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I think it's irresponsible to act as though the climate crisis is just a matter of weather, and not how also we will respond to it. Resource shortages caused by

I think it's irresponsible to act as though the climate crisis is just a matter of weather, and not how also we will respond to it. Resource shortages caused by the climate crisis could cause resource wars, and if weapons of mass destruction are deployed during those wars, that could easily finish off homo sapiens. The mere collapse of civilization and mass death should be bad enough that we take drastic action to prevent it, but I do also think it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility of human extinction.

Manuel_D 5y ago
What shortages? The world overproduces food by no small margin. Starvation is a regional supply issue. In developed countries 30-40% of food often goes to waste. Alternative water supplies like desalination exist, and countries like Israel with constrained natural water supplies use it extensively. I think it's irresponsible to proclaim that humanity is doomed without a coherent argument as to why it won't be able to survive.
- rewgs 5y ago
  Overproduction of food is irrelevant if regional supply issues exist. So why do they exist, why are they sticky and so apparently unsolvable? Desalination is prohibitively energy-intensive. More so in a world of shrinking resources. You're arguing for precisely why these shortages are a problem but you think you're arguing against their existence. A "shortage" is not simply a hard supply number -- it's also defined by how well the supply is utilized. And the problem is precisely that humans are, and will presumably continue to be, selfish and horrible at using even sufficient or even surplus supplies. So why in the world would anyone think that we'll adequately deal with actually shortages?
  - Manuel_D 5y ago
    > So why do they exist, why are they sticky and so apparently unsolvable? Warfare and inept or corrupt government are the primary reasons. E.g. deliberate starvation as seen in the Ethiopia-Tigray conflict, and isolationism as seen in North Korea. > Desalination is prohibitively energy-intensive. More so in a world of shrinking resources. Israel produces the majority of its domestic water through desalination [1]. This is but one of several ways of improving water supply, others include wastewater reclamation or building new aqueducts. > You're arguing for precisely why these shortages are a problem but you think you're arguing against their existence. A "shortage" is not simply a hard supply number -- it's also defined by how well the supply is utilized. And the problem is precisely that humans are, and will presumably continue to be, selfish and horrible at using even sufficient or even surplus supplies. So why in the world would anyone think that we'll adequately deal with actually shortages? However bad you believe our utilization to be, the end result is still cutting world hunger by a third over the last 20 years. And more than halved since 1970. In developed countries, the percentage of land used for agriculture is often declining [2]. I think you're missing the forest for the trees: the reduction in arable land caused by climate change is more than offset by the greater yields delivered by industrialized agriculture, and the assumption that there will be a shortage in staple goods will not hold true. 1. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the... 2. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012/march/data-feature-how-is-land-used/#:~:text=U.S.%20land%20area%20covers%20nearly,to%2051%20percent%20in%202007 https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012/march/data-feature....
TheOtherHobbes 5y ago
A lot of people still haven't realised that cultural extinction is likely to happen before personal or human extinction does. Ironically we're a completely natural phenomenon - a species that outcompetes the others, but gets stuck at individual and herd intelligence without evolving collective intelligence. We're basically a brushfire species - which is probably something that happens fairly regularly on planets.
- TingPing 5y ago
  These are interesting ideas, but really we just think we can predict more of the future than we can.
plandis 5y ago
The temperatures are already increasing but the world is progressively getting less starved and malnourished over time, not more. Source: our world in data / Factfulness.
- EForEndeavour 5y ago
  Could you please link to the source for your claim? In 2018, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization reported that climate change is one of the leading drivers of global hunger [1]. "Overall, the number of hungry people grew for the third year in row in 2017, reaching a total of 821 million worldwide. The paper warns that this number will continue to rise if countries fail to tackle climate change and to build resilience to its unavoidable impacts." And just this summer, Madagascar made the news for suffering the world's first climate-induced famine [2]. [1] https://unfccc.int/news/un-warns-climate-change-is-driving-global-hunger https://unfccc.int/news/un-warns-climate-change-is-driving-g... [2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-58303792 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-58303792
  - Manuel_D 5y ago
    Rates of global hunger have fallen by about a third since 2000: https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment Key chart: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-undernourished-region https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-undernourished-regi...
    - EForEndeavour 5y ago
      That omits the second half of the trend analysis by Our World In Data. The decades-long drop in global hunger has in fact reversed in recent years, and it's misleading just to cite the preceding decades of progress without any mention of its recent reversal: However, over the last few years, the total number increased to around 663 million in 2017. This increase in hunger levels are largely a result of increases in Sub-Saharan Africa (where rates have risen by several percentage points in recent years) and small increases in the Middle East & North Africa. The UN FAO have linked this increase in undernourishment in particular to the rising extent of conflict-affected countries (which is often a leading cause of famine), and compounded by climate-related factors such as the El Niño phenomenon (which can inflict both drought and flood conditions).

