4 ms·
> Not with an exponentially spreading disease [..] remember the lake [...] Mathemetically that's OK but cases can't just keep on doubling, we'll run out of uni
by logifail 5y ago
> Not with an exponentially spreading disease [..] remember the lake [...]
Mathemetically that's OK but cases can't just keep on doubling, we'll run out of uninfected people and/or ones vulnerable enough to get a Covid19 infection that puts them in hospital.
As a thought experiment, if tomorrow we were to magically vaccinate in one fell swoop all the under 18 year olds in Germany (or the UK, or the USA), just how many intensive/critical care hospital beds would that prevent from being filled up by those very same under 18 year olds over the coming winter?
Note that at the start of this month (September) the BMJ reported that "80% of young adults in UK are likely to [already] have antibodies"[0]
[0] https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2162 https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2162
- loup-vaillant 5y ago> cases can't just keep on doubling Indeed they cannot. That's why I wrote "until you approach saturation".