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What do you mean by predictions are blind? The issue the parent is describing is (as an extreme case): I go on a prediction market for when someone will die, pu
by karpierz 5y ago
What do you mean by predictions are blind? The issue the parent is describing is (as an extreme case): I go on a prediction market for when someone will die, put all of my money on tomorrow, and then kill the person tomorrow.
You could imagine a lighter version where I ruh for some public office, bet a billion against me winning, and then drop out of the race.
- gunshai 5y agoThe latter example is easily taken care of though, because there has to be a market to take your bet if the market has no reason to believe you would win your odds are really low thus your winnings over your billion are really low. On top of that your risk is not symmetric as you've exposed your self for some to now spend what millions to campaign for you and thus bet against that pool. My point is your example is contrived and not really useful.