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TW nuclear breakout window is long gone. The island is now thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence. There is no opportunity post 90s to secretly start up a n

TW nuclear breakout window is long gone. The island is now thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence. There is no opportunity post 90s to secretly start up a nuclear program without getting glassed by PRC first, and with full endorsement from every nuclear power who doesn't want to see nukes proliferate to mid-tier nations.

Retric 5y ago
That’s a very optimistic take on PRC intelligence operations. Historically countries simply aren’t nearly as good at gathering intelligence as you might think. Further we don’t know what intelligence the PRC has gathered. If China believes Taiwan has nuclear weapons or the capacity to assemble them quickly, there is going to be very little change in rhetoric from China.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  There's no reason to talk in generalities. PRC's thorough infiltration of TW military/industry and fact that ROC military brass are prodominantly KMT with pro-PRC sympathies has been intelligence consensus for decades. This isn't speculation, it's more or less accepted fact that guides US selling TW 2nd/3rd tier weapon platforms because they know anything that filters to TW military will finds it's way to PRC. Like everyone knows Israel intelligence has been very proficient in infiltrating Iran's nuclear program. PRC infiltration of TW is more comprehensive on whole of society level. No reason to pretend otherwise. To your edit: any credible nuclear break out threat from TW would be taken out within 10minutes from PRC rocketry. Of all PRC redlines, the most serious are TW ones. PRC has fought with nuclear USSR and US over less important core interests while PRC wasn't nuclear. PRC will absolutely preemptively crush any TW nuclear efforts.
  - Retric 5y ago
    I don’t disagree that the PRC is gathering a lot of intelligence, but that’s a long way from saying they gather all relevant information. As to a preemptive strike that’s extremely unprecedented for China. It would definitely be considered at the highest levels, but would they act is a much larger question especially if they discovered functional nuclear weapons. Taiwan meanwhile benefits of China did such a strike on a non nuclear weapon manufacturing factory so could be giving them false intelligence etc. This stuff just has a lot more uncertainty than you might assume.
    - dirtyid 5y ago
      > a lot more uncertainty than you might assume There is also more assumed uncertainty than reality. In terms of degrees of espionage, modern PRC's intelligence gathering on TW is probably the most comprehensive apparatus anywhere. Every few years, minister level intelligence assets get exposed in TW defense. There is blind assumption and there is consensus for those that follow the space. There aren't any credible analysis that suggests TW has hidden nukes or can conduct breakout nuke development without PRC being aware. > would they act See edit of all the times PRC acted, with explicit prior warnings on when core redlines are crossed. It's not only precedent but interventions are near certainty. Respectfully, TW trying to bait PRC with false nuclear proliferation is counterproductive, just about the only consensus security council states and current nuclear powers have is they don't want more mid-tier nations getting the bomb. Of all the reasons the PRC could get away with attacking TW with relatively little cost, stopping nuclear proliferation is at the top.

Retric 5y ago

That’s a very optimistic take on PRC intelligence operations. Historically countries simply aren’t nearly as good at gathering intelligence as you might think. Further we don’t know what intelligence the PRC has gathered. If China believes Taiwan has nuclear weapons or the capacity to assemble them quickly, there is going to be very little change in rhetoric from China.

dirtyid 5y ago
There's no reason to talk in generalities. PRC's thorough infiltration of TW military/industry and fact that ROC military brass are prodominantly KMT with pro-PRC sympathies has been intelligence consensus for decades. This isn't speculation, it's more or less accepted fact that guides US selling TW 2nd/3rd tier weapon platforms because they know anything that filters to TW military will finds it's way to PRC. Like everyone knows Israel intelligence has been very proficient in infiltrating Iran's nuclear program. PRC infiltration of TW is more comprehensive on whole of society level. No reason to pretend otherwise. To your edit: any credible nuclear break out threat from TW would be taken out within 10minutes from PRC rocketry. Of all PRC redlines, the most serious are TW ones. PRC has fought with nuclear USSR and US over less important core interests while PRC wasn't nuclear. PRC will absolutely preemptively crush any TW nuclear efforts.
- Retric 5y ago
  I don’t disagree that the PRC is gathering a lot of intelligence, but that’s a long way from saying they gather all relevant information. As to a preemptive strike that’s extremely unprecedented for China. It would definitely be considered at the highest levels, but would they act is a much larger question especially if they discovered functional nuclear weapons. Taiwan meanwhile benefits of China did such a strike on a non nuclear weapon manufacturing factory so could be giving them false intelligence etc. This stuff just has a lot more uncertainty than you might assume.
  - dirtyid 5y ago
    > a lot more uncertainty than you might assume There is also more assumed uncertainty than reality. In terms of degrees of espionage, modern PRC's intelligence gathering on TW is probably the most comprehensive apparatus anywhere. Every few years, minister level intelligence assets get exposed in TW defense. There is blind assumption and there is consensus for those that follow the space. There aren't any credible analysis that suggests TW has hidden nukes or can conduct breakout nuke development without PRC being aware. > would they act See edit of all the times PRC acted, with explicit prior warnings on when core redlines are crossed. It's not only precedent but interventions are near certainty. Respectfully, TW trying to bait PRC with false nuclear proliferation is counterproductive, just about the only consensus security council states and current nuclear powers have is they don't want more mid-tier nations getting the bomb. Of all the reasons the PRC could get away with attacking TW with relatively little cost, stopping nuclear proliferation is at the top.