4 ms·

Fewer people go to college than you think

15 points by imcqueen 15y ago

pitdesi 15y ago
People commonly misinterpret this stat to mean that only 27.5% of current high school students will go to college. That's completely wrong - it's just that few of the old people in this country went to college. These days, about 68% of high school graduates end up in college (different stat than the percent that graduate)... So the "misconception" that most people go to college after high school is actually completely correct. Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/hsgec.nr0.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/hsgec.nr0.htm
- forkandwait 15y ago
  No, the original link is correct -- about 27% of people of 25 have a college degree of BA or higher. If you extend the age (say to 30 or 35), you don't see much difference. "go to [some] college" (68%) and "graduate from college by age 25" (27%) are COMPLETELY different statistics. Lots and lots of working class people graduate with decent grades, go to the local state college, don't fit in (or party too much), and drop out. And going to 3.5 years of college and dropping out versus a BA makes a HUGE difference in career outcomes later -- it is a discontinuous jump.
  - anonymous246 15y ago
    Where did you get the info that it was 27% of people aged 25 (i.e., excluding people older)? I would be very interested to know more. It bolded right in the original article that it's 25+: "Only 27.5% of the U.S population 25 and older has a bachelors degree."
  - dangrossman 15y ago
    What's the source for your number? The original article is about all people "25 and older", not "25". The census data he's quoting is "Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2005-2009": http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
- jessriedel 15y ago
  68% of high school graduates go to college, but nearly half (45%) fail to graduate within 6 years. http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/06/03/55-percent-of-college-students-graduate/UPI-15671244064567/ http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/06/03/55-percent-of-college... So, of high school graduates, only 37% (68% x 55%) get a Bachelor's. And only 85% of young adults graduate high school! https://depts.washington.edu/uwbhs/docs/HS_Graduation.pdf https://depts.washington.edu/uwbhs/docs/HS_Graduation.pdf 85% x 68% x 55% = 32% So we only expect about 32% of 30-year-olds to have a Bachelors. That means that there's only about a 5% difference (as in 32%-27%) between your data (about current yound adults) and the OP's census data (which is weighed down by old people). So I think the OP's conclusion is more or less right. That said, my prediction before I read the article was 25%, so I wasn't too surprised. This is a classic case of what happens when you're surrounded by people who are a lot like you (i.e. educated): you assume everyone is like that. And there are a lot more educated people with blogs than uneducated.
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curt 15y ago
Also there is a big difference between GOING to college and GRADUATING from college. A ton of people drop out during their first or second years.
- imcqueen 15y ago
  Agreed. I glossed over writing the title and it's misleading. I meant to refer to the number of people who obtain bachelor's degrees.
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panabee 15y ago
With certain "provable" professions, like programming, where it is possible to prove talent/fit directly -- as opposed to by proxy with a college degree or past experience -- do you see college becoming less relevant as online education and online hiring improves?
- xilun0 15y ago
  It's possible to prove talent directly in an enormous number of occupations, it's just necessary you are let work for a probation period. Of course there are situations where everybody anyway want to avoid loosing time or where a mistake could have big consequences, but in this case i don't see how programmers would need to be recruited differently from other kind of qualified jobs either. As for online hiring, I don't see how this changes anything.
- bdunbar 15y ago
  I have been told - first by the CEO of a retail chain [1] - that 'a college degree' isn't so much for talent, or fit, as a proof that the applicant can stick with something for a few years. He proved his point by hiring me [2] for a job. At that point in my life I had no degree, but I had just spent eight years in the Marines, and had done everything from programming computers (badly) to micro PC repair and LAN administration. [1] Who was, improbably, interviewing me for a job. Long story. [2] Sort of. He called me back said he _would_ have hired me but the company had just gone into Chapter 11.

15 points by imcqueen 15y ago

People commonly misinterpret this stat to mean that only 27.5% of current high school students will go to college. That's completely wrong - it's just that few of the old people in this country went to college. These days, about 68% of high school graduates end up in college (different stat than the percent that graduate)... So the "misconception" that most people go to college after high school is actually completely correct. Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/hsgec.nr0.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/hsgec.nr0.htm

forkandwait 15y ago
No, the original link is correct -- about 27% of people of 25 have a college degree of BA or higher. If you extend the age (say to 30 or 35), you don't see much difference. "go to [some] college" (68%) and "graduate from college by age 25" (27%) are COMPLETELY different statistics. Lots and lots of working class people graduate with decent grades, go to the local state college, don't fit in (or party too much), and drop out. And going to 3.5 years of college and dropping out versus a BA makes a HUGE difference in career outcomes later -- it is a discontinuous jump.
- anonymous246 15y ago
  Where did you get the info that it was 27% of people aged 25 (i.e., excluding people older)? I would be very interested to know more. It bolded right in the original article that it's 25+: "Only 27.5% of the U.S population 25 and older has a bachelors degree."
- dangrossman 15y ago
  What's the source for your number? The original article is about all people "25 and older", not "25". The census data he's quoting is "Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2005-2009": http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
jessriedel 15y ago
68% of high school graduates go to college, but nearly half (45%) fail to graduate within 6 years. http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/06/03/55-percent-of-college-students-graduate/UPI-15671244064567/ http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/06/03/55-percent-of-college... So, of high school graduates, only 37% (68% x 55%) get a Bachelor's. And only 85% of young adults graduate high school! https://depts.washington.edu/uwbhs/docs/HS_Graduation.pdf https://depts.washington.edu/uwbhs/docs/HS_Graduation.pdf 85% x 68% x 55% = 32% So we only expect about 32% of 30-year-olds to have a Bachelors. That means that there's only about a 5% difference (as in 32%-27%) between your data (about current yound adults) and the OP's census data (which is weighed down by old people). So I think the OP's conclusion is more or less right. That said, my prediction before I read the article was 25%, so I wasn't too surprised. This is a classic case of what happens when you're surrounded by people who are a lot like you (i.e. educated): you assume everyone is like that. And there are a lot more educated people with blogs than uneducated.

deleted 15y ago

[deleted]

curt 15y ago

Also there is a big difference between GOING to college and GRADUATING from college. A ton of people drop out during their first or second years.

imcqueen 15y ago
Agreed. I glossed over writing the title and it's misleading. I meant to refer to the number of people who obtain bachelor's degrees.

deleted 15y ago

[deleted]

panabee 15y ago

With certain "provable" professions, like programming, where it is possible to prove talent/fit directly -- as opposed to by proxy with a college degree or past experience -- do you see college becoming less relevant as online education and online hiring improves?

xilun0 15y ago
It's possible to prove talent directly in an enormous number of occupations, it's just necessary you are let work for a probation period. Of course there are situations where everybody anyway want to avoid loosing time or where a mistake could have big consequences, but in this case i don't see how programmers would need to be recruited differently from other kind of qualified jobs either. As for online hiring, I don't see how this changes anything.
bdunbar 15y ago
I have been told - first by the CEO of a retail chain [1] - that 'a college degree' isn't so much for talent, or fit, as a proof that the applicant can stick with something for a few years. He proved his point by hiring me [2] for a job. At that point in my life I had no degree, but I had just spent eight years in the Marines, and had done everything from programming computers (badly) to micro PC repair and LAN administration. [1] Who was, improbably, interviewing me for a job. Long story. [2] Sort of. He called me back said he _would_ have hired me but the company had just gone into Chapter 11.