4 ms·

Glancing though the report you linked, it says 55-70% reduction in symptomatic disease after 1 dose and more after 2. Higher effectiveness against severe diseas

Glancing though the report you linked, it says 55-70% reduction in symptomatic disease after 1 dose and more after 2. Higher effectiveness against severe disease, hospitalisation and death. For delta, they quote a 10-15% drop of effectiveness after two/one doses respectively. That seems in line with the “official” line and different to your numbers? Or am I reading you wrong? Another nugget in there is that something like 95-97 of the population has Covid antibodies, from either disease or vaccination. I’m surprised actually that is is going as strong as it is still. I know antibodies are no silver bullet, but that means that a huge proportion of the country has either been sick already or had a vaccine recently. That seems as good as it can be for a “herd immunity” case, and yet infections are high. Hmm...

lamontcg 5y ago
> Another nugget in there is that something like 95-97 of the population has Covid antibodies That is almost certainly wrong. Vaccine uptake in under-12 is 0% and vaccine uptake in young adults is low. There's no way to make those kinds of seroprevalence numbers work.
- mikem170 5y ago
  Natural immunity? But then again, I seem to remember that the 97% number was not a fair enough random sampling.
- MatteoFrigo 5y ago
  The PHE report measures both antibodies from natural immunity, and antibodies from (vaccine or natural infection or both). (They don't have a vaccine-only measure.) The former is in the 20% range, depending on age. The latter is in the 97%+ range, again depending on age, reaching essentially 100% for older people. The big caveat is that the sample population consists of blood donors, which may or may not be representative of the overall population.
  - lamontcg 5y ago
    Are there any under-12 kids in the blood donors? And yes blood donors aren't representative of the general population due to selection effects.
    - MatteoFrigo 5y ago
      You can read the report, but the blood donor population is 17 years or older. The result of the report is that some form of immunity exists in 97%+ of the blood donors at least 17 years old, in the UK.
      - lamontcg 5y ago
        And blood donors are either socially responsible (probably vaccinated) or economically disadvantaged (probably exposed).
        mPReDiToR 5y ago
        There is no economic incentive to donate blood in England (probably UK/GB either). The most you receive is a cup of coffee and a biscuit.
deleted 5y ago
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jozvolskyef 5y ago
The numbers are in table 5.
- jozvolskyef 5y ago
  p.s. The table 5 mentioned above is in the week 36 report.

lamontcg 5y ago

> Another nugget in there is that something like 95-97 of the population has Covid antibodies That is almost certainly wrong. Vaccine uptake in under-12 is 0% and vaccine uptake in young adults is low. There's no way to make those kinds of seroprevalence numbers work.

mikem170 5y ago
Natural immunity? But then again, I seem to remember that the 97% number was not a fair enough random sampling.
MatteoFrigo 5y ago
The PHE report measures both antibodies from natural immunity, and antibodies from (vaccine or natural infection or both). (They don't have a vaccine-only measure.) The former is in the 20% range, depending on age. The latter is in the 97%+ range, again depending on age, reaching essentially 100% for older people. The big caveat is that the sample population consists of blood donors, which may or may not be representative of the overall population.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  Are there any under-12 kids in the blood donors? And yes blood donors aren't representative of the general population due to selection effects.
  - MatteoFrigo 5y ago
    You can read the report, but the blood donor population is 17 years or older. The result of the report is that some form of immunity exists in 97%+ of the blood donors at least 17 years old, in the UK.
    - lamontcg 5y ago
      And blood donors are either socially responsible (probably vaccinated) or economically disadvantaged (probably exposed).
      - mPReDiToR 5y ago
        There is no economic incentive to donate blood in England (probably UK/GB either). The most you receive is a cup of coffee and a biscuit.

deleted 5y ago

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jozvolskyef 5y ago

The numbers are in table 5.

jozvolskyef 5y ago
p.s. The table 5 mentioned above is in the week 36 report.