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I think that your example largely shows that it's not useful to make prediction markets about GDP for policies that have effectively no impact on GDP. If HN wa
by ianferrel 5y ago
I think that your example largely shows that it's not useful to make prediction markets about GDP for policies that have effectively no impact on GDP.
If HN wanted to run a prediction market for features, they should use a measure like user growth, or average score of posts that use the feature or something. Something directly related to the feature in question.
But presumably there are policies that have an impact on GDP, right? A prediction market there is going to function properly. If you want to know what tax rate or pandemic policy the government should implement, it will absolutely have an impact on GDP.
- FiggyPudding 5y agoWouldn't this also open up to foreign influence dumping money and misinformation to promote negative policy decisions. Or not even foreign influence. It's just rephrasing money = speech. Instead of spending millions to influence voters, you spend millions on positions, and you get your money back if you don't win your side? So it lets the megacorps/trade groups get richer by removing the uncertainty of lobbying in place of buying policy once you hit a certain critical threshold of money to throw around.
- ianferrel 5y agoYes, plausibly. Maybe you could limit this by requiring bets to be made by individual citizens (in the case of government policy markets) or by shareholders (in the case of a corporate market) or something. There are still avenues for corruption, but it's not clear to me that they are worse than the present state. There is of course always the chance that those attempting to manipulate the market will lose their shirts.