4 ms·

>We also know that the Covid vaccines are not immunizing, and a large amount of virus can be passed on from vaccinated, to the unvaccinated. I'm flagging this

>We also know that the Covid vaccines are not immunizing, and a large amount of virus can be passed on from vaccinated, to the unvaccinated. I'm flagging this as dubious. Everything I've seen points to smaller viral load and shorter durations for breakthroughs.

OrvalWintermute 5y ago
> I'm flagging this as dubious. Everything I've seen points to smaller viral load and shorter durations for breakthroughs. You can flag something as dubious all you want, but you are missing the point, and seeking to redefine something to meet your objectives, rather than having a science based approach. There are immunizing/sterilizing vaccines, and non-immunizing/non-sterilizing vaccines. Covid vaccines, in their present 1st and 2nd generation versions are non-immunizing/non-sterilizing. You can still get covid, just your symptoms are likely to be less. Here is an article on it, since you claimed my data was dubious. Therefore, I say your attack on my data is actually dubious. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/501677-what-is-sterilizing-immunity-and-do-we-need-it https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c... Some researchers have already proposed that the evidence of human natural immunity provides data for future vaccines in future generations to target the Covid virii in other ways beyond the mere spike protein. > Virus-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells are polyfunctional and maintained with an estimated half-life of 200 days. Interestingly, CD4+ T cell responses equally target several SARS-CoV-2 proteins, whereas the CD8+ T cell responses preferentially target the nucleoprotein, highlighting the potential importance of including the nucleoprotein in future vaccines. Taken together, these results suggest that broad and effective immunity may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients. from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.01.007 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.01.007 Let's hope you don't come up with another spurious claim!
angelzen 5y ago
There is at least one study claiming the opposite of 'smaller viral load': 'Vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals have similar viral loads in communities with a high prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant'. Same with duration: lack of symptoms does not necessarily imply smaller viral shedding. But perhaps there are other studies proving the opposite, if so could you please link? > “We don’t yet know how much transmission can happen from people who get COVID-19 after being vaccinated — for example, they may have high levels of virus for shorter periods of time,” says Prof. Walker. In the big scheme of things, the issue is not point-in-time Sept 2021. The issue is the long term evolution of the virus. We know as a fact that the rise of Delta caught the vaccine program flatfooted and was the last nail in the coffin of the ZeroCovid idea. We have an unusual Summer-time epidemic spike. We've never deployed single-protein mRNA vaccines at scale, neither in animal nor in human populations. There are legitimate concerns (voiced even by Pfizer CEO) that the virus is likely (his word, not mine) to evade vaccine protection. At which point all the 'viral load is smaller / shorter for breakthroughs' logic goes out the window. It gives me no pleasure to write the above. I secretly hope I'm wrong / under-informed. I wish that mRNA vaccines were a magic wand to wave covid away. But no amount of wishful thinking will make it so. I find the certitude of '(force) vaccinate everybody, is an absolute positive good in all possible scenarios' hard to square with the actual fragile situation we find ourselves in. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/delta-infection-unvaccinated-and-vaccinated-people-have-similar-levels-of-virus https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/delta-infection-un... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v... https://www.insider.com/pfizer-ceo-vaccine-resistant-coronavius-variant-likely-2021-8 https://www.insider.com/pfizer-ceo-vaccine-resistant-coronav...
- jonnycomputer 5y ago
  I'm guessing most of those look at viral loads in break throughs. But I'm not sure that is quite as relevant as the viral load that typically results upon exposure, i.e. my guess is that viral load in breakthrough cases looks different than in non-breakthrough cases. I think this study tries to get at this problem. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/reac...

OrvalWintermute 5y ago

> I'm flagging this as dubious. Everything I've seen points to smaller viral load and shorter durations for breakthroughs. You can flag something as dubious all you want, but you are missing the point, and seeking to redefine something to meet your objectives, rather than having a science based approach. There are immunizing/sterilizing vaccines, and non-immunizing/non-sterilizing vaccines. Covid vaccines, in their present 1st and 2nd generation versions are non-immunizing/non-sterilizing. You can still get covid, just your symptoms are likely to be less. Here is an article on it, since you claimed my data was dubious. Therefore, I say your attack on my data is actually dubious. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/501677-what-is-sterilizing-immunity-and-do-we-need-it https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c... Some researchers have already proposed that the evidence of human natural immunity provides data for future vaccines in future generations to target the Covid virii in other ways beyond the mere spike protein. > Virus-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells are polyfunctional and maintained with an estimated half-life of 200 days. Interestingly, CD4+ T cell responses equally target several SARS-CoV-2 proteins, whereas the CD8+ T cell responses preferentially target the nucleoprotein, highlighting the potential importance of including the nucleoprotein in future vaccines. Taken together, these results suggest that broad and effective immunity may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients. from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.01.007 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.01.007 Let's hope you don't come up with another spurious claim!

angelzen 5y ago

There is at least one study claiming the opposite of 'smaller viral load': 'Vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals have similar viral loads in communities with a high prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant'. Same with duration: lack of symptoms does not necessarily imply smaller viral shedding. But perhaps there are other studies proving the opposite, if so could you please link? > “We don’t yet know how much transmission can happen from people who get COVID-19 after being vaccinated — for example, they may have high levels of virus for shorter periods of time,” says Prof. Walker. In the big scheme of things, the issue is not point-in-time Sept 2021. The issue is the long term evolution of the virus. We know as a fact that the rise of Delta caught the vaccine program flatfooted and was the last nail in the coffin of the ZeroCovid idea. We have an unusual Summer-time epidemic spike. We've never deployed single-protein mRNA vaccines at scale, neither in animal nor in human populations. There are legitimate concerns (voiced even by Pfizer CEO) that the virus is likely (his word, not mine) to evade vaccine protection. At which point all the 'viral load is smaller / shorter for breakthroughs' logic goes out the window. It gives me no pleasure to write the above. I secretly hope I'm wrong / under-informed. I wish that mRNA vaccines were a magic wand to wave covid away. But no amount of wishful thinking will make it so. I find the certitude of '(force) vaccinate everybody, is an absolute positive good in all possible scenarios' hard to square with the actual fragile situation we find ourselves in. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/delta-infection-unvaccinated-and-vaccinated-people-have-similar-levels-of-virus https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/delta-infection-un... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v... https://www.insider.com/pfizer-ceo-vaccine-resistant-coronavius-variant-likely-2021-8 https://www.insider.com/pfizer-ceo-vaccine-resistant-coronav...

jonnycomputer 5y ago
I'm guessing most of those look at viral loads in break throughs. But I'm not sure that is quite as relevant as the viral load that typically results upon exposure, i.e. my guess is that viral load in breakthrough cases looks different than in non-breakthrough cases. I think this study tries to get at this problem. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/reac...