5 ms·

The “100” is specifically for the population of 21 days after first dose, i.e. those who didn’t get their second dose of vaccine. You can see the population who

The “100” is specifically for the population of 21 days after first dose, i.e. those who didn’t get their second dose of vaccine. You can see the population who fall into the “21 days after” shrinks the whole time the “Second dose” population grows. Probably there’s something specific to those people who didn’t get or were unable to get the second dose of the vaccine that elevates their risk of mortality, like poverty, low education, or poor health.

Tycho 5y ago
It would need to be a heck of a big effect to drive that sort of elevation in mortality. I suppose conceivably there is a strong adverse selection/sorting effect happening, but I’m not sure that fits with the pattern. Need to think about it. (Note also the upward trend of the second-dosed.) I think it’s more likely an issue with the way the data is collected.
- JoshuaDavid 5y ago
  I would not be surprised if there _was_ a heck of a big effect -- something along the lines of "how bad the vaccine side effects hit you is strongly correlated with general health such that people who are less healthy tend to have worse side effects, and people who have particularly bad side effects from their first dose are less likely to get a second dose". I don't have time to look into it right now, but if that were the case we should expect the mortality rate for single-dosers to go up two weeks after their first dose in countries with a two week gap between doses and twelve weeks after their first dose in countries with a twelve week gap (i.e. people in the 12 week gap countries who are 6 weeks after dose 1 should have much lower mortality than people in the 2 week gap countries who are 6 weeks after dose 1 and have not gotten a dose 2, even after controlling for age and comorbidities).

5 ms·

The “100” is specifically for the population of 21 days after first dose, i.e. those who didn’t get their second dose of vaccine. You can see the population who

by javagram 5y ago

Tycho 5y ago
It would need to be a heck of a big effect to drive that sort of elevation in mortality. I suppose conceivably there is a strong adverse selection/sorting effect happening, but I’m not sure that fits with the pattern. Need to think about it. (Note also the upward trend of the second-dosed.) I think it’s more likely an issue with the way the data is collected.
- JoshuaDavid 5y ago
  I would not be surprised if there _was_ a heck of a big effect -- something along the lines of "how bad the vaccine side effects hit you is strongly correlated with general health such that people who are less healthy tend to have worse side effects, and people who have particularly bad side effects from their first dose are less likely to get a second dose". I don't have time to look into it right now, but if that were the case we should expect the mortality rate for single-dosers to go up two weeks after their first dose in countries with a two week gap between doses and twelve weeks after their first dose in countries with a twelve week gap (i.e. people in the 12 week gap countries who are 6 weeks after dose 1 should have much lower mortality than people in the 2 week gap countries who are 6 weeks after dose 1 and have not gotten a dose 2, even after controlling for age and comorbidities).