Manuel_D 5y ago

What shortages? The world overproduces food by no small margin. Starvation is a regional supply issue. In developed countries 30-40% of food often goes to waste. Alternative water supplies like desalination exist, and countries like Israel with constrained natural water supplies use it extensively. I think it's irresponsible to proclaim that humanity is doomed without a coherent argument as to why it won't be able to survive.

rewgs 5y ago
Overproduction of food is irrelevant if regional supply issues exist. So why do they exist, why are they sticky and so apparently unsolvable? Desalination is prohibitively energy-intensive. More so in a world of shrinking resources. You're arguing for precisely why these shortages are a problem but you think you're arguing against their existence. A "shortage" is not simply a hard supply number -- it's also defined by how well the supply is utilized. And the problem is precisely that humans are, and will presumably continue to be, selfish and horrible at using even sufficient or even surplus supplies. So why in the world would anyone think that we'll adequately deal with actually shortages?
- Manuel_D 5y ago
  > So why do they exist, why are they sticky and so apparently unsolvable? Warfare and inept or corrupt government are the primary reasons. E.g. deliberate starvation as seen in the Ethiopia-Tigray conflict, and isolationism as seen in North Korea. > Desalination is prohibitively energy-intensive. More so in a world of shrinking resources. Israel produces the majority of its domestic water through desalination [1]. This is but one of several ways of improving water supply, others include wastewater reclamation or building new aqueducts. > You're arguing for precisely why these shortages are a problem but you think you're arguing against their existence. A "shortage" is not simply a hard supply number -- it's also defined by how well the supply is utilized. And the problem is precisely that humans are, and will presumably continue to be, selfish and horrible at using even sufficient or even surplus supplies. So why in the world would anyone think that we'll adequately deal with actually shortages? However bad you believe our utilization to be, the end result is still cutting world hunger by a third over the last 20 years. And more than halved since 1970. In developed countries, the percentage of land used for agriculture is often declining [2]. I think you're missing the forest for the trees: the reduction in arable land caused by climate change is more than offset by the greater yields delivered by industrialized agriculture, and the assumption that there will be a shortage in staple goods will not hold true. 1. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the... 2. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012/march/data-feature-how-is-land-used/#:~:text=U.S.%20land%20area%20covers%20nearly,to%2051%20percent%20in%202007 https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012/march/data-feature....

TheOtherHobbes 5y ago

A lot of people still haven't realised that cultural extinction is likely to happen before personal or human extinction does. Ironically we're a completely natural phenomenon - a species that outcompetes the others, but gets stuck at individual and herd intelligence without evolving collective intelligence. We're basically a brushfire species - which is probably something that happens fairly regularly on planets.

TingPing 5y ago
These are interesting ideas, but really we just think we can predict more of the future than we can.

plandis 5y ago

The temperatures are already increasing but the world is progressively getting less starved and malnourished over time, not more. Source: our world in data / Factfulness.

EForEndeavour 5y ago
Could you please link to the source for your claim? In 2018, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization reported that climate change is one of the leading drivers of global hunger [1]. "Overall, the number of hungry people grew for the third year in row in 2017, reaching a total of 821 million worldwide. The paper warns that this number will continue to rise if countries fail to tackle climate change and to build resilience to its unavoidable impacts." And just this summer, Madagascar made the news for suffering the world's first climate-induced famine [2]. [1] https://unfccc.int/news/un-warns-climate-change-is-driving-global-hunger https://unfccc.int/news/un-warns-climate-change-is-driving-g... [2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-58303792 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-58303792
- Manuel_D 5y ago
  Rates of global hunger have fallen by about a third since 2000: https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment Key chart: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-undernourished-region https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-undernourished-regi...
  - EForEndeavour 5y ago
    That omits the second half of the trend analysis by Our World In Data. The decades-long drop in global hunger has in fact reversed in recent years, and it's misleading just to cite the preceding decades of progress without any mention of its recent reversal: However, over the last few years, the total number increased to around 663 million in 2017. This increase in hunger levels are largely a result of increases in Sub-Saharan Africa (where rates have risen by several percentage points in recent years) and small increases in the Middle East & North Africa. The UN FAO have linked this increase in undernourishment in particular to the rising extent of conflict-affected countries (which is often a leading cause of famine), and compounded by climate-related factors such as the El Niño phenomenon (which can inflict both drought and flood conditions).