how to swim. As cool as that sounds, I'd trust incremental automation advancements much more.

liber8 5y ago
I would appreciate a simple "keep-distance-wrt-speed" function for bumper-to-bumper situations. This has been widespread for at least a decade. I'm not even aware of a mainstream auto brand that doesn't offer adaptive cruise control at this point. Every one I've used works in stop and go traffic. The other features you want are exactly what Tesla has basically perfected in their autopilot system, and work almost exactly as you describe (not the FSD, just the standard autopilot).
- kempbellt 5y ago
  > This has been widespread for at least a decade. I can't say that my experience agrees with this. Maybe some higher-end vehicles had it a decade ago, but it seems to be getting more popular over the past 5 years or so. I still don't see it offered on lower priced vehicles where basic cruise functionality is there, but I doubt ever will be a part of "entry level" considering the tech required. None of the vehicles my family owns have a "stop-and-go" cruise control function - all newer than 10 years. ACC at higher speeds is available on one, but it will not auto-resume if the vehicle stops.
sleepybrett 5y ago
In this same vein cars with automated parallel/back-in-angle parking. I think an even more 'sensor fusion' approach needs to be adopted. I think the roads need to be 'smart' or at least 'vocal'. Markers of some kind placed in the roadway to hint cars about things like speed limit, lane edge, etc. Anything that would be put on a sign that matters should be broadcast by the road locally. Combine that with cameras/lidar/whatever for distance keeping and transient obstacle detection. Then network all the cars cooperatively to minimize further the impacts of things like traffic jams or accident re-routing. Perfect zipper merges around debris in the roadway. Once a road is fully outfitted with the marker system, then and only then would I be comfortable with a 'full autopilot' style system. Start with the freeway/highway system, get the logistics industry on board with special lanes dedicated to them and it becomes essentially a train where any given car can just detach itself to make it's drop off.