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> The Biden administration's abandonment of Afghanistan could be interpreted as an unwillingness on the part of the U.S. to engage in overseas wars and could ch
by SkyMarshal 5y ago
> The Biden administration's abandonment of Afghanistan could be interpreted as an unwillingness on the part of the U.S. to engage in overseas wars and could change Chinese President Xi Jinping's risk calculations, Ferguson said.
I think this is exactly backwards. Xi was previously exploiting the US’s preoccupation with the Middle East to build up China’s military and militarize South China Sea islands.
With a large chunk of the US military bogged down in a multi-front stalemate with Taliban all across Afghanistan, and maintaining stability in a destabilized Iraq, it was the perfect time for CCP to exploit their limited capabilities.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and drawdown in Iraq is clearly about freeing up those forces to refocus on China and possibly Russia, in a pivot back to Great Power competition and balance of power strategies.
The CCP is publicly trying to convince East Asia that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan means the US won’t stand by its allies there, but that’s just posturing. I’m pretty sure both those allies and the CCP know it means exactly the opposite.
- dnautics 5y agoThe CCP is not trying to convince any East Asian nation that the us is flaky. It is trying to convince a populace that attacking Taiwan is going to be bloodless for an army of it's populaces only children.
- randomopining 5y agoUS should give Taiwan nukes secretly and then taiwan announces a first strike policy.
- NonEUCitizen 5y agoUS is reason Taiwan does not have nukes: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502
- nine_k 5y agoI think since the annexation of Crimea no one country in their sane mind will surrender their nuclear weapons, as Ukraine did.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- SkyMarshal 5y agoThat's true too, but the CCP clearly wants to convince East Asia to more closely align with China than the US. That was subtext of replacing the US-led TPP with the China-led RCEP, among many other recent developments in the region. CCP's strategy in recent years is to convince all its neighbors that the US is an inevitably declining power, China will dominate the 21st century, that there is no choice for them, and that the sooner they realign with China the better it will be for them. The longer they hold out, the worse it will be for them. CCP uses everything from the Afghanistan withdrawal to 1/6 Capitol riot and everything in between to make that case.
- randomopining 5y agoI wonder what the total percentage of US forces were focused on Afghanistan. how much does Biden's move free up the US? I figure most of it was probably the logistical support side. Smart move.
- sk2020 5y agoI think there was all of one BCT in Afghanistan with the ANA doing most of the high risk work. I think it’s more likely that the politburo surrendered to allow China to expand into Central Asia. I’m sure there will be some book deals and paltry speaking fees collected in the coming years. Almost nothing the federal government does makes even a modicum of sense unless you look at it through the lens of it being a corrupt criminal organization auctioning off national assets to the highest bidder.