That is definitely a key component. Getting an actual bet requires two very dedicated and thoughtful people to negotiate terms and commit to possibly looking fo

That is definitely a key component. Getting an actual bet requires two very dedicated and thoughtful people to negotiate terms and commit to possibly looking foolish down the road. And I think you're also right about what managers want. I was very involved in the Lean Startup movement, which had a few years en vogue a while back. Core to it was being very disciplined about stating and testing hypotheses as quickly as possible. Used right, it can work extremely well. It got some uptake in startups, but not as much as I expected. And even less uptake in more established companies, although the methods work well there too. Why? My take is that it's not just about managerial desire, although that's important, but also managerial status. For rising through the ranks it's much more effective to talk a big game than a modest and humble one, even though the latter traits are more likely to lead to success. I hate it, of course. But we can look at examples like Theranos, Uber, and WeWork. None of them ever turned a profit, and it's possible none of them ever will produce a net return. The first CEO got caught eventually and might face some consequences one year or another. But the other two ended up incredibly rich. Who am I to say that bullshit doesn't pay?