6 ms·

Interesting to think about what other sort of supposedly environmentally-motivated campaigning that's happening will actually end up with a net negative effect

Interesting to think about what other sort of supposedly environmentally-motivated campaigning that's happening will actually end up with a net negative effect on the environment.

phreeza 5y ago
It's impossible to know the counterfactual, because having a set date for leaving nuclear has also been a forcing function for ramping up renewables. So it's entirely possible that coal would have made up as much or more of the energy consumed in the hypothetical 2021 with nuclear plants still active. Of course there could have been an even more radical counterfactual where Germany decided to get out of coal by doubling down on nuclear but that hasn't been a political possibility in Germany for many years.
- chelical 5y ago
  The counterfactual is right next door. France has half the emissions per capita of Germany since it primarily relies on nuclear power.
  - phreeza 5y ago
    French reactors are also almost all older than 30 years, and it is thought that constructing new reactors would be extremely expensive, as most megaprojects tend to be these days, so I don't think it is a fair counterfactual. Smaller renewable and natural gas plants don't seem to suffer from cost disease so much.
  - ZeroGravitas 5y ago
    Interestingly, after a quick look at some stats, it's not totally obvious why Germany has higher emissions per capita. Your theory that it's France's extensive nuclear use seems unlikely though since Spain, UK, Portugal, Italy etc. all seem to be roughly on par. My initial guess is that burning coal, or worse lignite or worse peat, seems to be the decisive factor, though high industry usage also plays a part. If you just compare carbon intensity per KWh produced, then France has a notable lead, 6 times less than Germany, so I wonder what brings them back down into the pack. Is some of that electricity being wasted or used inefficiently?
secondaryacct 5y ago
It's a religion in Germany. Im French, so biased pro-nuclear. God just talking to a German abt nuclear power not being only about Fukushima and Tchernobyl puts them in a state of existensial anger you rarely see in these otherwise rational people :D
- pestatije 5y ago
  So your saying french nukes are definitely, positively, hundred percent, absolutely sure, bet yr granma's health, better than jap ones.
  - nix23 5y ago
    You cannot generate power with a nuke, just grilling a sausage (at the right distance), and japan never had nukes, so yes french nukes are more nuk'y then "jap" ones.
- nix23 5y ago
  And stop unlimited speed on highways is also a good way to make them angry....oh and telling them that belgium has the better beer (which is true btw).
  - foepys 5y ago
    Germans talk all high and mighty when it comes to US gun culture. But mention putting a speed limit on the Autobahn like every single other neighbor of Germany already has and they treat you like you just killed their children.
    - nautilius 5y ago
      Autobahns are safe, safer than speed restricted U.S. highways, and certainly much safer than guns being readily available. No kid ever accidentally found a no speed limit Autobahn in their parent's bedroom and accidentally killed himself or a friend with it, nor did anyone ever get angry and no-speed-limited someone they didn't like, no-speed-limited-Autobahns can't be brought to insurrections, drive-by-Autobahning is unheard of, drunk Autobahning is severly punished and will result in you losing your right to Autobahn. Conversely, I absolutely advocate regulating access to guns in the U.S. like access to no-speed-limited Autobahns to have a apple-to-apple discussion about this: i.e. with mandatory months long required training, strict tests, and being easily revocable for offenses. Autobahning is only allowed using registered and insured devices that have to pass strict technical tests every two years, are always visible and cannot be concealed, cannot be made at home, and have to show markings that make them and the owner easily identifiable.

Interesting to think about what other sort of supposedly environmentally-motivated campaigning that's happening will actually end up with a net negative effect on the environment.

phreeza 5y ago

It's impossible to know the counterfactual, because having a set date for leaving nuclear has also been a forcing function for ramping up renewables. So it's entirely possible that coal would have made up as much or more of the energy consumed in the hypothetical 2021 with nuclear plants still active. Of course there could have been an even more radical counterfactual where Germany decided to get out of coal by doubling down on nuclear but that hasn't been a political possibility in Germany for many years.

chelical 5y ago
The counterfactual is right next door. France has half the emissions per capita of Germany since it primarily relies on nuclear power.
- phreeza 5y ago
  French reactors are also almost all older than 30 years, and it is thought that constructing new reactors would be extremely expensive, as most megaprojects tend to be these days, so I don't think it is a fair counterfactual. Smaller renewable and natural gas plants don't seem to suffer from cost disease so much.
- ZeroGravitas 5y ago
  Interestingly, after a quick look at some stats, it's not totally obvious why Germany has higher emissions per capita. Your theory that it's France's extensive nuclear use seems unlikely though since Spain, UK, Portugal, Italy etc. all seem to be roughly on par. My initial guess is that burning coal, or worse lignite or worse peat, seems to be the decisive factor, though high industry usage also plays a part. If you just compare carbon intensity per KWh produced, then France has a notable lead, 6 times less than Germany, so I wonder what brings them back down into the pack. Is some of that electricity being wasted or used inefficiently?

secondaryacct 5y ago

It's a religion in Germany. Im French, so biased pro-nuclear. God just talking to a German abt nuclear power not being only about Fukushima and Tchernobyl puts them in a state of existensial anger you rarely see in these otherwise rational people :D

pestatije 5y ago
So your saying french nukes are definitely, positively, hundred percent, absolutely sure, bet yr granma's health, better than jap ones.
- nix23 5y ago
  You cannot generate power with a nuke, just grilling a sausage (at the right distance), and japan never had nukes, so yes french nukes are more nuk'y then "jap" ones.
nix23 5y ago
And stop unlimited speed on highways is also a good way to make them angry....oh and telling them that belgium has the better beer (which is true btw).
- foepys 5y ago
  Germans talk all high and mighty when it comes to US gun culture. But mention putting a speed limit on the Autobahn like every single other neighbor of Germany already has and they treat you like you just killed their children.
  - nautilius 5y ago
    Autobahns are safe, safer than speed restricted U.S. highways, and certainly much safer than guns being readily available. No kid ever accidentally found a no speed limit Autobahn in their parent's bedroom and accidentally killed himself or a friend with it, nor did anyone ever get angry and no-speed-limited someone they didn't like, no-speed-limited-Autobahns can't be brought to insurrections, drive-by-Autobahning is unheard of, drunk Autobahning is severly punished and will result in you losing your right to Autobahn. Conversely, I absolutely advocate regulating access to guns in the U.S. like access to no-speed-limited Autobahns to have a apple-to-apple discussion about this: i.e. with mandatory months long required training, strict tests, and being easily revocable for offenses. Autobahning is only allowed using registered and insured devices that have to pass strict technical tests every two years, are always visible and cannot be concealed, cannot be made at home, and have to show markings that make them and the owner easily identifiable.