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The US must've tappped the CCP communications in the 90s... they must've known this was their endgame. I'm surprised that only in the past few years has the Chi

The US must've tappped the CCP communications in the 90s... they must've known this was their endgame. I'm surprised that only in the past few years has the China thing really come to the forefront. This should've been in like 1996 wit the taiwan straight incident.

nine_k 5y ago
Maybe they have. But a sliver of truth, even warning about imminent great danger, is too small to overcome the inertia of the political machine. As an example, several weeks before Germany attacked USSR in 1941, multiple Soviet spies warned Moscow about the plans to attack, and approximate dates. But Germany and USSR have officially been friendlies ever since they collectively invaded and divided Poland in 1939, were actively exchanging military technology, food, and various strategic materials. Stalin rejected these reports as provocations. Then Germans nearly won over USSR in like 6 months, but it's a different story, of course, for a different political discourse.
wahern 5y ago
I studied International Affairs in the late 1990s in DC, but I was putting myself through college as a programmer. I once interviewed a Taiwanese lobbyist (IIRC she worked at or at least in concert with the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office) at the National Press Club as I was researching a paper regarding the futility of using export controls to prevent the transfer of supercomputing technology to China. At the time there was alot of talk about the Cox Report (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox_Report https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox_Report), which was a report written by a Congressional committee that detailed the use of espionage by China to acquire technology in furtherance of their nuclear and other strategic programs. The Cox Report recommended strengthening export controls to stymie the development of super computing technology in China. As a Linux geek who knew all about Beowulf Clusters and the crypto wars, I thought export controls on hardware and software technology were futile and stupid. I had wanted to do the interview to see what the other perspective was, including whether they even appreciated the ongoing revolution in technology, which through open source would be impossible to prevent leaking outside the U.S., not to mention that software would increasingly originate outside the U.S. I don't remember precisely what we discussed, but after sitting down for lunch at the National Press Club with someone either directly or indirectly part of the Taiwanese diplomatic mission, I quickly came to realize that the export controls weren't really about preventing the transfer of technology to China. I was being hopelessly naive and dumb. I mean, yes, I was probably underestimating the friction the controls would cause--it took China many more years than I ever thought it would take to become as proficient as they are now with Western technology systems, though the controls were probably only ever a small part of that. But the push for tightened export controls (a push that succeeded, at least nominally) was fundamentally about orienting national strategic policy. That was particularly true from Taiwan's perspective--it didn't matter if the U.S. could successfully stymie technology transfer to China, but rather that maintaining an ongoing effort to do so was part of the political and social processes for maintaining an alignment of interests between the U.S. and Taiwan. Anyhow, to make a long story short, the U.S. was never oblivious to China's game. But 9/11 and other domestic political dynamics (e.g. 30 years of increasingly partisan politics wherein strategic interests would eventually be turned into "wedge" issues, despite neither side actually having different strategic policies) prevented the U.S. from keeping its eye on the ball. That's not an excuse, just the way it turned out. Every president since Clinton, at the latest, has been keenly aware of the specter of China. In fact, part of bringing China into the WTO was the hope that deeper economic ties would prevent or at least mitigate open hostilities. Alot of people think that was stupid in hindsight, but I think the jury is still out on that one.
- randomopining 5y ago
  Damn nice. The question is was it even possible to stay separated from cheap and efficient labor? If it was, could they have closed the gap militarily/technologically if they had less ties...

nine_k 5y ago

Maybe they have. But a sliver of truth, even warning about imminent great danger, is too small to overcome the inertia of the political machine. As an example, several weeks before Germany attacked USSR in 1941, multiple Soviet spies warned Moscow about the plans to attack, and approximate dates. But Germany and USSR have officially been friendlies ever since they collectively invaded and divided Poland in 1939, were actively exchanging military technology, food, and various strategic materials. Stalin rejected these reports as provocations. Then Germans nearly won over USSR in like 6 months, but it's a different story, of course, for a different political discourse.

wahern 5y ago

I studied International Affairs in the late 1990s in DC, but I was putting myself through college as a programmer. I once interviewed a Taiwanese lobbyist (IIRC she worked at or at least in concert with the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office) at the National Press Club as I was researching a paper regarding the futility of using export controls to prevent the transfer of supercomputing technology to China. At the time there was alot of talk about the Cox Report (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox_Report https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox_Report), which was a report written by a Congressional committee that detailed the use of espionage by China to acquire technology in furtherance of their nuclear and other strategic programs. The Cox Report recommended strengthening export controls to stymie the development of super computing technology in China. As a Linux geek who knew all about Beowulf Clusters and the crypto wars, I thought export controls on hardware and software technology were futile and stupid. I had wanted to do the interview to see what the other perspective was, including whether they even appreciated the ongoing revolution in technology, which through open source would be impossible to prevent leaking outside the U.S., not to mention that software would increasingly originate outside the U.S. I don't remember precisely what we discussed, but after sitting down for lunch at the National Press Club with someone either directly or indirectly part of the Taiwanese diplomatic mission, I quickly came to realize that the export controls weren't really about preventing the transfer of technology to China. I was being hopelessly naive and dumb. I mean, yes, I was probably underestimating the friction the controls would cause--it took China many more years than I ever thought it would take to become as proficient as they are now with Western technology systems, though the controls were probably only ever a small part of that. But the push for tightened export controls (a push that succeeded, at least nominally) was fundamentally about orienting national strategic policy. That was particularly true from Taiwan's perspective--it didn't matter if the U.S. could successfully stymie technology transfer to China, but rather that maintaining an ongoing effort to do so was part of the political and social processes for maintaining an alignment of interests between the U.S. and Taiwan. Anyhow, to make a long story short, the U.S. was never oblivious to China's game. But 9/11 and other domestic political dynamics (e.g. 30 years of increasingly partisan politics wherein strategic interests would eventually be turned into "wedge" issues, despite neither side actually having different strategic policies) prevented the U.S. from keeping its eye on the ball. That's not an excuse, just the way it turned out. Every president since Clinton, at the latest, has been keenly aware of the specter of China. In fact, part of bringing China into the WTO was the hope that deeper economic ties would prevent or at least mitigate open hostilities. Alot of people think that was stupid in hindsight, but I think the jury is still out on that one.

randomopining 5y ago
Damn nice. The question is was it even possible to stay separated from cheap and efficient labor? If it was, could they have closed the gap militarily/technologically if they had less ties...