An interesting case study is the Nenana Ice Classic[0]. There is existing research[1] on the accuracy of the betting pool as a prediction market, but to me it

An interesting case study is the Nenana Ice Classic[0]. There is existing research[1] on the accuracy of the betting pool as a prediction market, but to me it looks like outcomes farther from the median result are not predicted well. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nenana_Ice_Classic https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nenana_Ice_Classic [1] https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2013_03_The-wisdom-of-crowds.pdf https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/201...