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I just spoke with someone last night that works in industrial robotics. Lead time for a new FANUC was ~50 weeks for one of his customers. This impacts my budd

by jcims 5y ago

I just spoke with someone last night that works in industrial robotics. Lead time for a new FANUC was ~50 weeks for one of his customers. This impacts my buddy b/c his company helps manufacturers build out and QC their robot lines.

nebula8804 5y ago
Is there any basis in reality for that number(50 weeks) or is it more of a 'dynamic' number that changes as supply might happen to increase/decrease? If it is a hard deadline that does not change, well I guess we can just write off 2022 for a lot of industries right now.
- jcims 5y ago
  It's all based on projections from upstream supplier commitments as well as prior customer commitments so very much subject to change in either direction. I looked and couldn't find a name for it but there's an accordion effect that flows through supply chains after a big disruption. This is just part of it. The problem is that it's not an acyclic graph, e.g. chip suppliers need robots too, so it can take a long time to shake out of the system.
  - cosmie 5y ago
    > I looked and couldn't find a name for it The bullwhip effect[1]. Although in this instance, it's inverted from its traditional direction. Generally the closer you are to the consumer/end product in the supply chain, the less impacted you are by the bullwhip effect. Tiny deviances between your actual and forecasted/expected demand can result in reactionary changes to materials orders, which grow in magnitude and volatility as you follow the downstream supplier chain. So the whip goes from those closest to the consumer upstream to those further away. Car companies canceling chip orders at the beginning of the pandemic are an example of what's generally considered the bullwhip effect. Suppliers generally have little choice but to put up with the volatility, because if they don't they risk their customer sourcing a different supplier that _will_ and losing the account entirely. That said, the power dynamics now are different. Many suppliers have more demand than their ability to service it right now, either because of constrained materials supplies themselves, lack of manpower, or lack of additional capacity. And those capacity constraints are hitting suppliers industry wide, so the "upstream" consumers of those materials have no alternatives to source. Hence why the bullwhip is going in reverse from how it typically does, where the ones closest to the end product are the ones at the mercy of the suppliers they source materials from. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect
    - jcims 5y ago
      Awesome thanks!

by jcims 5y ago

nebula8804 5y ago

Is there any basis in reality for that number(50 weeks) or is it more of a 'dynamic' number that changes as supply might happen to increase/decrease? If it is a hard deadline that does not change, well I guess we can just write off 2022 for a lot of industries right now.

jcims 5y ago
It's all based on projections from upstream supplier commitments as well as prior customer commitments so very much subject to change in either direction. I looked and couldn't find a name for it but there's an accordion effect that flows through supply chains after a big disruption. This is just part of it. The problem is that it's not an acyclic graph, e.g. chip suppliers need robots too, so it can take a long time to shake out of the system.
- cosmie 5y ago
  > I looked and couldn't find a name for it The bullwhip effect[1]. Although in this instance, it's inverted from its traditional direction. Generally the closer you are to the consumer/end product in the supply chain, the less impacted you are by the bullwhip effect. Tiny deviances between your actual and forecasted/expected demand can result in reactionary changes to materials orders, which grow in magnitude and volatility as you follow the downstream supplier chain. So the whip goes from those closest to the consumer upstream to those further away. Car companies canceling chip orders at the beginning of the pandemic are an example of what's generally considered the bullwhip effect. Suppliers generally have little choice but to put up with the volatility, because if they don't they risk their customer sourcing a different supplier that _will_ and losing the account entirely. That said, the power dynamics now are different. Many suppliers have more demand than their ability to service it right now, either because of constrained materials supplies themselves, lack of manpower, or lack of additional capacity. And those capacity constraints are hitting suppliers industry wide, so the "upstream" consumers of those materials have no alternatives to source. Hence why the bullwhip is going in reverse from how it typically does, where the ones closest to the end product are the ones at the mercy of the suppliers they source materials from. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect
  - jcims 5y ago
    Awesome thanks!