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The solution for Taiwan is obvious. Nuclearization. The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses thei

by esyir 5y ago

The solution for Taiwan is obvious. Nuclearization. The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite.

tablespoon 5y ago
> The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite. That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes. Would their system be able to survive a first strike? Would it be able to penetrate hundreds of miles of Chinese air defenses or defeat an ABM system? IIRC, ABM systems are far easier to build if you're willing to put nukes on the interceptors. From my armchair, Taiwan's best bet is to create an Israeli-style reserve army that can mobilize most of the population to fight a short, intense war.
- gruez 5y ago
  >That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes do they need to target beijing? Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan. That doesn't address the lack of MAD nor any vulnerability to a first strike.
    - ginko 5y ago
      It's you who brought up MAD. For a small country like Taiwan it may be enough to make the attack painful enough that it's not worth it to larger power. This essentially was(and is) Switzerland's defence strategy.
      - tablespoon 5y ago
        > For a small country like Taiwan it may be enough to make the attack painful enough that it's not worth it to larger power. This essentially was(and is) Switzerland's defence strategy. It's worth noting that China isn't just "a larger power," it has a particular fixation on Taiwan. It may not be deterred as easily as you think. IIRC, Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons is one of their stated red lines that would trigger a war. If Taiwan managed to nuke a Chinese city when it's invaded, it would probably just make the Chinese madder.
        worrycue 5y ago
        Doesn’t matter if the CCP has a fixation on Taiwan. It will still have to take public opinion into consideration. People who are at risk of getting nuked aren’t going to take the CCP’s reckless behaviour sitting down. The CCP will have quite a mess on its hands. P.S. Their military might not even be willing to invade if Taiwan is going to be lobbing nukes left and right, and possibly right into the invading force. Look at how China had to redrawn from their skirmish with India after they lose a few people to weather - and simply because the troops wanted to head home for Chinese New Year.
- tomjen3 5y ago
  Taiwan is less than twice the size of Israel, so they would only need to create a few bombs, attach perpetual countdown timers to them and smuggle them into Beijing. If China attacks Taiwan, the bombs don't get reset and go of. If China does the same to Taiwan they have a mutally assured destruction.
- baybal2 5y ago
  > Would it be able to penetrate hundreds of miles of Chinese air defenses or defeat an ABM system? Cruise missile flying 100m off the ground. For practical purposes, cruise missiles are the real wunderwaffe which is impossible to stop, not ballistic missiles.
christkv 5y ago
They would need to develop something like the minuteman missiles but on mobile launchers to be able to retaliate with success.
mullen 5y ago
This would be a terrible idea for Taiwan since every country that supports Taiwan is down wind of China. South Korea, Japan and the US do not want nuclear fallout coming over their territory. It makes coming to Taiwan's aid a lot more difficult both logistically and politically.
- worrycue 5y ago
  Wouldn’t that motivate the other countries more to help out so it doesn’t come to Taiwan launching nukes and irradiating the entire region?

by esyir 5y ago

The solution for Taiwan is obvious. Nuclearization. The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite.

tablespoon 5y ago

> The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite. That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes. Would their system be able to survive a first strike? Would it be able to penetrate hundreds of miles of Chinese air defenses or defeat an ABM system? IIRC, ABM systems are far easier to build if you're willing to put nukes on the interceptors. From my armchair, Taiwan's best bet is to create an Israeli-style reserve army that can mobilize most of the population to fight a short, intense war.

gruez 5y ago
>That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes do they need to target beijing? Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan. That doesn't address the lack of MAD nor any vulnerability to a first strike.
  - ginko 5y ago
    It's you who brought up MAD. For a small country like Taiwan it may be enough to make the attack painful enough that it's not worth it to larger power. This essentially was(and is) Switzerland's defence strategy.
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > For a small country like Taiwan it may be enough to make the attack painful enough that it's not worth it to larger power. This essentially was(and is) Switzerland's defence strategy. It's worth noting that China isn't just "a larger power," it has a particular fixation on Taiwan. It may not be deterred as easily as you think. IIRC, Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons is one of their stated red lines that would trigger a war. If Taiwan managed to nuke a Chinese city when it's invaded, it would probably just make the Chinese madder.
      - worrycue 5y ago
        Doesn’t matter if the CCP has a fixation on Taiwan. It will still have to take public opinion into consideration. People who are at risk of getting nuked aren’t going to take the CCP’s reckless behaviour sitting down. The CCP will have quite a mess on its hands. P.S. Their military might not even be willing to invade if Taiwan is going to be lobbing nukes left and right, and possibly right into the invading force. Look at how China had to redrawn from their skirmish with India after they lose a few people to weather - and simply because the troops wanted to head home for Chinese New Year.
tomjen3 5y ago
Taiwan is less than twice the size of Israel, so they would only need to create a few bombs, attach perpetual countdown timers to them and smuggle them into Beijing. If China attacks Taiwan, the bombs don't get reset and go of. If China does the same to Taiwan they have a mutally assured destruction.
baybal2 5y ago
> Would it be able to penetrate hundreds of miles of Chinese air defenses or defeat an ABM system? Cruise missile flying 100m off the ground. For practical purposes, cruise missiles are the real wunderwaffe which is impossible to stop, not ballistic missiles.

christkv 5y ago

They would need to develop something like the minuteman missiles but on mobile launchers to be able to retaliate with success.

mullen 5y ago

This would be a terrible idea for Taiwan since every country that supports Taiwan is down wind of China. South Korea, Japan and the US do not want nuclear fallout coming over their territory. It makes coming to Taiwan's aid a lot more difficult both logistically and politically.

worrycue 5y ago
Wouldn’t that motivate the other countries more to help out so it doesn’t come to Taiwan launching nukes and irradiating the entire region?