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I'm actually astonished people still believe "fast and strict" lockdowns work, or that they actually happened anywhere. Edit because rate limiting: In any "lo

I'm actually astonished people still believe "fast and strict" lockdowns work, or that they actually happened anywhere. Edit because rate limiting: In any "lockdown" situation, a large percentage of the population must, by definition, exist in the world to enforce the lockdown, deliver food, keep critical services running, tend to the sick, etc. The desirability and feasibility of a "fast and strict" lockdown is a fantasy of the laptop class and/or authoritarian propaganda. Closing borders before there is community spread, a la Australia and NZ, is a separate issue. Those were not "fast". The borders to those countries have been closed since early 2020. In the case of Australia, their citizens cannot even leave without a special permit that is almost never approved. There is currently no end in sight to their "fast and strict" lockdown. In fact, they have increased restrictions in the last several months in an attempt to prevent interstate spread within the country.

belltaco 5y ago
Explain Australia and New Zealand.
- Mandatum 5y ago
  Australia has an outbreak right now. New Zealand is currently around the 10-20/day cases mark contained to their largest city which remains in hard lockdown. The rest of the country has eased restrictions. The delta variant has proven very difficult, the state of Victoria in Australia which really pushed the lockdown strtategy has given up. They're now pushing for vaccination in hopes of easing restrictions further. They remain in lockdown as a larger outbreak would overwhelm the healthcare system. Similar case for New Zealand - they have a capacity of less than 250 ICU beds for COVID for 5 million people. The risks are much, much worse if the outbreak spreads.
  - LAC-Tech 5y ago
    > Similar case for New Zealand - they have a capacity of less than 250 ICU beds for COVID for 5 million people. The risks are much, much worse if the outbreak spreads. NZ has had sustained mass immigration for years, and the population grows incredibly fast. All the infrastructure is designed for a country with 80% of the population level we have now, and I don't see it getting better.
sellyme 5y ago
> I'm actually astonished people still believe "fast and strict" lockdowns work, or that they actually happened anywhere. I live in Adelaide, a city of over a million people that has done two strict lockdowns (at 17 and 6 cases respectively), and neither of them lasted more than a week. Both of them completely eradicated the virus from the state, and we've had 0 COVID-related deaths in over a year. Looking at the absolute disasters happening everywhere else that doesn't react as quickly (even just over in Sydney) shows exactly how well those have worked. > Closing borders before there is community spread, a la Australia and NZ, is a separate issue. For the record, we actually didn't do this - borders we only unilaterally closed after community spread had occurred. It was only after eradicating the virus from the community in early 2020 that it became a primary line of defence against further spread. > Those were not "fast". The borders to those countries have been closed since early 2020. By "fast" I meant reacting quickly, not that the lockdown was over quickly. However usually those are the same thing - it's a hell of a lot easier to eradicate the virus when you start at 10 cases instead of 10,000. Conflating closed international borders with a lockdown is somewhat confusing. Australia and New Zealand closing their borders to countries that couldn't successfully restrict COVID spread has had virtually no impact on anyone's day-to-day life. > There is currently no end in sight to their "fast and strict" lockdown. Only 2 Australian states are currently locked down (Victoria and New South Wales), and describing NSW's as "fast" or "strict" would be downright laughable.
- vikingerik 5y ago
  What is the exit strategy going forward for Adelaide or NZ? Is there any, or are you going to keep the borders closed or quarantine every incoming traveler forever throughout the rest of human society? When does this end? "Until Covid goes away" isn't an answer if Covid never goes away.
  - sellyme 5y ago
    > What is the exit strategy going forward for Adelaide or NZ? Right now the magic number for Australia is getting 80% of the population vaccinated, at which point the current COVID-zero approach will be abandoned. I believe New Zealand has a similar approach, although I'm not sure on the exact number they're targeting.

belltaco 5y ago

Explain Australia and New Zealand.

Mandatum 5y ago
Australia has an outbreak right now. New Zealand is currently around the 10-20/day cases mark contained to their largest city which remains in hard lockdown. The rest of the country has eased restrictions. The delta variant has proven very difficult, the state of Victoria in Australia which really pushed the lockdown strtategy has given up. They're now pushing for vaccination in hopes of easing restrictions further. They remain in lockdown as a larger outbreak would overwhelm the healthcare system. Similar case for New Zealand - they have a capacity of less than 250 ICU beds for COVID for 5 million people. The risks are much, much worse if the outbreak spreads.
- LAC-Tech 5y ago
  > Similar case for New Zealand - they have a capacity of less than 250 ICU beds for COVID for 5 million people. The risks are much, much worse if the outbreak spreads. NZ has had sustained mass immigration for years, and the population grows incredibly fast. All the infrastructure is designed for a country with 80% of the population level we have now, and I don't see it getting better.

sellyme 5y ago

> I'm actually astonished people still believe "fast and strict" lockdowns work, or that they actually happened anywhere. I live in Adelaide, a city of over a million people that has done two strict lockdowns (at 17 and 6 cases respectively), and neither of them lasted more than a week. Both of them completely eradicated the virus from the state, and we've had 0 COVID-related deaths in over a year. Looking at the absolute disasters happening everywhere else that doesn't react as quickly (even just over in Sydney) shows exactly how well those have worked. > Closing borders before there is community spread, a la Australia and NZ, is a separate issue. For the record, we actually didn't do this - borders we only unilaterally closed after community spread had occurred. It was only after eradicating the virus from the community in early 2020 that it became a primary line of defence against further spread. > Those were not "fast". The borders to those countries have been closed since early 2020. By "fast" I meant reacting quickly, not that the lockdown was over quickly. However usually those are the same thing - it's a hell of a lot easier to eradicate the virus when you start at 10 cases instead of 10,000. Conflating closed international borders with a lockdown is somewhat confusing. Australia and New Zealand closing their borders to countries that couldn't successfully restrict COVID spread has had virtually no impact on anyone's day-to-day life. > There is currently no end in sight to their "fast and strict" lockdown. Only 2 Australian states are currently locked down (Victoria and New South Wales), and describing NSW's as "fast" or "strict" would be downright laughable.

vikingerik 5y ago
What is the exit strategy going forward for Adelaide or NZ? Is there any, or are you going to keep the borders closed or quarantine every incoming traveler forever throughout the rest of human society? When does this end? "Until Covid goes away" isn't an answer if Covid never goes away.
- sellyme 5y ago
  > What is the exit strategy going forward for Adelaide or NZ? Right now the magic number for Australia is getting 80% of the population vaccinated, at which point the current COVID-zero approach will be abandoned. I believe New Zealand has a similar approach, although I'm not sure on the exact number they're targeting.