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The issue has nothing to do with military manpower, see my sibling comment.

• dirtyid 5y ago
  >The demographics are not a problem because of how they constrain the number of troops they can field - their population is still quadruple the US, so no problems there. The problem is the economic weakness that comes with a country where each working person supports two retired people (either directly as in family or indirectly as in taxes). That doesn't work as far as we know. So China is right near the peak of their power (maybe 15-30 years away.) I still think that means they'll be patient and wait for their moment. But they can't wait forever. PRC military budget is ~2%, without global commitments that's enough to procure a military that can pace or eclipse the US in relevant domains. Demographic decline problems are mostly social, increase in per capita productivity projected to keep the economy growing. Money is not going to be an issue, and frankly inverted pyramid social problems, which will suck, isn't going to undermine military spending below what's necessary to maintain security interests. Countries much poorer than PRC spends more on military while mainstreet suffers simply due to security realities. And the security reality of PRC is it will always need to take over TW, or have sufficient military to challenge USN in its backyard. Historically, it’s not unusual for large powers to spend 5-10% or more % of GDP on defense. 2% is indefinitely sustainable goal for PRC even with demographic decline. Also Chinese demographics peaking =/= Chinese military capability and appetite for reunification peaking. Realistically PRC could rationalize 2x/3x military spending, especially in time of need.