4 ms·

Safety - yes, do we really need efficacy trials for such a change? Is it remotely likely to be worse?

• oppositelock 5y ago
  Nobody knows until you test. Biology is messy, it's not like computers. Give this a read, Immunology Is Where Intuition Goes To Die. (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-is-the-pandemics-central-mystery/614956/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/covid-19-...)
  • gizmondo 5y ago
    I happened to read it already. Are you willing to bet that the tweaked Moderna vaccine (the trials of it was announced, right?) shows worse efficacy than the original? Odds 51:49 in your favor, null hypothesis of the same efficacy is a tie. That's generous I think, if nobody knows. If not - why not?
    • Zpalmtree 5y ago
      Are you arguing we should just assume the new changes are good and roll them out without testing?
      • gizmondo 5y ago
        Yes, without large scale randomized efficacy trials. That's what we do with the flu.